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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Cad Wedge NC said:
You do realize that the Euro has the best verification scores of any other global model.... That's why they call it the King. Sometimes it is out-to-lunch, but in a stable pattern, it is hard to bet against it.
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Yep he’s right. Gfs is a hot mess and is not reliable at all. Once the Euro shows a storm it needs to be watched


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Jessy89 said:
Yep he’s right. Gfs is a hot mess and is not reliable at all. Once the Euro shows a storm it needs to be watched


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And it hasn't shown one and it won't for the next 2 weeks. Zonal and 50s is just as much of a shutout pattern as a torch!
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
No two ways about it though, this is rough and will be hard to overcome. Lots of places with much better seasonal snow averages are still due their share. It’s just hard to believe we’re going to get ours this year given the circumstances View attachment 31491
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I wouldn't sweat the next couple of weeks as make it or break it. Late Feb and early to mid March could easily take care of that since that's when I'm leaning toward it finally turning mainly BN for an extended period. You won't see this on any model and the models have been crap, regardless. This is about analogs. Also, by then the MJO should finally be in a good position for a decent amount of time.
 
I know this is the long range GFS OP, but good gawd this look! Hope to see that look in the shorter range.
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LoganElliott40 said:
I trust GFS more than EURO
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The Euro does have a higher verification score, but I can tell you the GFS can be good at "sniffing" out storms. Also, the GFS isn't that bad a model in the shorter range. In the mid to long range, it loses resolution, by a good bit.
LoganElliott40 said:
No snow with crappy low tracks like this.
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That's the long range, this will change I can promise you that. It's better to look at the pattern in the longer range at the large scale. Mesoscale features come better "in focus" as the time frame comes into short range view.

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Jessy89 said:
You was saying you thought we see something last week of Jan. Do you still feel that way?


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I do, I think we could still see a significant snow storm sometime. I just don't know when exactly. There actually could be multiple/several chances of winter storm development through early February.

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This needs a lot of work to get the cold air in. But nice track


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olhausen said:
Nope and I’ll put money on that. For one we got a half inch in November that stayed on the ground for a few days actually so technically we already got some snow this season. We Haven’t had snow yet since the calendar flipped to 2020 but I’ve never had a winter that didn’t at least see flurries from the Jan-March time period. I’ve lived here for 14 years now so I’d be shocked if we don’t see a flake the rest of this winter. I’ll even go out on limb and say February will be cooler then most of us are excepting. Nothing scientific about this thinking and more so due to the law of averages. The last 3 February’s have all been well above average making each new February we enter much less likely to be warmer then average also. At some point the law of averages will even us out. I see some people posting about how February’s use to produce acting as if the month won’t once again produce winter and cold for us at some point.
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And just like that I’ve got Fluries flying right now with a temp of 20 degrees. Lol
 
Okay so according to the new GFS we could go from January 28tj through at least February 5th without going below freezing. We are the in the heart of winter folks. This is bogus
 
It's a sad commentary in itself that we're relegated to celebrating seasonal temps in winter. 55 and 65 suck equally IMO. 75-80, different story. But any way you slice it, it ain't gonna feel or look like we want it to for a while. Hopefully, later in Feb, we'll get a few table scraps before calendar Spring sets in.
 
I have some questions about the MJO.

1. What does it mean for us in the Southeastern US when the MJO is weak/non-active? (within the circle on MJO diagrams) Does that mean the temperatures could go either way, above or below normal? As well as precipitation?

2. Are there any best accurate MJO forecasts that have a good verification score?

3. Where can I view the forecasts of the MJO from different models?

Thanks in advance!

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WxWatch said:
I have some questions about the MJO.

1. What does it mean for us in the Southeastern US when the MJO is weak/non-active? (within the circle on MJO diagrams) Does that mean the temperatures could go either way, above or below normal? As well as precipitation?

2. Are there any best accurate MJO forecasts that have a good verification score?

3. Where can I view the forecasts of the MJO from different models?

Thanks in advance!

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DaculaWeather.com is good site to see all MJO models.


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