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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

Parker said:
I am officially up for the party. The latest nam absolutely RAILS central Alabama. Clown maps have 6-9 inches, which is ridiculous, but Mets are really beginning to ramp up there wording. Should have Winter Storm Warnings issued soon for BHAM area. JP Dice has 2+ in a large area, but is afraid it could be more. Has 3+ in areas too. This is what we all hope and dream for. Good luck everyone and lets have fun. I am about to get the coffee brewing!
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This is one to save. Wow. Claycounty Chaser and Xtreme are gonna mess their pants.

namconus_asnow_seus_13.png
 
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Arcc said:
This is one to save. Wow.

namconus_asnow_seus_9.png
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ARCC, I think you will get hammered. I can't wait to hear your reports. I feel like I am razor close to the line where it comes to heavy snowfall, but it will be close. I just feel like this is going to be a long duration event, and will likely over perform. The radar looks absolutely LOADED. That moisture is still feeding all the way back into Texas. My weenie level is through the roof for this one. The GFS looks very similar to the image posted above from the NAM as well.
 
35.5 now...starting to see some rain/snow mixture happening. Wont be much longer for sure.
 
gawxnative said:
From a friend ref FFC Chat, they are "concerned" that the wave is closing off, which would result in system slowing down and resulting in longer duration and also suppesing the warm nose... Considering running advisories/warning "one or two rows" of counties South
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South and East or just south? As in more towards Athens?
 
gawxnative said:
From a friend ref FFC Chat, they are "concerned" that the wave is closing off, which would result in system slowing down and resulting in longer duration and also suppesing the warm nose... Considering running advisories/warning "one or two rows" of counties South
Click to expand...
This just keeps getting better and better. I hope this doesn't turn into a disaster for some areas...hopefully most schools in the warning areas will close. This is really a fluid situation.
 
Parker said:
ARCC, I think you will get hammered. I can't wait to hear your reports. I feel like I am razor close to the line where it comes to heavy snowfall, but it will be close. I just feel like this is going to be a long duration event, and will likely over perform. The radar looks absolutely LOADED. That moisture is still feeding all the way back into Texas. My weenie level is through the roof for this one. The GFS looks very similar to the image posted above from the NAM as well.
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Here is to everyone getting a good snow. I'm not confident yet until it starts pouring, but this one easily has the best shot at a larger amount snow than I've seen in years. Except for '93 ive never seen more than four inches. I think we received around four in 2000 and also around four in the Snowjam in '14. It would be nice to break that, but it would also be nice to see two inches so I'm not picky.
 
gawxnative said:
From a friend ref FFC Chat, they are "concerned" that the wave is closing off, which would result in system slowing down and resulting in longer duration and also suppesing the warm nose... Considering running advisories/warning "one or two rows" of counties South
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That's a best case scenario here, warm nose getting surpressed
 
MBell said:
This just keeps getting better and better. I hope this doesn't turn into a disaster for some areas...hopefully most schools in the warning areas will close. This is really a fluid situation.
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What will "save us" from disaster (Snow Jam 14" is the surface/road temps so it is a typical snow event for here.. In short we will have a good amount of "slush time" for the roads..
 
Man
gawxnative said:
From a friend ref FFC Chat, they are "concerned" that the wave is closing off, which would result in system slowing down and resulting in longer duration and also suppesing the warm nose... Considering running advisories/warning "one or two rows" of counties South
Click to expand...


Wow...great! Are the models showing it is closing off.
 
Its been some time since we had an analog like this event. Could
be similar to, albeit a little weaker system this time around,
the March 1 2009 event when an upper low produced heavy snow with
temps in mid to upper 30s. The snow was so heavy that temps fell
to 32 to 33 and roads quickly become snow covered.

Fortunately, timing of cooler temperatures tonight is not matching
heaviest precip which should mainly occur today. Will need to keep
an eye on this as high resolution model guidance still hanging on
to decent amounts of precip tonight. Will ultimately depend on
if short wave closes off into upper low. So far model handling of
this has only shown subtle increase. If low were to cutoff
completely and slow down, amounts would be significantly higher.

They reference in the AFD (FFC)
 
gawxnative said:
Its been some time since we had an analog like this event. Could
be similar to, albeit a little weaker system this time around,
the March 1 2009 event when an upper low produced heavy snow with
temps in mid to upper 30s. The snow was so heavy that temps fell
to 32 to 33 and roads quickly become snow covered.

Fortunately, timing of cooler temperatures tonight is not matching
heaviest precip which should mainly occur today. Will need to keep
an eye on this as high resolution model guidance still hanging on
to decent amounts of precip tonight. Will ultimately depend on
if short wave closes off into upper low. So far model handling of
this has only shown subtle increase. If low were to cutoff
completely and slow down, amounts would be significantly higher.

They reference in the AFD (FFC)
Click to expand...

I recalled a few frames of the models this week showing a closed 540 contour...maybe it wasn’t a fluke after all
 
Temp down to 34 degrees, two more to go. Mesoanalysis has 925mb below zero, probably just a little bit before change over.
 
A question folks... Looking at GR 3 in CC the bright band running from near Carrollton to Marietta to Gainesville.. is that indicative of the "freeze line"? If so it has been "on the march" Southeastward
 
Everyone's excited, but is anyone satisfied yet? (except you Aggie fans, we know already you got the love).
 
gawxnative said:
A question folks... Looking at GR 3 in CC the bright band running from near Carrollton to Marietta to Gainesville.. is that indicative of the "freeze line"? If so it has been "on the march" Southeastward
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I believe it is. That's always been my understanding of it.
 
gawxnative said:
A question folks... Looking at GR 3 in CC the bright band running from near Carrollton to Marietta to Gainesville.. is that indicative of the "freeze line"? If so it has been "on the march" Southeastward
Click to expand...
GR 3 in CC?

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 
MBell said:
This just keeps getting better and better. I hope this doesn't turn into a disaster for some areas...hopefully most schools in the warning areas will close. This is really a fluid situation.
Click to expand...
Yeah.... hope they do it soon! I smell early release day a mile away if we go...and that is no fun.. been there done that....bout 3-4 years ago..
 
dat northern energy phasing? looks unlikely... but holy crap if it did.. feet in the Western NC mountains.
 
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