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Wintry Winter Storm January 6th-10th #2

I am surprised it's still snowin in Lavonia Ga. My chickens think it's interesting. Since I have been following this system with ya'll since I think before Christmas??... Atleast some closure. Yikes!
 
The goods are almost here

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Over 35K GA Power customers were out of power at the highest point from the ice storm of last night from about 0.50" of ZR, which equates to ~0.25" of ice accrual. So, it was just enough ZR to cause more than isolated outage problems. However, I say it was not quite bad enough to be put in the major or severe ZR category (I generally like to see ~0.75" of ZR for that) for the history books but a moderate/significant ZR it sure was.

Interestingly, neutral negative ENSO (like we have) is easily the ENSO with the largest number of major ZR's in ATL (though this wasn't quite major in my eyes). Also, since 1940, every single major ZR or major IP in ATL (~17 of them) had E winds/CAD. This had typically drier NW winds and no CAD, which may have prevented there being enough ZR to reach major status. By the way, the GFS kept insisting on 1"+ qpf in the ATL area, especially city south. Yesterday's 12Z run gave Katl 1.25" of QPF!

With it being NN ENSO, I wouldn't yet give up on a major ZR later this winter. Prime NN ZR climo doesn't end til mid-Feb.
 
Well IMO this system was similar in setup , but without the dynamics, of the Blizzard of 1993 system... AND similar to it, it underperformed models generally south and SE of I-20 to I-85 corridors through metro ATL.. It s almost like the cold flow has problems "getting over the mointains" to get into eastern ALA, and Metro Atl.. (yes I know that is over simplification... ) but there has to be a reason for it, just as there has to be a reason why no EF_5's have been recorded east/SE of I 59 corridor..
 
gawxnative said:
Well IMO this system was similar in setup , but without the dynamics, of the Blizzard of 1993 system... AND similar to it, it underperformed models generally south and SE of I-20 to I-85 corridors through metro ATL.. It s almost like the cold flow has problems "getting over the mointains" to get into eastern ALA, and Metro Atl.. (yes I know that is over simplification... ) but there has to be a reason for it, just as there has to be a reason why no EF_5's have been recorded east/SE of I 59 corridor..
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Would a lack of snowpack to our north have anything to do with that?


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Cute token flakes here. Ugh.
 
whatalife said:
gawxnative said:
Well  IMO this system was similar in setup , but without the dynamics, of the Blizzard of 1993 system... AND similar to it, it underperformed models generally south and SE of I-20 to I-85 corridors through metro ATL.. It s almost like the cold flow has problems "getting over the mointains"  to get into eastern ALA, and Metro Atl.. (yes I know that is over simplification... ) but there has to be a reason for it, just as there has to be a reason why no EF_5's have been recorded east/SE of I 59 corridor..
Click to expand...


Would a lack of snowpack to our north have anything to do with that?


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Click to expand...

I would guess that could also be something to note. Since there is no snow to the NW of where this system came in, like in Missouri and the plains, the cold air push warmed ever so slightly enough to prevent accumulations south of what was forecasted.
 
Well, that sucked....lol Its cold for sure, now....hahaha What an awful under-performing system for many...Congrats on those who got some wintry weather for sure, but this one will be a very good learning experience. In the end, the weather will do what the weather is going to do, that still will never change. NAM did a very good job with showing what prob would be the final outcome. When it came a little north with the SFC low and delayed the change over for many, I thought it was out to lunch, because it was not consistent with other models, but guess what......it did the best job once we got in within 48 hours.....IMHO.....*with regards to thermals and low track* we ended up with 1.15" of rain which was under performing as well. Hey, at least the drought should be gone, right? lol
 
gawxnative said:
Well  IMO this system was similar in setup , but without the dynamics, of the Blizzard of 1993 system... AND similar to it, it underperformed models generally south and SE of I-20 to I-85 corridors through metro ATL.. It s almost like the cold flow has problems "getting over the mointains"  to get into eastern ALA, and Metro Atl.. (yes I know that is over simplification... ) but there has to be a reason for it, just as there has to be a reason why no EF_5's have been recorded east/SE of I 59 corridor..
Click to expand...

Since there wasn't cold air in place beforehand, East GA is where a warm nose likes to set up because of the Savannah River Valley.

It was actually timing though that messed this one up, the GFS busted pretty hard with the timing of the system, it had .43 of QPF here at 9 AM....yeah maybe .43 of air (maybe a passing flurry but I don't know as I was sleeping). 

I knew there was trouble with this system potentially being a colossal bust when it started to rain off and on much earlier than was predicted yesterday. The NAM ended up nailing timing (but was wrong on a major backside band that would've saved people).

This ended earlier than even I was figuring, I woke up for some reason at 7:40ish, decided to check radar....and saw that everything was pretty much gone by then!
 
Here in East TN the NAM and esp. the HRRR performed really well. Ended up with 4", but initially there had to be a problem with dry air aloft...had alot of Virga to start off.

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I think another reason why we didn't see much snow is because the low was a surface low. We need a ULL that can produce it's own cold air while having reinforcing cold air at the surface. I noticed that when the precipitation was gone, that's when the temperatures really started to fall. I had a low of 23 degrees this AM. During most of the event, I was just sitting above freezing.

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I also was thinking about this as well....When the models showed the energy trying to get back with the NB later in the game, that really didn't do us any favors. The NB really didn't get a good push through before which would have pushed the cold air more as well.
 
I may need to be more careful about what I wish for, I was complaining about the possibility of ice and said I didn't want to see any. Well I got my wish once the high pressure that would've caused CAD disappeared from being a possibility, but then this trended north and my jinx hurt a lot of Georgia people.
 
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