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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Fugging', friggin' did it again ...

..THE GAINESVILLE CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 12 2020

VALID TODAY AS OF 0500 PM LOCAL TIME.
...............................................................

TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 85R 2:09 PM
 
NoSnowATL said:
6f08750ed1f0c5e097771ae6868509bb.jpg


5 minutes after his post he retweet’s this?


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These guys and their flip flop tweets are making my neck hurt. It’s like watching Andre Agassi vs. Pete Sampras in a Wimbledon volley.
 
SD said:
But I thought the -aam was the problem per maxar?

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-AAM indeed is one of the problems per Maxar for SE cold because it has a decent correlation to a warmer SE due to a stronger SER/La Ninalike pattern. BAMwx is in the Midwest, not the SE (and they often speak as if the US were one dimensional) and has a totally different perspective just like JB in PA (we know JB loves snow in his BY) and Judah in Boston (he recently tweeted he wants snow so badly there) also have very different perspectives, especially because each of them is a weenie and each one's forecasts seem to be often affected by these desires. Keep in mind that nowhere near the entire US is affected the same way by the same index. From all I've learned from Maxar, those in the SE who like cold should want a
+AAM.

Maxar is not the least bit weenie influenced in their forecasts but rather by their desire to be accurate no matter how weenie the individual mets may be.

From today's Maxar 11-15 day forecast:

"11-15 Day

The forecast undergoes cold changes during this period, focused in the Eastern Half. This comes with improved model consistency in progressing high pressure through the region in the early stages of the period. Below and much below normal temperatures are forecast for then. Following its exit, another cold air mass builds into the North-Central, and the forecast allows for a period of moderation in the South and East as this occurs. The lack of Arctic blocking alongside the MJO in phase 7 have a role in the forecast, which gains +8.02 GWHDDs from Friday outlook.

Risks:
Risks are colder in the South and East based on the models and correlations associated with the +GLAAM and +PNA.

*Edited for typo
 
If the ensembles stopped at 240, I'd probably feel discouraged. Fortunately, they continue on into the ever-accurate abyss of the 10-15 day period and start to get better again.

The 240 Euro and GFS Ops look pretty similar with a zonal type of a look, which I don't really care for...because now, we find ourselves in the familiar position of hoping the 10-15 day period shapes up. The best indications we have suggest the pattern will improve to a much colder look. So, we'll hope for that.

What I'd really like to see is some of those colder ensemble configurations make it consistently under D10 and also be the case that the operationals concur. If there is skill to be had at around D8, the Ops will have more of it. I doubt a really awesome cold pattern is going to be shown consistently in the ensembles and sneak up on the Ops, particularly inside of D10.

At D10, the coldest anoms are in a far away land. They look to come back to our hemisphere soon after, but I find myself uneasy waiting for all of that to play out.

I'm not at all canceling the pattern or winter or anything, and I am grateful that we are seeing some trackable things showing up. But the major features that need to move and set up favorably to bring us a sustained colder pattern, are not showing stability and consistency in the LR.

Last week, we were hoping the EPS was right and the GEFS would catch up. Now I read some posts today hoping that the GEFS was right and the EPS would catch back up. That's not really how we want the game to play out. If a sustained cold pattern is to set in, the bouncing around should stop soon.
 
pcbjr said:
You would have a Board meltdown ...
But more substantively, there is nothing to pin-a-tail-on-the-donkey on model wise ... yet ... it's gut and history time
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I like your analogy of model runs as movies. They may be nonfiction or they may be fiction. In reality, they're mostly a combo.

I will say this: I just analyzed the HDDs of the GEFS from Friday and today and the GEFS keeps slipping pretty badly…..the mirage effect. OTOH, the often superior EPS has held very steady.
 
Rain Cold said:
If the ensembles stopped at 240, I'd probably feel discouraged. Fortunately, they continue on into the ever-accurate abyss of the 10-15 day period and start to get better again.

The 240 Euro and GFS Ops look pretty similar with a zonal type of a look, which I don't really care for...because now, we find ourselves in the familiar position of hoping the 10-15 day period shapes up. The best indications we have suggest the pattern will improve to a much colder look. So, we'll hope for that.

