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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Sleet City USA said:
Well we can add the NAM to list of models I hate
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One day you youngsters will learn to listen to us old timers! We've lived through many failures. We don't just complain to complain. At least I don't. Now we may go to snow and probably will, but accumulation will be east and south of here. We've been snow holed just like the NAM showed due to low rates and BL issues. Waiting for rain to change over here is failure 80% of the time.
 
ncskywarn said:
View attachment 36030
Mesoscale Discussion 0126
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

Areas affected...Parts of northeastern North Carolina and
southeastern Virginia

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 202101Z - 210000Z

SUMMARY...Snow, occasionally at heavy rates near or in excess of 1
inch per hour, appears increasingly probable within a corridor
across the North Carolina piedmont into southeast
Virginia/northeastern North Carolina Tidewater region by 6-7 PM EST.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent, downstream of a low-amplitude short
wave trough digging into the lower Ohio Valley, is supporting a
broad shield of precipitation now overspreading a stalled or slowly
moving frontal zone extending across much of the Southeast. With
the continuing east-southeastward progression of the mid-level
impulse, models indicate that a surface frontal wave will gradually
deepen east of the Carolina coast through early evening, while
lower/mid tropospheric frontogenesis intensifies across the southern
Mid Atlantic Coast region.

Across the North Carolina coastal plain into the Tidewater of
northeastern North Carolina and southeastern Virgnia, the latest
Rapid Refresh suggests that lift will become increasingly maximized
in the mixed-phase layer supportive of large dendritic ice crystal
growth. While forecast soundings suggest that temperature profiles,
particularly near the surface and perhaps within a layer between
850-700 mb, are still marginal for snow reaching the surface across
much of this corridor, modification is ongoing in response to
evaporative cooling and melting of precipitation. This will
continue as precipitation persists and rates intensify.

Aided by the onset of diurnal boundary layer cooling, and perhaps
weak low-level cold advection in the wake of the frontal wave, a
transition to snow appears probable by 23-00Z, if not before, along
a corridor extending from roughly the Raleigh NC metropolitan area
into the Hampton Roads vicinity. It appears that this probably will
include general snow rates in excess of 1/2 inch per hour, with
rates occasionally on the order of 1 inch per hour in one or more
developing narrow heavier bands, which may continue into mid/late
evening.

..Kerr.. 02/20/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 36067971 36477903 36987610 36177612 35457820 35407917
36067971
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Yes! Bring it! My prediction is looking pretty good now.
 
Chris Justus refuses to adjust to the fact that its colder where the snow is falling. Just keeps on showing the in-house model and yammering about how it'll crash from north of 85
 
Brick Tamland said:
Why so salty?
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Because. You're like the suck up kid in class that knows the answer to everything, but basically you don't.You vomit out things other people say to try and sound like you now what you're doing when in reality you don't. Other times you do what you're doing now, and that is make a point and keep hammering the damn thing until someone wants to reach through the computer screen and choke the life out of you. You've made some nice points, now take your win and quit harping on it. I'm sure I'm not the only one who is sick and tired of reading the same thing over ad nauseam.
 
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