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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

The GFS from around day 10 on so far looks awful for anything wintry in the southeast. A 588DM ridge right over FLA.
 
GDrHHmgaoAAnIwR
 
weatherfide said:
I thought about driving to Nashville, but temps before and after the snow are way below freezing. I could get stranded there for a week. I can't afford that. I don't know how efficiently TN DOT clears the interstates. Probably really fast, but you never know.
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They do a good job but you don’t want to do Monteagle. I know from experience.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
So far for Jan, I've had noticeably cooler than average temps with almost every night down in the 20s. Plenty of QPF with 6.4 inches through 12 days... and not a single flake or ice pellet. I don't even know what to pull for anymore.
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LOL KIAD is 5 AN. 48/31
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
So far for Jan, I've had noticeably cooler than average temps with almost every night down in the 20s. Plenty of QPF with 6.4 inches through 12 days... and not a single flake or ice pellet. I don't even know what to pull for anymore.
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Man if someone would have shown me in advance what the temp and precip anomalies were going to be for the 1st 3 weeks of Jan I would have said there is no way we 0 out on wintry precip. Yet here we are. It really is just plain stupid at this point. Anything that can go wrong has for years now with the one exception of Jan 22. When we 0 out this month I think I'm out on believing any big snow is coming. At that point 1 or 2 inches should be all anyone hopes for in our area.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Man if someone would have shown me in advance what the temp and precip anomalies were going to be for the 1st 3 weeks of Jan I would have said there is no way we 0 out on wintry precip. Yet here we are. It really is just plain stupid at this point. Anything that can go wrong has for years now with the one exception of Jan 22. When we 0 out this month I think I'm out on believing any big snow is coming. At that point 1 or 2 inches should be all anyone hopes for in our area.
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I was just running the numbers with what I have so far, what is forecasted, and running out the last few days of the month at 56/40, which could be colder, and I ended up with 48/29 as averages. I could go back and look at just about any year with those numbers and would probably have at least 1 inch of snow recorded at some point during any of those months. Not this month though.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Man if someone would have shown me in advance what the temp and precip anomalies were going to be for the 1st 3 weeks of Jan I would have said there is no way we 0 out on wintry precip. Yet here we are. It really is just plain stupid at this point. Anything that can go wrong has for years now with the one exception of Jan 22. When we 0 out this month I think I'm out on believing any big snow is coming. At that point 1 or 2 inches should be all anyone hopes for in our area.
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There’s no way we have a successful February. I’ll never believe it.
 
Watching this guy Vince Waelti on youtube rn. He's in Dubuque...LOL.. Man that brings back memories stopping at the gas station on top of the ridge near my house with wind blowing 25mph snow on the ground and freezing my a$$ off! Good times!
 
J.C. said:
I was just running the numbers with what I have so far, what is forecasted, and running out the last few days of the month at 56/40, which could be colder, and I ended up with 48/29 as averages. I could go back and look at just about any year with those numbers and would probably have at least 1 inch of snow recorded at some point during any of those months. Not this month though.
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Yeah it's even harder to swallow coming right on the heels of last winter. I'm not sure there's ever been another winter in recorded history where every major station from Atlanta to Raleigh zeroed out like that. There have been warmer winters sure but that has to be the worst as far as snowfall goes. I keep saying surely there is no possible way that happens again, at least not this soon. And I still don't think it will. But I do think all those above normal snowfall forecasts are about to be in trouble.
 
Stevo24 said:
There’s no way we have a successful February. I’ll never believe it.
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Define successful? At this point I'll consider even seeing snow fall from the sky successful. But if you call successful getting average to above average snowfall I'd tend to agree with you. Feb has historically been a great month in these parts. But for some reason those big Feb snows seem to be a lot smaller when you haven't gotten anything up until that point.
 
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TarHeelSnow said:
In all seriousness, I hope Webb is ok after that wind storm in NM!
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Made it out ok and got really lucky it wasn't worse. Had gusts of 75-80 MPH here, only lost power briefly. Roof creaked a lot.

However, I ended up seeing some snow flurries at the end around 730-8pm last night, so that was a nice consolation prize.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Made it out ok and got really lucky it wasn't worse. Had gusts of 75-80 MPH here, only lost power briefly. Roof creaked a lot.

However, I ended up seeing some snow flurries at the end around 730-8pm last night, so that was a nice consolation prize.
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We're gonna know whether the Feb is fab or folly soon. Indices are kind of lining up. At least from what I see.
 
SimeonNC said:
If this storm doesn't trend better then I think I'm gonna call it for winter here. This is probably one the best patterns we'll have this season and if we can't get anything out of it then it's pretty much over. I'll still keep up with the forum, I'm just gonna go into spring/summer mode.
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Honestly I'm ready to hang it up here too. Just tired of the endless disappointment in a city that averages 9 inches a year and we are so far at .1 with this storm trending again into barely anything. Yeah well probably get something in February at some point but like it should have happened already if Sunday doesn't trend any better
 
My prediction for Feb is we start off semi warm but nothing crazy. We spend the first week maybe two talking about the “incoming” cold shot around valentines day or a little after. We play the same games like the last week of will this cut enough or will that area be cold enough. Will the moisture fill in etc. Finally the cold will arrive just like it will next week, mid south or NE will score and those of us from Georgia east will be licking our wounds till next December.
 
Stevo24 said:
My prediction for Feb is we start off semi warm but nothing crazy. We spend the first week maybe two talking about the “incoming” cold shot around valentines day or a little after. We play the same games like the last week of will this cut enough or will that area be cold enough. Will the moisture fill in etc. Finally the cold will arrive just like it will next week, mid south or NE will score and those of us from Georgia east will be licking our wounds till next December.
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That’s not how that works
 
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weatherfide said:
I thought about driving to Nashville, but temps before and after the snow are way below freezing. I could get stranded there for a week. I can't afford that. I don't know how efficiently TN DOT clears the interstates. Probably really fast, but you never know.
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We get snow just often enough to where they have enough equipment to clean the main roads pretty good. The day after you’d be absolutely fine driving on the highways.
 
olhausen said:
We get snow just often enough to where they have enough equipment to clean the main roads pretty good. The day after you’d be absolutely fine driving on the highways.
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Yeah even here it's the neighborhood streets that suck usually
 
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