Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

[accu35]

I worked all night, but i got to stay up to see the gfs/cmc 12z. Maybe skip gfs go straight to cmc lol jk.

 

[dsaur]

Yeah people take the clown maps at face value. They are way overdone

I don't know, they keep upping my imaginary totals from run to run. What could possibly be amiss? Besides the fact it would be improbable even in Jan., for me to get 11 inches, Lol. T

 

[Webberweather53]

What will be will be. I don't think we get totally blanked. Just seeing snow fall at this stage of winter would be great.

I think if the low becomes super strong that might hurt our chances for getting snow in the height of the storm, but probably only solidifies our shot to get some snowfall on the backside of the low w/ stronger CAA...

 

[accu35]

Hey Webb, for us south central Bama folks, are we sitting ok for now with this "potential" storm?

 

[drfranklin]

My brother lives in Columbus, GA - what should I tell him? LOL

 

[South AL Wx]

Yeah people take the clown maps at face value. They are way overdone

As BMX put it this morning:

"Have seen plenty of model snow accumulation maps floating around on
social media and elsewhere, but you can throw those algorithms and
10 to 1 ratios out the window in this situation given the warm
temperatures near the surface."

 

[packfan98]

Webber, is there any update on that jet streak you mentioned the other day?

 

[WeatherWatch]

I woudn't use 10:1 ratios, I'd use 5:1. What you see on the 10:1 ratio snowfall output maps will be cut in half. So, where you see that 10" in Georgia on the 12z NAM, that would be more like 4 1/2" to 5." Now, if the models start to show higher rates, of course the ratios would go up.

 

[vtrap90]

http://www.weather.gov/ffc/winter
I like the snowfall chances they have listed.Numbers keep growing.
Scroll down to the bottom of the page.

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

Remember when we called JB crazy for saying that euro was showing in the gulf? Lol

 

[accu35]

I woudn't use 10:1 ratios, I'd use 5:1. What you see on the 10:1 ratio snowfall output maps will be cut in half. So, where you see that 10" in Georgia on the 12z NAM, that would be more like 4 1/2" to 5." Now, if the models start to show higher rates, of course the ratios would go up.

Ill be happy to take my 3-5" range lol

 

[Webberweather53]

Hey Webb, for us south central Bama folks, are we sitting ok for now with this "potential" storm?

Looks fine, a stronger cyclone will probably result in more CAA and intense backside snow on this storm which is virtually the only way you're getting snow in this.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

http://www.weather.gov/ffc/winter
I like the snowfall chances they have listed.Numbers keep growing.

I would call that the “don’t say we didn’t say it could happen” product!

 

[packfan98]

Pivotal has a Kuchera ratio available. Looks like it stays between 6:1 to 8:1 on the NAM. However, one you get north of the Triad you get to 9:1 or 10:1. That, combined with colder surface and soil temps, is why they often get more snow accumulation with less moisture to work with. There's always a tradeoff.

 

[RollTide18]

Even with the realistic NAM totals, it's enough to make the southern half of this board very happy, obviously the 10:1 totals are once in a lifetime totals for those areas lol

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Storm5]

I'll take the 12z rgem . Has an expansive precip shield

 

[accu35]

I'll take the 12z rgem . Has an expansive precip shield

please post lol

 

[Storm5]

Parker this would work lol

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[Storm5]

please post lol

It only goes out to hour 48 . But it was headed for an amped system as well

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