Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Something weird happens with precip field from 42-45. Looks good at 42 then poof at 45. I don't buy that.

 

[Brent]

Brownsville Texas gets more snow than Alabama/Georgia this run

 

[deltadog03]

Looks awful this run. Lol oh nam

 

[RollTide18]

Looks like i85 north Through GA and upstate would be mostly snow. Looksvto me like its cold enough through the column to support snow.

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Yeah but there's barely any moisture on this run

 

[Arcc]

Go back and look at the soundings. You may be surprised to find they don't support snow for too long.

The soundings support snow across the higher accumulation area in AL just about the whole time on the 3km NAM. But that isn't the issue I have. If you have 7 inches fall with a surface temp 33-34 degrees at a high rate, it will accumulate more than an inch. One of his algorithms must be off.

Edit: Unless it is calculated at a lower ratio. That is probably what it is.

 

[cg2916]

This is such an outlier from the other runs.

 

[Xtreme Weather]

Was the GFS right all along... Lol only 250mi shift S on the NAM

 

[RollTide18]

This is such an outlier from the other runs.

Hopefully just a hiccup and not a trend, also it was mentioned earlier that the NAM was a southern outlier anyway, really gonna be an outlier now.

 

[Snownut]

Watch frame 42 to 45. Im not buying that.


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[deltadog03]

Hr51 last shot for us in GA

 

[bud006]

I try to stay out of play-by-play because I am FAR from an expert, but the moisture just goes poof from 42 to 45. Maybe a southern outlier? Let's see what the other suites say tonight. Very interesting ...

 

[Parker]

The 00z runs have sucked the past 3 nights. I’m not worried yet. Let’s see what the others say.

 

[SD]

NAM is much weaker with the trough and positively tilted. You lose your cold source on the northwest side and the good moisture influx.

 

[RollTide18]

Watch frame 42 to 45. Im not buying that.


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This happens in a span of three hours

@deltadog03 @Webberweather53 do y'all buy this?

 

[Snownut]

Now watch the GFS come in with widespread 3" LOL!

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[Snowfan]

I'll see if this starts a trend.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

If the RGEM looks like that, it will be time to worry. Not till then

 

[Snowfan]

Guests, please register and join the fun!

 

[Nomanslandva]

Looking at individual members of both ensembles that have been posted seems like a really dry solution was possible. Even though means ticked up in some cases, there was much spread in members for 48 hours out. This may be a BS run but there are a lot of crappy ensemble members out there that should be worrisome.

 

[Snowfan]

I'll rather see what happens of the Euro or the GFS.