Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

[ForsythSnow]

I go away for 5 hours and come back and this place is deader than a doornail. I guess our big snow is no longer going to happen ?

People do this every year thinking it's the end of the world either for :

1. An event that never was going to happen in their backyard at all
2. People are freaking out that a sudden shift will happen
3. People are just waiting on the next model like it matters more than anything else.

I honestly feel right now that if you are in the range that we are looking at, hope you are at least 20 miles NW of the change over line predicted, as that will likely be the disappointment belt. Atlanta may get a sleetfest from the soundings on the NAM, or may just barely get by.

A "big snow" never was going to happen.

That's the way a lot of mets think. I reasonably say nobody is getting more than 3 inches across all of the southeast with this storm. If I score an inch and a half or more, it's a big snow. Just remember that the next 48 hours will flip to the globals becoming unreliable and the NAM and other short range models take over, so it's time to stick the crazy uncle and stubborn GFS aside starting tomorrow midday.

Can we keep the banter down? These 0z runs are huge

I agree as the 0Z is starting up soon.

 

[DadOfJax]

Based on what?

Based on surface temps, precip rates, faster system, overdone clown snow maps, etc. It's not going to be a "big snow"...it will be fun, as every storm in the South is...just not going to amount to anything big.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Was outside around 11 this morning and saw a light sleet shower. First pellets of the year.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Based on surface temps, precip rates, faster system, overdone clown snow maps, etc. It's not going to be a "big snow"...it will be fun, as every storm in the South is...just not going to amount to anything big.

Clown map VS map of reason. Glad Levi came out with these.

 

[deltadog03]

Time for the nam lol

 

[ForsythSnow]

Nam way different at 16 in regards to precip ahead of the main system. Low further West.

 

[whatalife]

Time for the nam lol

The NAM is my new favorite model until it doesn’t show me what I want


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[PennyForYoutThoughts]

Yeah, seems most of the precipitation is farther west than last run at hour 16

 

[whatalife]

NAM looks to be warmer at 16 hr.


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[RollTide18]

It may appear drier early on but radar fills in at hr 22

850s warmer tho

 

[deltadog03]

The NAM is my new favorite model until it doesn’t show me what I want


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To me it looks colder so far

 

[deltadog03]

Thru hr 22 it’s def colder

 

[ForsythSnow]

To me it looks colder so far

I thought it was warmer too until I looked at the hours and realized they didn't match up.

 

[Xtreme Weather]

Northern precip field expands N at 21hr

 

[whatalife]

To me it looks colder so far

Yes it does at hr 22


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[ForsythSnow]

Northern precip field expands N at 21hr

I think this could be a real :weenie: run if things work like that.

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

I think this could be a real :weenie: run if things work like that.

Uh oh. It’s taking a little longer to get us precip

 

[Xtreme Weather]

Thinks NAM to warm at the surface aloft appears cold enough for snow through the column

 

[Arcc]

Clown map VS map of reason. Glad Levi came out with these.

I don't trust the bottom image. I'm not saying the top image will verify, but if you get the rate to put 7-8 inches down, you will end up with more than 1-2 inches of accumulation.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Uh oh. It’s taking a little longer to get us precip

Actually it's just a bit NW early on. The real wave will begin at hour 45 ish.