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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

Rain Cold said:
I don't want to get caught up in the "well this model does this too fast or that model doesn't handle that thing well and so on" because that stuff gets thrown out like candy. But like I mentioned yesterday, it is true that when you have a big block, there is often a propensity for it to hang around a bit longer than models think it should. That can have downstream effects (out in time) in that it can make things appear to shift south as you close in on the event. We don't see this very much, as most of our events trend north over time. But we don't usually have big blocks up there either.

Now, I don't want to suggest that there's going to be some magical massive shift that magically makes a snowstorm occur, but if things are marginal and you only need a few slight tweaks to make it a solid wintry event, then that is probably within the realm of possibility when you have a block like this.
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Trying to make a weenie post not sound weenie. I'll allow it. Lol.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Yes that's correct, it's all winters. I'll list them all below and I'll try to look it up the Enso when I get off. The 50s may be as far back as Enso goes though I'm not sure. All winters listed are a T or less through Feb 1st and the final winter totals, not just Feb totals. I know 08-09 on the list the snow came in March.
1893-94 7.0"
1894-95 14.5"
1898-99 4.3"
1899-00 2.0"
1900-01 3.0"
1902-03 T
1908-09 T
1910-11 0.5"
1918-19 0.2"
1923-24 1"
1926-27 9.7"
1927-28 T
1928-29 5.6"
1931-32 T
1933-34 0.3"
1956-57 T
1973-74 0.4"
1974-75 1.3"
1975-76 T
1977-78 3.9"
1983-84 0.6"
1985-86 1.4"
1988-89 2.5"
1991-92 T
1992-93 10.2"
2005-06 T
2006-07 1.5"
2008-09 4.4"
2011-12 0
2012-13 2.0"
2014-15 3.7"
2021-21 1.8"
2022-23 0

So just glancing I think 14-15 was El Nino and maybe 2005-06. Also maybe 1 of those in the mid 70s.
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@CaryWx I did some digging back to the early 50s. Now this is for GSP, your area may be drastically different. I know it is in Feb 2015 by previously shared maps. But here it is. There have only been 4 El Nino winters out of 27 that didn't produce more than a T through Feb 1st.

1977-78 weak Nino and finished with 3.9"
1991-92 strong Nino and finished with a T
2006-07 weak Nino and finished with 1.5"
2014-15 weak Nino and finished with 3.7"

It's very uncommon for a Nino to be snowless through Feb 1st. Of the 4 that were since 1950 3 of the 4 went on to produce measurable snow. And 2 of those got fairly close to the 30 year average. The only one that didn't and failed was 91-92. A strong Nino, just like this year. So idk. I'd say it's almost impossible to go snowless, especially for the 2nd year in a row, never happened before. But if we indeed do get to Feb 1st snowless I guess we only have 1 year to really compare it to and it did go snowless.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
@CaryWx I did some digging back to the early 50s. Now this is for GSP, your area may be drastically different. I know it is in Feb 2015 by previously shared maps. But here it is. There have only been 4 El Nino winters out of 27 that didn't produce more than a T through Feb 1st.

1977-78 weak Nino and finished with 3.9"
1991-92 strong Nino and finished with a T
2006-07 weak Nino and finished with 1.5"
2014-15 weak Nino and finished with 3.7"

It's very uncommon for a Nino to be snowless through Feb 1st. Of the 4 that were since 1950 3 of the 4 went on to produce measurable snow. And 2 of those got fairly close to the 30 year average. The only one that didn't and failed was 91-92. A strong Nino, just like this year. So idk. I'd say it's almost impossible to go snowless, especially for the 2nd year in a row, never happened before. But if we indeed do get to Feb 1st snowless I guess we only have 1 year to really compare it to and it did go snowless.
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To add to that here is Jan and Feb 1992. So far this Jan is colder and appears it will be significantly colder around and just after mid month this year. That Jan did seem to warm the 3rd week and never looked back though except a few cold days here and there.
Screenshot_20240110_155557_Chrome.jpgScreenshot_20240110_155623_Chrome.jpg
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
@CaryWx I did some digging back to the early 50s. Now this is for GSP, your area may be drastically different. I know it is in Feb 2015 by previously shared maps. But here it is. There have only been 4 El Nino winters out of 27 that didn't produce more than a T through Feb 1st.

1977-78 weak Nino and finished with 3.9"
1991-92 strong Nino and finished with a T
2006-07 weak Nino and finished with 1.5"
2014-15 weak Nino and finished with 3.7"

It's very uncommon for a Nino to be snowless through Feb 1st. Of the 4 that were since 1950 3 of the 4 went on to produce measurable snow. And 2 of those got fairly close to the 30 year average. The only one that didn't and failed was 91-92. A strong Nino, just like this year. So idk. I'd say it's almost impossible to go snowless, especially for the 2nd year in a row, never happened before. But if we indeed do get to Feb 1st snowless I guess we only have 1 year to really compare it to and it did go snowless.
Click to expand...
That 91-92 El Niño is actually classified as moderate on NOAA’s website and it really sucked for most of the Carolinas. The I-20 corridor got a nice southern slider in mid January that I think gave Atlanta 5-6”, but produce nothing in NC except the very far southeast part of the state. Of the 4 El Niños that NOAA classifies as moderate since 1950, it’s the only one that was above average east of the Rockies
 
Chazwin said:
That 91-92 El Niño is actually classified as moderate on NOAA’s website and it really sucked for most of the Carolinas. The I-20 corridor got a nice southern slider in mid January that I think gave Atlanta 5-6”, but produce nothing in NC except the very far southeast part of the state. Of the 4 El Niños that NOAA classifies as moderate since 1950, it’s the only one that was above average east of the Rockies
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You're probably correct. I used this. Maybe they calculate the whole year. You get different results depending on where you look
Screenshot_20240110_160726_Chrome.jpg
 
I mean. What's the point of being excited for snow in a place that gets snow every year.

Like, you still have to work etc. It's not exciting at all vs snow in the Southeast.

My favorite part about the snow here is all the traffic goes away and it's quiet, which doesn't happen further North.
 
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