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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

Icon is the worst model in the history of models! Think the DGEX even has higher verification! ?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I trust your extrapolations. How many inches in upstate SC? Western shield underdone?
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Yes...
In that setup places East of 77 are in Heaven.
Places East of 26 are in glory.
Places NW of 85 West of 26 get shafted again.
Of course it's just run 1 of 1 model but,
It's exactly what happened during the Carolina Crusher.
It definitely crushed my soul....
 
Stevo24 said:
I see I didn’t miss anything going to bed early last night. I should do it more often.
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Last night was pretty good. Even Canadian was a beast and like a half a degree at surface from crushing several folks. Its waking up to the 6z GFS suite that's serving sour pickle juice for coffee
 
Stevo24 said:
I guess we really are throwing all our chips on the table for mid feb.
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Then you will be throwing them all on table for end of Feb. Then The Flowers and Trees will be blooming and everyone will be wondering what happened this winter. People needs to realize that things are Changing and Winters around here are not like they use to be. After all this is the South and Winters storms are hard to come by Anyways. Everything has to be absolutely perfect and that these days are hard pressed!

Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk
 
Twister said:
Then you will be throwing them all on table for end of Feb. Then The Flowers and Trees will be blooming and everyone will be wondering what happened this winter. People needs to realize that things are Changing and Winters around here are not like they use to be. After all this is the South and Winters storms are hard to come by Anyways. Everything has to be absolutely perfect and that these days are hard pressed!

Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk
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That's the real fear is that this is the new normal. It'll snow here again for sure. And probably be some good snows. But those years of a decent storm plus a couple smaller events, plus several near misses made for good times. It's been very boring for years now outside Jan 22 and who knows if those times will return anytime soon.
 
Twister said:
Then you will be throwing them all on table for end of Feb. Then The Flowers and Trees will be blooming and everyone will be wondering what happened this winter. People needs to realize that things are Changing and Winters around here are not like they use to be. After all this is the South and Winters storms are hard to come by Anyways. Everything has to be absolutely perfect and that these days are hard pressed!

Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk
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RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
That's the real fear is that this is the new normal. It'll snow here again for sure. And probably be some good snows. But those years of a decent storm plus a couple smaller events, plus several near misses made for good times. It's been very boring for years now outside Jan 22 and who knows if those times will return anytime soon.
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bDXTnKP.gif
 
Just one OP run but GFS shows no widespread freeze outside of elevation through mid Feb. If that verified it would take a pretty historical turn the second half to bring anything outside the mountains; thats pretty late to be reshuffling the pattern. Of course it could look totally different next run but our can kicking can only go on so long. Tough stretch we're on.
 
When is the last time Raleigh had 6 inches of snow in total for winter, and the last time they had more than 6 inches from a single storm?
 
Could be worse. IIRC this time in 2009 we were mourning the death of Groundhogzilla. For several days all the globals were converging on a massive winter storm, and it hadn't been since 1993 that the globals were in such good agreement 4-7 days out. As the 12z runs came out, it was utter disbelief as the GFS went poof. That was intitially dismissed as a fluke run, like whatever goofy. Then the 12z Canadian went poof. Uh-oh, what's going on here. Then the UK went poof. Oh no. Finally our worst fears were realized when the 12z Euro went poof. Any hope that it was simply a data ingest issue died with the following 0z runs. Our big daddy beast of a modeled winter storm had died a sudden tragic death. Those were some rough times.
 
cyclogent said:
Could be worse. IIRC this time in 2009 we were mourning the death of Groundhogzilla. For several days all the globals were converging on a massive winter storm, and it hadn't been since 1993 that the globals were in such good agreement 4-7 days out. As the 12z runs came out, it was utter disbelief as the GFS went poof. That was intitially dismissed as a fluke run, like whatever goofy. Then the 12z Canadian went poof. Uh-oh, what's going on here. Then the UK went poof. Oh no. Finally our worst fears were realized when the 12z Euro went poof. Any hope that it was simply a data ingest issue died with the following 0z runs. Our big daddy beast of a modeled winter storm had died a sudden tragic death. Those were some rough times.
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The way you described that got me all choked up
 
Imma CFS guy myself, fgreat mogel ...
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cyclogent said:
Could be worse. IIRC this time in 2009 we were mourning the death of Groundhogzilla. For several days all the globals were converging on a massive winter storm, and it hadn't been since 1993 that the globals were in such good agreement 4-7 days out. As the 12z runs came out, it was utter disbelief as the GFS went poof. That was intitially dismissed as a fluke run, like whatever goofy. Then the 12z Canadian went poof. Uh-oh, what's going on here. Then the UK went poof. Oh no. Finally our worst fears were realized when the 12z Euro went poof. Any hope that it was simply a data ingest issue died with the following 0z runs. Our big daddy beast of a modeled winter storm had died a sudden tragic death. Those were some rough times.
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RIP
 
SD said:
It's a shame to be so close yet so far away. Another one slipping through our fingers our winters have turned into the early 90s buffalo bills and global warming is the cowboys
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What happened? You were so optimistic a few days ago on the winter? I lost my optimism 2 weeks ago ?‍♂️
 
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