• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

gfs_asnow_us_30.png
 
Still great pattern guys, and theres still good potential on the table.
 
Storm5 said:
If i were in the Carolinas I'd be getting pretty intrigued. As ARCC mentioned just sharpen up the trough and its game on for the Carolinas
Click to expand...
How likely is it for the trough to sharpen up? Not that familiar with common model biases at this range.
 
Really hoping you Carolina folks get your early season snow! Ready to start seeing some happy folks around here! :D
 
The time of day this storm passes over the Carolinas on the 18z GFS is as least conducive as possible for scoring, need this to come during the overnight to optimize the chances for wintry weather. GFS has surface temps in the low-mid 40s @144 hours, a sharper trough axis and stronger low could certainly generate more dynamic cooling and melting in the low-mid levels to drive temps back several degrees, but we need to hit the diurnal cycle much better than what's depicted in this run... The heaviest precipitation comes during the middle of the afternoon, that probably won't get it done here
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_24.png
 
Euro on the other hand has the heaviest precipitation over NC coming in during Friday morning (but still heavy into the afternoon) and of course a stronger low and heavier precipitation that generates more lift and low-mid level melting that changes some of the precipitation over to heavy wet snow in east-central NC. Little details such as when the heaviest precipitation occurs wrt the diurnal cycle matter because it could end up being the difference between moderate-heavy cold rain w/ temps in the mid-upper 30s, or low-mid 30s w/ heavy, wet snow...

ecmwf_slp_precip_nc_25.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Euro on the other hand has the heaviest precipitation over NC coming in during Friday morning (but still heavy into the afternoon) and of course a stronger low and heavier precipitation that generates more lift and low-mid level melting that changes some of the precipitation over to heavy wet snow in east-central NC. Little details such as when the heaviest precipitation occurs wrt the diurnal cycle matter because it could end up being the difference between moderate-heavy cold rain w/ temps in the mid-upper 30s, or low-mid 30s w/ heavy, wet snow...

View attachment 1707
Click to expand...
I apologize for the weenie question but does this have any chance of going a bit NW?
 
Only 1 GEFS member show a solution similar to the Euro.
 
cg2916 said:
Only 1 GEFS member show a solution similar to the Euro.
Click to expand...

About half of the Euro ensemble suite backs up the op so it's legit to a degree. The GEFS is notoriously underdispersive and clearly an inferior ensemble esp w/ coastal cyclogenesis thus the solutions are not only more erroneous, but more times than not they're way too similar to the operational model
 
cg2916 said:
Only 1 GEFS member show a solution similar to the Euro.
Click to expand...

Several GEFS members (Ec and members 2, 5, 6, 7, 17, & 20) actually have a similar solution, they just show the frontal wave moving further NW w/ snow closer to the W piedmont and mountains of NC, none literally take the Euro track but it's in between the various extremes in the GEFS
gefs_ptype_ens_se_24.png
 
Yeap euro is definitely still king. It nailed the last major event a couple of years ago almost a week out. The gfs was throwing out clown maps and the euro held fast with us wake county folks getting screwed by the warm nose.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top