• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

The system is there, it's just elongated. But as soon as the system makes it just east of Florida (or sooner) the system will start having better circulation (start have the coma look to the system.) Bombogenesis.

Sent from my SM-J327T1 using Tapatalk
 
WeatherWatch said:
The system is there, it's just elongated. But as soon as the system makes it just east of Florida (or sooner) the system will start having better circulation (start have the coma look to the system.) Bombogenesis.

Sent from my SM-J327T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
No this is not bombogenesis, the low pressure only deepens about 10 mb in 24 hours. To be a storm that undergoes bombogenesis it has to deepen at least 24 hPa in 24 hours
 
Webberweather53 said:
No this is not bombogenesis, the low pressure only deepens about 10 mb in 24 hours. To be a storm that undergoes bombogenesis it has to deepen at least 24 hPa in 24 hours
Click to expand...
It isn't likely there will be bombogenesis with this system, but it could be possible. As of right now, the NAO doesn't appear that it's going to be significantly negative at the time. I'm sure as you know, there will be blocking north of the system, which would help amplification of the system. The system could get on that boarder line of bombogenesis.

Sent from my SM-J327T1 using Tapatalk
 
WeatherWatch said:
It isn't likely there will be bombogenesis with this system, but it could be possible. As of right now, the NAO doesn't appear that it's going to be significantly negative at the time. I'm sure as you know, there will be blocking north of the system, which would help amplification of the system. The system could get on that boarder line of bombogenesis.

Sent from my SM-J327T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
It's possible but not likely enough to where I'd mention it
 
12z GEFS mean MSLP member spread. The output is suggesting that the LP will develop off of the SE coast.The question still remains of how close will the LP get to the coast, and if the LP will develop at a sooner time. There is still time for a NW/W trend. Margin of error within each run.
7164d8bc73f66372bc5e621140fe7c57.gif


Sent from my SM-J327T1 using Tapatalk
 
I think still a shot at this, but a little less optimistic from today's runs. Still time for sure.
 
Clipper is what will give some hope, this weekend
 
Webberweather53 said:
Models notoriously underestimate the extent and intensity of the precipitation shield on the NW side of Miller A cyclones (esp the GFS), I wouldn't be shocked if we somehow kept the same general look (huge caveat*) that we end up wetter...
Click to expand...
I would agree with that fully
 
There are a lot of mid-Atlantic, Apps, and NE US hits w/ this storm on the latest EPS suite... We've seen this movie before. One can hope a big storm like this (literally) lays the groundwork for something in the following week
eps_snow_50_se_27.png
eps_snow_25_se_27.png
 
Earlier it was said that heavier rates could overcome the BL warmth levels and just a few moments ago it was said that models underestimate the precip with these systems. How realistic would it be at this point for the precip to be heavy enough to overcome the warmth and change it from a cold rain to heavy snow?
 
Huge shift NW in the ensemble this run. Consensus is now going towards the mid-Atlantic, northeast US, and New England and potentially the lower lakes too
eps_snow_m_east_27.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Huge shift NW in the ensemble this run. Consensus is now going towards the mid-Atlantic, northeast US, and New England and potentially the lower lakes too
View attachment 1736
Click to expand...
Cool! Maybe that can put down a big snowpack up there and will help with a cad , before all the cold leaves
 
Tarheel1 said:
Cool! Maybe that can put down a big snowpack up there and will help with a cad , before all the cold leaves
Click to expand...

That's what I've been thinking and hoping we'd see during the first week of this pattern change. As I mentioned last week, we usually don't score right away even in a good pattern and may have to sacrifice a few storms at the onset, but if something comes along after this we could be in serious business
 
Good lord there's a negatively tilted trough in the means... Yeah this look verbatim has the Mid-Atlantic, Apps, and New England written all over it.
eps_z500a_noram_156.png
 
Looking like this initial cold blast isn't going to be that remarkable as was being shown on models a few days ago. I've got two days in the next 10, at MAYBE 10 degree below normal highs.
 
Sadly, I expected the Mid-ATL - NE situation that modeling may be alluding here on this first push. Still not a loss guys, it can only help us for the next chance.
 
Yes, what I think we're going to see is the snowfall accumulations will be parallel/ along the Appalachian MNTS. Because the LP would start having better circulation versus a flat wave as it makes it's way northeastward.

Sent from my SM-J327T1 using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top