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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

Going to be some thermal issues south of 20/59 corridor. Climatology says the precip shield should continue to drift NW today, but Im not so sure looking at the consistency of the GFS ensembles. It would be a shame to waste precip in a marginal temp area.
 
Dang! Looks like the warm nose area is set in stone. Could that change? Here we go again...geez
 
6z 3km NAM...Snow train, at least 8-10 hours worth of snowfall in GA, cause there will be a longer duration of streaming moisture.
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Brick Tamland said:
Great trends overnight for the Raleigh area as the models actually went a little SE. Even if it doesn't actually accumulate as much as the models showed, it still means a greater chance of seeing snow, and that's a win this early in winter.
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The nam is the only thing holding me back from getting really excited.

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Unless cold air is locked in place and there isn't a rain event that is blocking temps from diving that is in progress right now (or in the future)...seems like its just going to be hard to get a solid event east of I-85 in the southeast.

But it's no big deal. Maybe if it's 2014 like, the low to no totals in Northwest Georgia bust and they get a decent event...and if it works out well I'm going to ride through where it snowed the previous day.
 
Well let's see how it all plays out. I wanna see how the cold air drains in today and tomorrow. Warm nose looks nasty
 
SD said:
The nam is the only thing holding me back from getting really excited.

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See how it goes. NAM is just starting to get in its good range today.
 
If I was to model hug any model for my area, I'm gonna have to ride on the Euro train. It seems like the best case scenario for right now. I would be on the Canadian train too if we could get the 12z run from yesterday back again today. lol
 
Good morning folks. A friendly reminder that all of the wishcasting for models to shift towards your backyard is more appropriate for the Banter thread. We all want snow, but if everyone puts it in writing here, it really clutters up the thread. Thanks, and I hope today is a good day of model watching for all!
 
SD said:
The nam is the only thing holding me back from getting really excited.

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NAM leaves a lot to be desired with thermals, as always we're right on the freaking line

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.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
VFR conditions will continue through today although CIGS will
slowly lower through the afternoon hours. MVFR cigs will develop
in the CSG/MCN during the afternoon and across all of the forecast
area this evening, becoming IFR cigs late tonight. Light rain
will continue across the TAFs through the forecast. The rain will
become mixed with light snow late tonight in the ATL area but
change back to rain late Friday morning. Winds will remain
northwest 5 to 10 kts.
FFC
 
09Z SREF is out. Mean snowfall for Katl is down slightly from ~1.96" to 1.5", but more members in the 2"-5" range than the 3Z run. There is 6 members in the 2"-4" range which is up from only 2 members in the same range on 03Z.
 
packfan98 said:
Good morning folks. A friendly reminder that all of the wishcasting for models to shift towards your backyard is more appropriate for the Banter thread. We all want snow, but if everyone puts it in writing here, it really clutters up the thread. Thanks, and I hope today is a good day of model watching for all!
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And also, (this is just a suggestion) if you want to post AFDs don't copy and paste the entire wording. Those AFDs can be really long, and they block up the feed. Copy the link to the AFD instead.
 
metwannabe said:
NAM leaves a lot to be desired with thermals, as always we're right on the freaking line

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Yep. And Irma should serve as a reminder how models can do a lot of shifting even within the 48 hr range as it did for that storm. If I were on the line I’d be very leery of missing out.


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metwannabe said:
NAM leaves a lot to be desired with thermals, as always we're right on the freaking line

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Yep. The best place in a snow storm is just on the cold side of the change over. I think it's possible someone gets a decent event in our area but I'm not sure it's us

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SD said:
Yep. The best place in a snow storm is just on the cold side of the change over. I think it's possible someone gets a decent event in our area but I'm not sure it's us

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Yep it's a fine line we walk you have to flirt with disaster in order to obtain the glory, I think Roxboro is looking good right now. Anyway we'll see what it looks like as the day progresses anything can happen

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DadOfJax said:
Going to be some thermal issues south of 20/59 corridor. Climatology says the precip shield should continue to drift NW today, but Im not so sure looking at the consistency of the GFS ensembles. It would be a shame to waste precip in a marginal temp area.
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No, not unless something has changed. Sounding have supported snow to Montgomery for days.
 
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