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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

I feel like soon a model or two (or more) start showing a few really fun runs. Not sure if they'll stick but surly there'll be some nw runs
 
The system is there way before the Carolina's actually. The low pressure system is "stretched" out, but it's there, embedded in the western GOM. The models are having a hard time with the system because the polar low displacement. Initially, the system will be suppressed into the southeastern GOM (north of western Cuba) and then get kicked out from there and track right along the eastern seaboard. The system could turn out to be a text book Miller A system.
 
Don't know about if it will be cold enough, but looking like it will be a little NW of 18z,....
 
0 540s @ CAE, need the moisture! Blue on the western fringe.... Come on, work it
 
Temperatures are just a little too warm over eastern NC this run in the upper 30s, need more heavy precipitation thrown back into NC to get enough melting to push the freezing level close to the ground to switch to snow or a rain/snow mix
 
Cold makes better inroads, precip not any more west it seems! :(
On to the 12thish timeframe
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png
 
Only on hr 144, but that clipper sure is traveling pretty far south on the 00z GFS vs. 18z

EDIT: Beaten to the punch I see.
 
Need to watch for a phase between the long wave at the baroclinic zone and that clipper. The timing is very, very crucial. The chance of phasing is small, but the chance is there.
 
WeatherWatch said:
Yeah, if any area's start off as rain/IP, it will quickly change over to snow.
Click to expand...

Hypothetically speaking if this ended up dropping wintry precip, definitely would be a classic case of rates driving precipitation type, certainly something we're more accustomed to especially in late winter/early spring... There's not much room for error however because once the freezing level is just close enough to the surface to changeover to snow, it will be falling so heavily that accumulation will commence in short order regardless of ground temps, etc. You can go from cold rain to several inches of snow in a heartbeat and only a very minute change in the temperature profile w/ setups like this... Certainly worth watching
 
Strange happenings when Macon is the same temp as Detroit!
 
The new run is even more suppressed, but the good news is that the energy across the central us does move faster, allowing the low to initiate faster. The faster the initiation of the low, the further nw it'll go. Seems to be the trend.

In terms of the clipper: let's be honest, nobody is gonna get anything special from a clipper.
 
bouncycorn said:
The new run is even more suppressed, but the good news is that the energy across the central us does move faster, allowing the low to initiate faster. The faster the initiation of the low, the further nw it'll go. Seems to be the trend.

In terms of the clipper: let's be honest, nobody is gonna get anything special from a clipper.
Click to expand...

Clippers rarely work out but tell that to March 1927 which came from the WNW-NW
 
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