What I'd really like to see is some of those colder ensemble configurations make it consistently under D10 and also be the case that the operationals concur. If there is skill to be had at around D8, the Ops will have more of it. I doubt a really awesome cold pattern is going to be shown consistently in the ensembles and sneak up on the Ops, particularly inside of D10.

At D10, the coldest anoms are in a far away land. They look to come back to our hemisphere soon after, but I find myself uneasy waiting for all of that to play out.

I'm not at all canceling the pattern or winter or anything, and I am grateful that we are seeing some trackable things showing up. But the major features that need to move and set up favorably to bring us a sustained colder pattern, are not showing stability and consistency in the LR.

Last week, we were hoping the EPS was right and the GEFS would catch up. Now I read some posts today hoping that the GEFS was right and the EPS would catch back up. That's not really how we want the game to play out. If a sustained cold pattern is to set in, the bouncing around should stop soon.
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I'm with you. I seriously doubt we'll be getting some great pattern. We'll always have to fight marginal temps and the nw trend regardless. Just how it is down here.
 
Areas between Augusta and Columbia are getting socked with storms right now. I been watching them training there all day. Radar has rainfall estimates between 3-5 inches in some places and still pouring now.
88C5E9AD-899A-4566-BEDC-3AFA92B2BC4F.png

Will be interesting to see how things play out around here when the front pulls farther north and stalls again tomorrow. Might see a couple areas get hit by training storms so there may be some isolated flooding issues. Should be interesting to watch play out.
 
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Rain Cold said:
If the ensembles stopped at 240, I'd probably feel discouraged. Fortunately, they continue on into the ever-accurate abyss of the 10-15 day period and start to get better again.

The 240 Euro and GFS Ops look pretty similar with a zonal type of a look, which I don't really care for...because now, we find ourselves in the familiar position of hoping the 10-15 day period shapes up. The best indications we have suggest the pattern will improve to a much colder look. So, we'll hope for that.

What I'd really like to see is some of those colder ensemble configurations make it consistently under D10 and also be the case that the operationals concur. If there is skill to be had at around D8, the Ops will have more of it. I doubt a really awesome cold pattern is going to be shown consistently in the ensembles and sneak up on the Ops, particularly inside of D10.

At D10, the coldest anoms are in a far away land. They look to come back to our hemisphere soon after, but I find myself uneasy waiting for all of that to play out.

I'm not at all canceling the pattern or winter or anything, and I am grateful that we are seeing some trackable things showing up. But the major features that need to move and set up favorably to bring us a sustained colder pattern, are not showing stability and consistency in the LR.

Last week, we were hoping the EPS was right and the GEFS would catch up. Now I read some posts today hoping that the GEFS was right and the EPS would catch back up. That's not really how we want the game to play out. If a sustained cold pattern is to set in, the bouncing around should stop soon.
Click to expand...

I think it’s coming, I hope. The GEFS rushed things as usual. The key is getting the trough in the west coast to the south/aleutians and drive our +PNA/-EPO.

Failed EPO

1DEE30AE-96E2-4995-B963-38B8A687E3A1.gif

EPO build with trough retrogression
EDF2B30A-2756-46CF-9F52-3A99B3A6414E.gif
 
Somewhat good model agreement...assuming we can get the EPS to come around to the -EPO idea. With how active it looks to remain it’s tough to not be optimistic.

3E39DD0E-A178-4310-978A-78F06CF25C04.png3A95F85B-AC16-428F-9CAE-D38080467A65.png
 
I'm getting little excited for a winter storm, but not by a whole lot. I'm still skeptical and it's still meh for a winter storm. I have bets that the subtropical jet will become less active and suppressed as the colder pattern takes place. We'll still need to watch for a Gulf low during the colder pattern though. If the subtropical jet does become less active and suppressed, I wouldn't really like that. I would be all in if the subtropical jet would continuously pump moisture (like it's going to this week) as deep cold air pushes south and east. Could you image how much snow we would end up getting if that was the case? Snowfall amounts would probably be in feet! Then again on the other hand, I'll take a Gulf low that can bring snow. But the problem about Gulf lows they tend to bring WAA. I'd much prefer waves of moisture (overrunning) that would continuously bring snowfall. We'll see how things turn out throughout this week. If there's going to be a winter storm, we shall start seeing some consistency on the operational models anytime.

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