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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

RollTide18 said:
Looks to be another good HRRR run
Click to expand...

It certainly will be for folks in MS, only out to hr 11 and there's more snow breaking out further north into South/Central MS on the 20z run vs 19z run. Most of southern MS was still rain or a mix during this timeframe (07z Fri) on the 19z run, now they've completely changed over to all snow or a mix on the 20z run. Precip is slightly further north overall in MS/AL/GA.
 
We all get a good hit on the HRRR

hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_18.png
 
NWS Bham afternoon forecast discussion should get people around I-20 happy...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
313 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Few small but perhaps significant changes to tomorrow`s forecast.

The two noticable trends in the guidance members continue to push
the precipitation field further north and increase the amounts. So
with that, had to go ahead and include the northeast three
counties into the advisory. Also, bumped up the amounts a bit too
with increasing confidence, again with the main concerns being in
the grassy areas and elevated surfaces since temperatures are
expected to remain on the warmer side.

One consideration as far as impacts are concerned are the
precipitation rates. Admittedly, the early runs had unimpressive
rates, but later runs have increased them substantially. Issue
being is that they are coming in the heaviest right around the
morning commute along the I-20 corridor. If those higher rates do
occur, there could be a few hours of accumulation during the
morning hours making for a messy commute. We need to be extremely
cautious there. However with the temperatures, it should melt away
rather quickly once it stops falling.

As always, keep in mind that this is winter weather in the South,
and there will be a lot of variation in the forecast and impacts.
Best advice is to stay off of the roadways, but if you must go
out, please check the road conditions and forecast first! Be
prepared!

17/KLAWS
 
metwannabe said:
That right there is fake news and this is not bantering, I have been burned by the RAP p more than once and as SD pointed out in the banter thread earlier never where we burned more than the winter of 2014 when it showed over 20 in here. With that said I certainly hope this one time it pulls a coup

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Click to expand...
Well at least it has the HRRR on its side as well
 
It may be arbitrary and mean absolutely nothing in the overall outcome, but I noticed the 20z HRRR initialized 3 degrees too warm here (50 vs 47 actual temperature), but the tradeoff is the dewpoint initialized 3 degrees too low. lol
 
SD said:
I'm not sure what is causing the HRRR to be so much colder than other models but I will take up, my house is right under the dark blue/purple
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Yes, it has been consistently looking great for us. Looks like precip is not going to be a problem, just temps. Maybe the precip is heavy enough to make it could enough for snow.
 
Folks... I just have to say. This is one interesting storm! We’ve went from Mets saying zero chance not happening to now a winter weather advisory and trending models. Glenn burns is on tv trying to explain how difficult this forecast is because it’s critically close to bust or boom possibly. He really is saying we have no idea lmao. This storm is weird! The layer above us isn’t below freezing but wouldn’t take much to change should heavier precipitation develop across N GA, which is a real possibility. Glenn was just showing sleet on the south side that’s been falling for a while mixed in so we are already seeing heavier precip rates bring down sleet. Is it that far fetched to see areas of heavier rain turn to snow and remain due to complete cooling of the column? Everyone on local here is very unsure and are honestly trying to explain more he difficulty verses what’s actually going to happen. Or maybe I am just crazy? Lmao??


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Cary_Snow95 said:
Well at least it has the HRRR on its side as well
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Agreed and I think it just shows when you have marginal temps and the models handle different pieces of the puzzle slightly differently you're going to get those varying outcomes. It is nice to see the short-range models trending colder however

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Went from barely anything to 4" on GFS. It seems all of the models are coming into alignment, for things. At the least should get something out of this thing.
 
gfs_asnow24_seus_4.png
I know short range models are to look at this range, but dang, gfs has went from nothing to this within a day
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Gfs very close to keeping Atlanta as cold rain for the event
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Not really if looking at current temp initially its rain but does change over with a good snow from 32 thru 42 again clown snow map but probably safe to say ATL gets easily 1-3 inches
gfs_asnow_seus_8.png
 
Wow! Never judge a model based off just the initial 30 hours lol. Saw the snow staying north and 850s creeping north and clicked out! From 36-42 ATL getting a good snow!
 
malak05 said:
Not really if looking at current temp initially its rain but does change over with a good snow from 32 thru 42 again clown snow map but probably safe to say ATL gets easily 1-3 inches
gfs_asnow_seus_8.png
Click to expand...

Location matches perfectly with the 12z GEFS mean just higher amounts along with the 12z and 18z NAM.

You can also see the colder air leaking down the valleys of the eastern counties. This type of event is rare in AL where the possible warmer nose is right at the surface.
 
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