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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

If this gets amped too much, it will pull it NW and warm the temps for most except mountains and extreme western parts, and even they will be close
 
Agreed! Plenty of Virga. NAM is actually not that far off.

Webberweather53 said:
Some of that precipitation is likely virga over portions of north-central Alabama and the finger of reflectivity protruding towards the metro. Also have to keep in mind w/ base reflectivity, the beam height increases w/ disturbance away from the radar site so as you look further away from Atlanta towards say Alabama you're actually looking up higher aloft where it is raining harder than at the surface
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That was a CMC lean . As Webber pointed out, the NAM is trying to crank the system . Of course it could just be the NAM being the NAM over amping things
 
Webberweather53 said:
The NAM is trending towards a more intense storm, the trough axis becoming less positively tilted, the upper level jet juxtaposition looks to be improving over the last few runs and the gulf low is stronger this time by a couple mb
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Yep and if correct we're screwed, look at the waa...
Unless 850's crash later on exit and get something on the backside
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Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 said:
That was a CMC lean . As Webber pointed out, the NAM is trying to crank the system . Of course it could just be the NAM being the NAM over amping things
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The changes that lead to amplification later on have to do more so w/ alterations in the speed of the disturbances early in the run that precipitate later on to changes in the strength of the cyclone off the SE coast, sure you can claim that maybe the diabatically-induced vortex is too strong due to the BMJ convective scheme in the model, etc. but this trend in a stronger storm further NW is prevalent in virtually all suites atm
 
NAM seems to always amp thing sup too much. Probably a blend of the Euro and NAM will work out.
 
MotoWeatherman said:
Take the NAM for what it's worth this far out (anything over 36+ hours)...entertainment purposes only. I can't stress enough how bad the NAM (Not Accurate Much) is.
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IDK, its been sticking to its guns. Ive seen Nam win over any other model when it comes to winter weather
 
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