I think it’s the nam
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Just took a look at the soundings from that run. Over western NC it shows an extremely dry punch of air at 800-850mb and the air is still saturated above that. Dew points plunge to -25C at 850mb and there is a strong cold nose. I don't buy it. Has to be a bogus run.
Xtreme Weather
Member
Was very subtle change over southern Canada at 500mb as Shane pointed out that cause the NAM debacle
How come the live thread isn't on?
Yep it gets really wonky with the way it handles trough overall. It's certainly a viable solution but it's a big continuity break.
Storm5
Member
Because we have a million guests that need to sign up that are hitting refresh killing the server . But fear not it's all being fixed overnight and it will be back on tomorrow morning
PennyForYoutThoughts
Member
Rgem is running, guess we can see if it follows the nam
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
NAM showing some weird stuff with the 850's, that pocket of colder moves ne then they warm before starting to come back down
Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
I think the reason you're seeing that is because there's a relative break between the two weak waves of low pressure along the arctic boundary and this area of cooler 850s corresponds to where its not raining, which at nighttime may be allowing for an extra degree or two of radiational cooling that otherwise wouldn't be occurring in areas w/ precipitation but it's a very interesting feature you pointed out and I'm sure there are other mechanisms at play too as well as issues w/ the model forecast itself.
Storm5
Member
Rgem looks similar to the 18z run . Precip field well North of the NAM. Atlanta getting crushed this run
Snowflowxxl
Member
Would much rather have the RGEM on our side than the NAM
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Hard to really buy any precipitation forecast this far in advance from a model, especially one w/ a coarse resolution like the 12km NAM that's likely incapable of resolving convection. We'll have to wait until at least later tomorrow evening if this is indeed a legitimate feature on the 3km version of the NAM that could come to pass or is merely random noise
I just caught up on 20+ pages since I left for work this morning. I'm glad to come home to some good news, no need to cliff dive yet for a while longer. lol Also the freakout over the NAM, you think I'm really going to hinge everything on what could happen Thursday night/Friday because of the NAM?! It's been stoned just like every other model from one time to another up to this point.
RollTide18
Member
Few more minutes until the GFS
Xtreme Weather
Member
Slight shift south with precip field on the 0z RGEM fwiw....
W
WeatherLC
Guest
Guests please register
I don't know how reliable either versions of the WRF models are on TT, but this is what they show at the end of their 48hr runs. I figured I would post them anyway since they're short range models and were heading into short range time for this storm.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...ef_frzn&runtime=2017120700&fh=2&xpos=0&ypos=0
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...ion=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2017120700&fh=1
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...ef_frzn&runtime=2017120700&fh=2&xpos=0&ypos=0
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...ion=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2017120700&fh=1