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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

1300m said:
Mr Rogers Mask GIF by Halloween
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I like your new mask. looks good on you.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
General Hail Mary look was still there at 6z. We need some things to break our way but I think we’ll have a shot. If not we can track @BIG FROSTY storm for him View attachment 145341
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Yes I get plenty of snow up here. I still haven't posted pics from the last one you tracked for me... ?? I've had about 25 flakes in 2 years, so I pretty much live in a snow globe!
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
It’s so Confusing to come in here after a 12hr sleep …. “Winter is over” me “what the hell happened?” Checks thread ummm looks good then checks location of ppl upset and it’s like ohh 235 miles South of me nvm. This forum is so big (not griping) but it really does need to be changed where NC/VA/SC “upstate” on their own sections. Nothing against any of those guys but it’s just confusing. I look at a model on my own also and it makes me feel I’m seeing it wrong


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The delegates from central South Carolina are a snow deprived bitter bunch. They need to score like a 30 year old virgin.
 
Wilson said:
I wonder if he loses his job when a state of emergency is issued for his forecast market.

Guess we will see, because it's coming.
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I see mostly rain storms followed by cold shots, over and over on the GEFS, even in NC. I think Brad is right on this one. Again, it's going to be a huge bust for many on this board, if you've really bought in to the snow chances. I like the Nashville to Knoxville, NC mountains and down to Wilkesboro, NC for snow chances over the next 3 to 4 weeks. See EPS snow mean for the latest run. These means are worse than the January cold blast. GEFS latest is a little better, but the >1" is usually my threshold for starting to pay closer attention and it's just over the northern sections of NC.
 

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BIG FROSTY said:
Yes I get plenty of snow up here. I still haven't posted pics from the last one you tracked for me... ?? I've had about 25 flakes in 2 years, so I pretty much live in a snow globe!
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Standby good buddy. I’ve got one on the way for you in a couple weeks. Thanks for your patience!
 
weatherfide said:
I see mostly rain storms followed by cold shots, over and over on the GEFS, even in NC. I think Brad is right on this one. Again, it's going to be a huge bust for many on this board, if you've really bought in to the snow chances. I like the Nashville to Knoxville, NC mountains and down to Wilkesboro, NC for snow chances over the next 3 to 4 weeks. See EPS snow mean for the latest run. These means are worse than the January cold blast. GEFS latest is a little better, but the >1" is usually my threshold for starting to pay closer attention and it's just over the northern sections of NC.
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Not see anyone fully on board for snow really here but sounds like you are definitely calling it now as 'no-snow'
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I mean we’ve even got @Wilson onboard the snow wagon! He’s been balls deep in the machine learning models and I think he could be on to something. Now if only we could get @KyloG to drink the coolaid with us
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I am on board for 2 events to close the month...small event 18-22th and then a big dog 24-28th and maybe another small one first week of March. All of our bellyaching will amount to something...it's got to.
 
CaryWx said:
Not see anyone fully on board for snow really here but sounds like you are definitely calling it now as 'no-snow'
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I'm saying no snow for Brimingham to Atlanta to Columbia, slight chance for Chattanooga to Greenville to Raleigh, best chance for Nashville to Knoxville area to Wilkesboro and northeast of there. That's how it looks to me.
 
weatherfide said:
I see mostly rain storms followed by cold shots, over and over on the GEFS, even in NC. I think Brad is right on this one. Again, it's going to be a huge bust for many on this board, if you've really bought in to the snow chances. I like the Nashville to Knoxville, NC mountains and down to Wilkesboro, NC for snow chances over the next 3 to 4 weeks. See EPS snow mean for the latest run. These means are worse than the January cold blast. GEFS latest is a little better, but the >1" is usually my threshold for starting to pay closer attention and it's just over the northern sections of NC.
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You cant even post an image correctly but we are supposed to think your thoughts have merit
 
I said myself just few days ago and it's really common sense, that just because a pattern sets up below normal doesn't mean it will be cold enough to snow. I'm speaking of the upstate our Avg late Feb is upper 50s so yes a 10-15° drop is still mid to upper 40s. What are the Odds upstate SC sees winter weather in late Feb with highs in the 40s? It's slim to none. And the upcoming pattern doesn't look to be anymore significant than upper 40s at Best. So I will use common sense and say the chances of us seeing Snow is slim to none.

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Twister said:
I said myself just few days ago and it's really common sense, that just because a pattern sets up below normal doesn't mean it will be cold enough to snow. I'm speaking of the upstate our Avg late Feb is upper 50s so yes a 10-15° drop is still mid to upper 40s. What are the Odds upstate SC sees winter weather in late Feb with highs in the 40s? It's slim to none. And the upcoming pattern doesn't look to be anymore significant than upper 40s at Best. So I will use common sense and say the chances of us seeing Snow is slim to none.

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It was 43 degrees on the day before the 1/23/03 snowstorm. Seven hours after that high snow began and the rest is history. It's a poor take.
 
SD said:
Is this the ah ha moment for everyone?
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Yeah...for sure. Try and post less....and when we do post only post optimistic things about the upcoming pattern, any objective post will get mocked, clowned, LOL'd...and that will stir up a hornets nest. ----- got shredded on here last night for saying we will need greater temp departures end of Feb than in mid-January.

I think not having a legit a winter storm thread in 2 years hasn't helped and has everyone on edge and until that changes this is what we got.
 
KyloG said:
Yeah...for sure. Try and post less....and when we do post only post optimistic things about the upcoming pattern, any objective post will get mocked, clowned, LOL'd...and that will stir up a hornets nest. ----- got shredded on here last night for saying we will need greater temp departures end of Feb than in mid-January.

I think not having a legit a winter storm thread in 2 years hasn't helped and has everyone on edge and until that changes this is what we got.
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I thought his comment was cringe tbh but I will leave it alone.

That said it's weird the generally negative posters really bring nothing to the table besides their feels, the generally overly optimistic posters can turn a SER into a raging CAD storm. There's a real lack of digging into what's happening to get a fruitful discussion other than model outcome maps.

I think this thread has become a collector of ---- posts and really the source of toxicity and negativity. I'd love to kill it but the ---- posts would then just go into the main thread
 
KyloG said:
Yeah...for sure. Try and post less....and when we do post only post optimistic things about the upcoming pattern, any objective post will get mocked, clowned, LOL'd...and that will stir up a hornets nest. ----- got shredded on here last night for saying we will need greater temp departures end of Feb than in mid-January.

I think not having a legit a winter storm thread in 2 years hasn't helped and has everyone on edge and until that changes this is what we got.
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No. he's getting roasted for saying this: "There is no arctic air on the way and no winter set up. The cool anamolies are caused by rain and clouds, not cold air."

And when asked about cold air coming jan 15-20th, "no signs of that at all, all the cold air is on the other side of the hemisphere in the long range".
 
SD said:
I thought his comment was cringe tbh but I will leave it alone.

That said it's weird the generally negative posters really bring nothing to the table besides their feels, the generally overly optimistic posters can turn a SER into a raging CAD storm. There's a real lack of digging into what's happening to get a fruitful discussion other than model outcome maps.

I think this thread has become a collector of ---- posts and really the source of toxicity and negativity. I'd love to kill it but the ---- posts would then just go into the main thread
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Why was it cringe? Mid January I posted the MJO plot showing a healthy trip to 4-5-6 and that would probably kick the can to mid-Feb. I got trolled for that a couple of times. That bothered me and that set off some fireworks the past couple of weeks. The best thing I could have done is not post anything about a potential sucky winter pattern, nobody wants to hear that or have a discussion on that.
 
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