We're in the Euro's wheelhouse, so we probably are going to have a good idea by the time the 12z is over on Sunday. But one thing is certain, although we're stricter than we used to be elsewhere, starting threads has nothing to do with this. I remember being a young kid that started a thread for 2/12/10 several days beforehand, I don't remember the exact date, but it was over a week before and at first I blocked off what was probably about 5 days.
Now, y'all probably recognize 2/12/10 as it was a bingo (and I posted a picture about it yesterday). Nerd time, but I started the thread that ended the snow shutout in Augusta and east on I-20 in Columbia on an old forum that's gone. Today I wouldn't do that (and I likely wouldn't have on another old forum a few years later), but most of us will attest, there are plenty of times, although most are likely a few years back, where we've tracked storms for days before and they actually came true. There is also one infamous time from back in my early times that ended up being called Voldemort as we had a massive winter storm show up and it disappeared and didn't return.