This is looking like my area is going to easily bust on the low side. Oh well you can't win them all.Once the band actually gets into Raleigh on this run it's not as heavy though. Obviously alot of mixing so take with a pile of salt.
This is looking like my area is going to easily bust on the low side. Oh well you can't win them all.Once the band actually gets into Raleigh on this run it's not as heavy though. Obviously alot of mixing so take with a pile of salt.
I am not getting snookered by any model. Things are progressing just as I figured they would days ago.I never said that. I said accumulating snow.
I said the H5 low wouldn't track far enough south to bring in enough cold and dry air for accumulating snow outside the mountains and higher elevations (i.e. Foothills). Sorry if you're getting snookered by the NAM.
Yeah this is evolving into a classic surprise event for someone east of the mountains, it’s insane to see low topped super cells trying to form near coastal NC on the CAMs simultaneously in conjunction with very heavy wet snow within a span of about 100-125 miles or so.I am not getting snookered by any model. Things are progressing just as I figured they would days ago.
I never said that. I said accumulating snow.
I said the H5 low wouldn't track far enough south to bring in enough cold and dry air for accumulating snow outside the mountains and higher elevations (i.e. Foothills). Sorry if you're getting snookered by the NAM.
The HRRR is showomg virtually the same thing as well as the new high res Canadian model (HRDPS)It is to bad it’s only the NAM’s show this. I think we have all been burned by riding the NAM’s. The 0z RGEM looks more reasonable and matches up with where RAH has the WWA’s.
The upper low track is nice though.
Here’s what the ARW, NAM nest, NMMB, & NSSL versions of the WRF are showing with lagged plots (previous runs) also depicted. We must be getting “snookered” by all these high res models and the HRRR and HRDPS because they don’t differ by too terribly much. The exact timing, placement, & amplitude of the snow varies amongst each of these HREF members and the HRRR, but the NAM’s solution isn’t all that different or crazy in a general sense.The HRRR is showomg virtually the same thing as well as the new high res Canadian model (HRDPS)
Yeah its pretty tough to get accumulating snow in the daytime in Mid March when temps are above freezing. It better be snowing at insane rate for it to stick.I think there will be snow that falls....probably even heavy snow for a period, but I was one of those bitter, yet curious persons that decided to follow the last Nor'easter and NYC was struggling to get snow to accumulate even with rates of 1-2" per hour so I'd be careful especially since this is falling during the day for much of NC(at least the western half). Those who have sundown on their side will probably find it easier to get some snow to stick. The ratios are going to be crap...like 6:1 ratios if even that.
As soon as I posted this snow started falling at a good clip and I now have a dusting of wet snow and a temp of 33 degrees. Good way to cap off winter even if it doesn't accumulate to much.A little bit of snow falling here but temps still at 34 degrees so no sticking.
Here's my first crack at this storm, should be a low impact event overall w/ any snow/sleet mainly confined north of US 64, some flakes or sleet pellets could mix in south & east of there towards Charlotte and Fayetteville
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