Wintry Winter Mischief For Upper SE 3/12/18

[Webberweather53]

That is a decent hit. Maybe this will be a situation where things get better as we get closer to the storm arriving.

Accounting for melting due to warm ground temps these totals are at least slashed in half and there's a widespread T-1 amounts with some isolated 1-2 further east where it snowed longer. I would take it in either case.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Accounting for melting due to warm ground temps these totals are at least slashed in half and there's a widespread T-1 amounts with some isolated 1-2 further east where it snowed longer. I would take it in either case.
View attachment 4437

Yeah, an inch in March is a win. I am just hoping to get some time off work tomorrow.

 

[Webberweather53]

Here's my first crack at this storm, should be a low impact event overall w/ any snow/sleet mainly confined north of US 64, some flakes or sleet pellets could mix in south & east of there towards Charlotte and Fayetteville

 

[ForsythSnow]

The sounding on the 3km NAM at the far NE GA border looks exciting at 17Z this run.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Here's my first crack at this storm, should be a low impact event overall w/ any snow/sleet mainly confined north of US 64, some flakes or sleet pellets could mix in south & east of there towards Charlotte and Fayetteville
View attachment 4438

Not a bad first call map... Pretty much in line with guidance. This one has bust potential either way.

 

[Jon]

A casual 2.6”/hr maximum snowfall rate for NW of Wake Co. on the 3km NAM

 

[Tacoma]

Yes was hoping for more than one inch but at this point I'll take the inch.

 

[Webberweather53]

Not a bad first call map... Pretty much in line with guidance. This one has bust potential either way.

I just don't think this has large bust potential on the upper end at least not yet anyways, I will be shocked if anyone east of the mountains tops out over 2-3". The selling point for me to go conservatively on the snowfall totals east of the mountains is the fact we'll have to erode a very stout +5-7C warm nose. Even w/ robust low-level cold air advection and melting hydrometeors cooling the low-levels on the backside of the low, once the CAA sets in and the mid-level warm nose begins to erode, turbulent mixing will offset these cooling processes as the entire low-mid level layer becomes effectively homogenized, keeping the low levels from getting too much colder than they would otherwise and the propensity for sleet mixing in (which will have ratios of ~2-3:1) will further hamper any snow accumulation.

Just accounting for melting, the snow accumulations are heavily dampened w/ only a few isolated spots getting 1-2". This map doesn't consider mixing w/ sleet (but does consider melting & compaction) and if you do so, these accumulations shown below will be cut by at least half or two-thirds.

 

[Webberweather53]

I just don't think this has large bust potential on the upper end at least not yet anyways, I will be shocked if anyone east of the mountains tops out over 2-3". The selling point for me to go conservatively on the snowfall totals east of the mountains is the fact we'll have to erode a very stout +5-7C warm nose. Even w/ robust low-level cold air advection and melting hydrometeors cooling the low-levels on the backside of the low, once the CAA sets in and the mid-level warm nose begins to erode, turbulent mixing will offset these cooling processes as the entire low-mid level layer becomes effectively homogenized, keeping the low levels from getting too much colder than they would otherwise and the propensity for sleet mixing in (which will have ratios of ~2-3:1) will further hamper any snow accumulation.

Just accounting for melting, the snow accumulations are heavily dampened w/ only a few isolated spots getting 1-2". This map doesn't consider mixing w/ sleet (but does consider melting & compaction) and if you do so, these accumulations shown below will be cut by at least half or two-thirds.
View attachment 4440
View attachment 4441

You can further add onto the fact that not only will ground temps be warm, many areas will be covered in or saturated w/ water from preceding rainfall. Given water's high heat capacity, this means it's actually harder to cool warm, saturated soil to the freezing than warm dry soil. Therefore, a larger proportion of the latent heating from melting snow flakes and sleet pellets that try to cool the ground to freezing will go into cooling the water laying within or on top of the ground rather than the ground itself, further hampering snow/sleet accumulations in east-central NC.

 

[Tarheel1]

The fact that Roxboro could get more than DC metro and most of the MA, and it skips up the coast and backs in to give BOS another foot+, and NYC possibly 6”+, is fantastic

 

[Tarheel1]

You can further add onto the fact that not only will ground temps be warm, many areas will be covered in or saturated w/ water from preceding rainfall. Given water's high heat capacity, this means it's actually harder to cool warm, saturated soil to the freezing than warm dry soil. Therefore, a larger proportion of the latent heating from melting snow flakes and sleet pellets that try to cool the ground to freezing will go into cooling the water laying within or on top of the ground rather than the ground itself, further hampering snow/sleet accumulations in east-central NC.

I had all these problems in March 1 2009, still got 8”! Different setup/ time of year, yadda, but wet ground, sun angle, all overrated

 

[Webberweather53]

I had all these problems in March 1 2009, still got 8”! Different setup/ time of year, yadda, but wet ground, sun angle, all overrated

March 2009 also didn't have to contend with a huge warm nose aloft that will keep the heaviest precipitation in the form of sleet/rain or sleet/snow rather than pure wet snow here and the heaviest precipitation came during the overnight hours in this event instead of the middle of the afternoon like what's liable to occur in this instance.

 

[Brick Tamland]

A casual 2.6”/hr maximum snowfall rate for NW of Wake Co. on the 3km NAM

Wow, close to the sweet spot for me.

 

[Jon]

March 2009 also didn't have to contend with a huge warm nose aloft that will keep the heaviest precipitation in the form of sleet/rain or sleet/snow rather than pure wet snow here and the heaviest precipitation came during the overnight hours in this event instead of the middle of the afternoon like what's liable to occur in this instance.
View attachment 4442

Yeah. Brutal timing for Central NC. One has to consider sun angle with this one even though I hate the mention of those two words. Not much working for us with this storm, although with the heaviest band the warm nose should erode rather quickly on exit...will be nice looking, but the ground surely won’t reflect the rates seen in those bands. I’d love to get some heavy rates...the timing later now make it after work for me so I’ll chase the rates if it’s within a 1hr drive. Lol


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[GaWx]

Nice potential for Brick & company to see some snow falling even if little sticking! This March is living up to its mag/marv buildup! The first half of March has surely been magnificent here!!

 

[Brick Tamland]

I just want to see some snow falling instead of more rain. And the threat of snow could always send me home early from work.

 

[Webberweather53]

HREF ensemble mean QPF and precipitation type thru 36 hours. Diurnal timing will hurt RDU.

 

[ForsythSnow]

HREF ensemble mean QPF and precipitation type thru 36 hours. Diurnal timing will hurt RDU.

Of course it has to be an hour or 2 too slow for a chance here unless there are heavier rates, which I doubt will develop until it's past here. Maybe I'll get lucky and see a few flakes, but if not, it's not a big loss. Just glad the MA is getting skipped for the most part.

 

[pcbjr]

Of course it has to be an hour or 2 too slow for a chance here unless there are heavier rates, which I doubt will develop until it's past here. Maybe I'll get lucky and see a few flakes, but if not, it's not a big loss. Just glad the MA is getting skipped for the most part.

Whether anyone sees a flake or not, it's just incredible, after February, to even see a hint on the modeling.
One thing's for sure, through the 16th at least, we all have some nice temps to enjoy ...

 

[Brick Tamland]

When is the timing ever accurate?