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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
His pattern recognition is good. He jumped on this one last weak and didn’t waiver when models began jumping around. He knows these setups tend to produce for us. Big high pressure x strung out wave pushed south = increased snow chances. He’s a smart guy
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Why wasn’t there much more snow in the upstate on that 18z nam run is it to warm
 
Clem282340 said:
Why wasn’t there much more snow in the upstate on that 18z nam run is it to warm
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85 is the dividing line when the cold isn’t entrenched before a storm. I wish I could provide you with reasoning but that’s just the way it is with sprawling high pressure west of the mountains
 
Rah NWS may end up being correct, they obviously know what they are talking about, most of the time, but the eps is an outlier? Did I miss something here, I guess compared to the GFS it's an outlier b/c unless I missed it the CMC and it's ens, the ICON (which I know they don't really use) and the NAM show same thing

Part of their AFD....
If there is an opportunity for phasing of sufficiently deep moisture/omega
and cold air, it would be north and east of the Triangle, which is where the
outlier EPS solutions lie..
 
My interest is slightly increasing to bring this thing back to CAE like many days ago, slow but steady. Bullseye far out bad, bullseye 24 hours good.
 
sleet for clt, would be typical. waste our qpf on sleet from a last minute warm nose.
 
Not in the sweet spot, but can I cash out now with my 6"?

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ATLwxfan said:
I personally think ATL still in play here. The NAM giving hope. The RGEM will save us.


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If it was 6-12hrs slower that would possibly make a world of difference. We need this to a Thu night/Fri morning deal. I think back to that Euro run a few days back that slammed the I-20 corridor in AL/GA with snow, but I don’t remember the timeframe. I just don’t see that happening though. At least the NAM gives us some token snow showers so there’s that I guess.
 
Welp there you have it, we just got NAMd by the Happy Hour NAM.Someone said they would happy just to have that. Are you satisfied now? ?
 
Shawn said:
My interest is slightly increasing to bring this thing back to CAE like many days ago, slow but steady. Bullseye far out bad, bullseye 24 hours good.
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Their is a possibly models will start to pull more colder air down for us. We need a 4-5 degree drop that’s not too much to ask for!
 
Shawn said:
My interest is slightly increasing to bring this thing back to CAE like many days ago, slow but steady. Bullseye far out bad, bullseye 24 hours good.
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like ive been saying I'll take a few flurries at this point
 
Spurs up said:
like ive been saying I'll take a few flurries at this point
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look @ that warning shot based off gfs dupage maps. haha. ill have to look at it deeper, but i'd assume heavier precipitation... but could be a ptype depiction defect.
 
SD said:
Didn't think I would be too far SE for this one after looking over the icon and nam I'm concerned
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Yeah, same. I think I should be okay up here, but who knows. Oh well, I’m willing to battle the warm nose to get the bigger totals, I think.
 
Shawn said:
look @ that warning shot based off gfs dupage maps. haha. ill have to look at it deeper, but i'd assume heavier precipitation... but could be a ptype depiction defect.
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Boundary Layer issues, but eh.. never know. The snow maps show at least a trace. Better than nothing.
 
Shawn said:
look @ that warning shot based off gfs dupage maps. haha. ill have to look at it deeper, but i'd assume heavier precipitation... but could be a ptype depiction defect.
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yea i saw that little blue dot lol
 
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