• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

Status
Not open for further replies.
People still bad mouthing the Euro, while various short range modeling is starting to show an ominous warm nose. It was dry for a few days, sure, but calling the previous runs of the NAM (that is also backing off some of the ludicrous snow amounts) compared, as the clear winner, is silly until verification time.

Euro alerted everyone to a potential event to even begin with, lol.
 
Shawn said:
People still bad mouthing the Euro, while various short range modeling is starting to show an ominous warm nose. It was dry for a few days, sure, but calling the previous runs of the NAM (that is also backing off some of the ludicrous snow amounts) compared, as the clear winner, is silly until verification time.

Euro alerted everyone to a potential event to even begin with, lol.
Click to expand...

Actually I believe the long range GFS was hinting at this threat more consistently than the Euro was... and Euro may end up being right but I highly doubt it. Usually inside 48 hours a NAM/RGEM blend ends up being pretty close.
 
snowlover91 said:
Actually I believe the long range GFS was hinting at this threat more consistently than the Euro was... and Euro may end up being right but I highly doubt it. Usually inside 48 hours a NAM/RGEM blend ends up being pretty close.
Click to expand...

I'm not calling the Euro's forecast 3 days ago correct either. I'm just saying the foot + amounts on the NAM likely wrong now that we are seeing temperature profiles better too. The Euro went dry down to almost CAE at some points also, with a weak mess.

Idk about any kind of long long range gfs, I just noticed the big storm that showed up on the Euro especially through this area. Maybe it was for NC, but we gets lots of crazy runs when a model runs 384 hours out.
 
snowlover91 said:
Actually I believe the long range GFS was hinting at this threat more consistently than the Euro was... and Euro may end up being right but I highly doubt it. Usually inside 48 hours a NAM/RGEM blend ends up being pretty close.
Click to expand...
GFS was a lakes cuttter while the EURO was showing Deep South overrunning early last week
 
SD said:
I can't wait for my hours of sleet and rain while brick gets snow!!!! It's going to be so fun watching others jackpot while I'm miserable. Is that what you are looking for brick?
Click to expand...

tenor.gif
 
I'm just glad that we members from Columbia/Midlands (Hell), were able to accept the loss early on and have had time to grieve.
From CAE recently:

Thursday night, the low is forecast to shift farther off the
coast. Further cooling will occur on the backside of the
departing low. Precipitation should end from west to east. We
used a top-down method with the GFS and forecasted a rain and
snow mix shifting farther south. The mix may reach a Saluda,
Columbia, and Bishopville line. Little to no snow accumulation
is expected at this time due to a combination of temperatures
above freezing and surfaces generally being warm. The main issue
may be black ice as temperatures drop below freezing just after
the precipitation departs late Friday night.
Click to expand...
 
Shawn said:
People still bad mouthing the Euro, while various short range modeling is starting to show an ominous warm nose. It was dry for a few days, sure, but calling the previous runs of the NAM (that is also backing off some of the ludicrous snow amounts) compared, as the clear winner, is silly until verification time.

Euro alerted everyone to a potential event to even begin with, lol.
Click to expand...

And then it sucked until today.
 
Shawn said:
I'm not calling the Euro's forecast 3 days ago correct either. I'm just saying the foot + amounts on the NAM likely wrong now that we are seeing temperature profiles better too. The Euro went dry down to almost CAE at some points also, with a weak mess.

Idk about any kind of long long range gfs, I just noticed the big storm that showed up on the Euro especially through this area. Maybe it was for NC, but we gets lots of crazy runs when a model runs 384 hours out.
Click to expand...

Yeah my friend and I started watching this around 240 hours out on the GFS. Tidbits doesn't go back in time far enough to show all those but here is hour 204 from the Feb 12th GFS run.

1582117828120.png

IMO those runs from 204 to 240 hours out were remarkably similar to the overall precip evolution we are looking at in the Carolinas. It lost the storm a bit and then starting with the Feb 14 00z run the GFS once again had this as a consistent threat while the Euro showed it for 2-3 runs before going away from it into utter suppression. The Euro JUST recently caved to the snowier solutions in the 00z and 06z runs while the GFS has been showing a snowier solution for days. IMO with how poorly the Euro has been handling this and with it being an outlier I don't feel like it carries much weight with this sytem tbh. Some models perform better in different setups and the Euro/UK are struggling with this one.
 
SD said:
Maybe you and Don should start a forecasting service. Weenies 'R Us
Click to expand...

I would never let brick do that to himself. He’s grown so much over the last few years . We can’t allow him to do something like that and take 10 steps back


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Thor said:
Just think about if you would of made a map to draw that out first, you could of held that up for eternity casting dispersions upon the masses of Brick Doubters, alas you couldn't rise to the challenge.
Click to expand...

Why would I need a map? I said exactly where I thought the zone would be for the sweet spot.
 
The euro skill level for this storm went over like a fart in church.. crazy the NAM and American gang of models out preformed the usual king .. must really make the euro defenders shake at night


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
The euro skill level for this storm went over like a fart in church.. crazy the NAM and American gang of models out preformed the usual king .. must really make the euro defenders shake at night


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Defending the Euro with great honor is my pleasure. I'd never shake in the face of war with my best weather friend, the Euro.
 
"A chance of rain and snow before 1am, then a chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 27. North wind 7 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible."

Less than one inch? NWS RAH really seems to be thinking there will be too much rain mixed in for accumulation. Also, the chance of precipitation is probably higher than 40%.
 
You know how they tie people down in interrogation rooms and force them to watch something over and over until they break or believe in it? Well, I think that might be a situation we have over here. If you continually hammer home the same point over and over, eventually, they will follow. This is all part of their master plan. They will have a cult following, very soon.

3pncup.jpg
 
I really don’t understand why NWS RAH has totals so low in their WFO coverage area. I think they’re going to have to play catch-up big time later.
 
Shawn said:
Always easier to add than to take away.
Click to expand...
You’re right, but as things stand they’re basically forecasting a nonevent 24-30 hours before it starts. I think something like 2-4” would be more reasonable which introduces the idea of a warning criteria storm without freaking everyone out that it’s going to be a big dog, and would allow them to step back to 1-2” pretty easily.

The way they’re handling it almost reminds me of Christmas/Boxing Day 2010. But they’re the Mets, not me...
 
SD said:
I can't wait for my hours of sleet and rain while brick gets snow!!!! It's going to be so fun watching others jackpot while I'm miserable. Is that what you are looking for brick?
Click to expand...

It would be funny...we finally get the models to agree on shifting NW to put substantial precip over us, models all show snow/sleet but then verifies as rain. Wait...I'm getting deja vu just typing that.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top