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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

KyloG said:
It's a pretty good MJO pass... similar to 15, 10, 87, 78. I just think it's going to take longer than we hope...after the 15th before we see what we want on the models.

We suck...but we don't suck this bad to mess up a Feb nino in ph7-8.

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Never say we don't suck that bad that we can't screw it up because a lot of us just got shafted recently with a great setup. Always room for something to go wrong but we can hope it doesn't. At least we aren't doing a 180 right now going back to phase 6 and 5.
 
KyloG said:
It's a pretty good MJO pass... similar to 15, 10, 87, 78. I just think it's going to take longer than we hope...after the 15th before we see what we want on the models.

We suck...but we don't suck this bad to mess up a Feb nino in ph7-8.

View attachment 143405
Click to expand...

Yes, yes we do
 
KyloG said:
It's a pretty good MJO pass... similar to 15, 10, 87, 78. I just think it's going to take longer than we hope...after the 15th before we see what we want on the models.

We suck...but we don't suck this bad to mess up a Feb nino in ph7-8.

View attachment 143405
Click to expand...
This jet extension is a real wet blanket. I don't think many if any saw it coming to this magnitude before or in early winter. The real pain is we are still likely to see the cold and stormy come but we are pushing back the pay window. The long history of central nc says that winter is until mid to even late march but recent history isn't as kind.
 
SD said:
This jet extension is a real wet blanket. I don't think many if any saw it coming to this magnitude before or in early winter. The real pain is we are still likely to see the cold and stormy come but we are pushing back the pay window. The long history of central nc says that winter is until mid to even late march but recent history isn't as kind.
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I'm going to have to pull out my March 1-2, 1980 snow map again I see. There's always hope
 
SD said:
This jet extension is a real wet blanket. I don't think many if any saw it coming to this magnitude before or in early winter. The real pain is we are still likely to see the cold and stormy come but we are pushing back the pay window. The long history of central nc says that winter is until mid to even late march but recent history isn't as kind.
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I'm holding out the slimmest of hope for February based on the climatology, enso, expected forcing etc. However in my opinion March in this new climate is just too much to expect. My weenie season ends March 1 prior to our new normal, now I'm hoping against hope it doesn't end Feb 15.

My maple trees are already popping buds. ?
 
SD said:
This jet extension is a real wet blanket. I don't think many if any saw it coming to this magnitude before or in early winter. The real pain is we are still likely to see the cold and stormy come but we are pushing back the pay window. The long history of central nc says that winter is until mid to even late march but recent history isn't as kind.
Click to expand...

In the nino's we do score with in Feb it seems that hot window for us is after the 15th through early March. Couple that with ph7-8 and we good.

2015, 2010, 2004, 2003, 1987, 1980, 1978, 1973, 1969

february_28-march_2_1969_nc_snowmap.png
 
SnowNiner said:
I'm holding out the slimmest of hope for February based on the climatology, enso, expected forcing etc. However in my opinion March in this new climate is just too much to expect. My weenie season ends March 1 prior to our new normal, now I'm hoping against hope it doesn't end Feb 15.

My maple trees are already popping buds. ?
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Idk I had 3 accumulating snows in March of 2018 and that was after that Feb mega torched. I don't think we can rule March out but obviously snow on March 13th has some different issues vs snow on Jan 13
 
KyloG said:
In the nino's we do score with in Feb it seems that hot window for us is after the 15th through early March. Couple that with ph7-8 and we good.

2015, 2010, 2004, 2003, 1987, 1980, 1978, 1973, 1969

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Yeah this is kind of my hope. Going through all ninos and all history our best periods are right after Christmas, mid January then a longer window after valentines day through mid March.

This year kind of followed a similar playbook with the overall pattern
 
SD said:
Idk I had 3 accumulating snows in March of 2018 and that was after that Feb mega torched. I don't think we can rule March out but obviously snow on March 13th has some different issues vs snow on Jan 13
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Geez...winter of 2017/2018 was so awesome. Seems like that was a different ilfetime.
 
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KyloG said:
Geez...winter of 2017/2018 was so awesome. Seems like that was a different ilfetime.
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If that coastal in early January had been like 75-100 miles west we would have replaced 99-00 with 17-18 as the holy Grail of winter storms here.
 
SD said:
If that coastal in early January had been like 75-100 miles west we would have replaced 99-00 with 17-18 as the holy Grail of winter storms here
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You mean this one....as much as that sucked it was still a nice little storm. Everything stuck even to the roads.

Screen Shot 2024-01-26 at 10.21.15 AM.png
 
KyloG said:
Geez...winter of 2017/2018 was so awesome. Seems like that was a different ilfetime.
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Columbia was the only somewhat larger populated city in the Southeast that managed to not get accumulating Winter weather that Winter. The true Armpit of Hell.
 
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