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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

Arcc said:
I still say if 6-8" fall more than an inch or two will accumulate.
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EASILY!! That dang NAM run about caused me to run off the road. Charlie sent me the model and I went crazy. I have never seen that dark of blue pounding on top of my house. Looked intense. I don't even want to see another run, because itll just disappoint me now lol.
 
Here's the 3KM NAM positive snow depth change through hour 26. The northern shift is very apparent.

nam3km_asnowd_seus_27.png
 
Snowflowxxl said:
After looking at most recent models, Atlanta looks to be about 50 miles too south. I’m going to predict we will be on the wrong side of the 850 line for the majority of the storm.
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You feel the same way for areas southwest of Atl like Carrollton ?
 
So many maps, some little NW some staying little south. Im in the middel lol. Its nowcast time, because no matter what the models say as of now, we should be watching the radar
 
Arcc said:
*cough* northern expansion.
If yall keep saying shift yall will give our southern people a keniption.
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It's not just an expansion. The heaviest snow axis is shifting to the north. Rome was not the winners in previous runs. Now it's one of the places in GA you'll want to be at if the NAM 3KM is to be believed. The 850mb temps are also now above 0c in the Atlanta area whereas in previous runs, it was below 0c for a lot of the storm.
 
Dont know if being in the sweet spot on these maps even this close is a good thing lol. I can’t get 2 yrs ago out of my mind when it looked so good for my area right up to go time and it all went downhill
 
My location (far Northeastern Forsyth County, next to Lake Lanier and close to the Hall and Dawson lines) looks like it stays at -1c, -2c at 850mb for most of the day tomorrow per the NAM 3K. Again, this is going to be super close.

--30--
 
Wow! The National Weather Service afternoon discussion out of Raleigh is a big letdown after all of these great model runs for the Triad region. Here's a snippet:

...
There may be a sweet spot between the Triad and Triangle where some sleet and snow may fall and accumulate a bit on the elevated and grassy surfaces...snow will have a difficult time accumulating except for on elevated and grassy surfaces and under high precipitation rates. Generally less than an inch of snow is expected at this time, primarily between midnight and 7 AM Saturday.
 
Arcc said:
*cough* northern expansion.
If yall keep saying shift yall will give our southern people a keniption.
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Once again, that's taking boundary and ground temps into consideration. As precip shifts north, that algo will show greater "snow depth" further north. But again, higher rates etc etc. Beating a dead dog to death...
 
LovingGulfLows said:
It's not just an expansion. The heaviest snow axis is shifting to the north. Rome was not the winners in previous runs. Now it's one of the places in GA you'll want to be at if the NAM 3KM is to be believed. The 850mb temps are also now above 0c in the Atlanta area whereas in previous runs, it was below 0c for a lot of the storm.
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On the image you posted showed positive totals for nearly all of central AL.
 
Arcc said:
On the image you posted showed positive totals for nearly all of central AL.
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Oh yeah, I know...but the greater "change" shows up further north than recent runs due to the fact that precip is further north than recent runs...even though that corridor may not see as Much snowfall as you or I. Am I rambling at this point?
 
SD said:
18z NAM is bombs away off of the NC coast 997 and still going....nice snow band across the state Saturday...
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Cary_Snow95 said:
19z HRRR continues to show RDU flipping to heavy snow early tomorrow morning
hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_18.png
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SD said:
I will gladly forgive this event as being rain for the day tomorrow to get a closed upper low over the deep south and a blossoming snow band over NC.
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HRRR continues to look great, too. Maybe we'll end up with something decent after all.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
You have been in the hot zone the whole time and we are like 12-18 hours from showtime.

Is your roof in pretty good shape ?
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Yeah, put a new one on last year. Me and a buddy. Won't be doing that again, lol. But I won't be celebrating until I get some heavy wet snow and sleet on it, lol. The models now move me in and out, and the mets move me in and out, and it's the worst when it's not cold and you are waiting on the change over. Every event for the last few years that reached me, reached me maybe an hour before the rain left. It takes forever to cool down here. I'd much rather the cold be in place, so you know whatever falls is going to freeze, and just waiting for it to come up into the cold air. Waiting a change over is like simultaneous root canals.
 
dsaur said:
Yeah, put a new one on last year. Me and a buddy. Won't be doing that again, lol. But I won't be celebrating until I get some heavy wet snow and sleet on it, lol. The models now move me in and out, and the mets move me in and out, and it's the worst when it's not cold and you are waiting on the change over. Every event for the last few years that reached me, reached me maybe an hour before the rain left. It takes forever to cool down here. I'd much rather the cold be in place, so you know whatever falls is going to freeze, and just waiting for it to come up into the cold air. Waiting a change over is like simultaneous root canals.
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Oh yeah that agonizing wait on the changeover. Seems like it takes forever and is so frustrating. Sometimes it never changes over lmao.
 
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