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Wintry Winter Mischief For Upper SE 3/12/18

packfan98 said:
Most Triad county schools are closed. I think there's too many unknowns at this point. It's going to snow hard and begin to pile up somewhere for a short period of time. Some school systems have already caught lots of flack earlier in the year when they didn't dismiss in time. Better safe than sorry, but I'm sure some will complain that they cancelled schools because it rained.
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Simulated radar, looks like that was a good call! About 1-4pm, most of the triad gets hammered hard during that time, don’t want busses on roads with 2” an hour rates and thundersnow!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Big bust for Roanoke VA! Calling for 3-5”, based on radar and live coverage, not even a dusting!
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Could see it coming early yesterday and throughout all the model runs all day and evening that kept getting drier. We went from over an inch in qpf in almost every solution Sat to down to barely .5 last night with some drier.

That being said, we did make it to 32/30 (to my surprise) in my hood which is 200 feet above the valley floor and have at least 1.5 on elevated surfaces. Yea,we can only hope we get a decent band that sets up and hangs a little longer. HRRR shows a decent bad but it is a little east of here so need a little help. I think mby will make 3 but will be gone before I get home from work so:(

edit, EURO below .4 total qpf so hard to get a winter storm with that and borderline temps.
 
I’ve been looking at the 5H maps. It looks like the ULL is going to make a perfect pass for the western piedmont. It’s trended much further south from a few days ago. I guess that slow moving 50-50 block is doing its job.
 
packfan98 said:
This should be interesting. All of the models have the dynamic lift and area of greatest snowfall in the southern part of the Triad. Here's a recap of the current modeling. The maps show 10:1 which won't happen, but you can see the similarity.
09z hrrr
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nam 3k
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12k nam
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RGEM
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GFS
sn10_acc.us_ma.png

I don't have the Euro, but I saw where it had a widespread area of 4+ inches over the Triad.
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NWS issued an advisory as far east as my area but with the exception of The NAM most modeling struggling to get Frozen precip this far east. Definitely precip rate driven so I'm assuming as it translates East loses some punch and I'd be lying if I didn't say I'm going to be upset with you if you get 4 or 5 in and I get nada. Lol

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Just switched to snow in Mt. Airy in Surry County. Foothills looks to have switched over. Line marching south and east towards Pilot Mountain and King. Scheduled to reach the NW Triad between 10 and 11am.
 
Greensboro & Raleigh have consistently been on the colder side of guidance thus far today and yesterday certainly something worth watching down the line, because a degree or so may make all the difference.
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Webberweather53 said:
You're sitting in amazing spot right now tbh, I hope you score big here!
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Thanks! How are the dynamics and ULL looking to you this morning? Still a shot at thundersnow? If that happens, it will pile up with 2" an hour rates, even on the roads. Temp right now is 33, much colder than progged yesterday.
 
Jon said:
Would be stupid not to considering the impacts and omega/DGZ crosshairs, after all that has a high predictability in WSW over WWA events. Lol


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Latest hrrr run supports this potential to the east. Previous run did not.
sn10_acc.us_ma.png
 
packfan98 said:
Thanks! How are the dynamics and ULL looking to you this morning? Still a shot at thundersnow? If that happens, it will pile up with 2" an hour rates, even on the roads. Temp right now is 33, much colder than progged yesterday.
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Yeah nothing has really changed overall since yesterday, very strong CVA & isentropic upglide underneath this ULL will be the primary forcing mechanisms for lift as it passes to our south, models are still apparently mishandling the in-situ CAD entrenched over most of central NC as surface temps are cooler than forecast in many spots over the north-central piedmont.
Screen Shot 2018-03-12 at 7.40.47 AM.png
 
Things look good this morning to a least see some snow here. Would be great to get those high rates and experience thundersnow here.
 
Congrats to those that see snow . I'm currently at 30,000 feet on way to the DC area where I will be on flurry watch later today . I tried telling them they were screwed because I was coming
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Matthew East just posted this on Facebook.

Sleet has made it as far south as Lincolnton and Statesville as of 8:15am. Snow in Kernersville in Forsyth County.
 
Here's my 2nd and final crack at this storm. Snow/sleet may fall very quickly underneath this deformation band in parts of the north-central piedmont potentially leading to isolated power outages and slushy roads esp in/around the Triad.
March 12-13 2018 NC Forecast Snowmap 2.png
 
I'm driving through Davie county. 10 mi west of WS. SNOW!
 
Love these storms where things continue to improve as it unfolds.
 
Looks like changeover is about an hour ahead of schedule. Wife reporting snow in Winston-Salem. 33 and rain right now in Greensboro near airport.
 
Schools around here are starting to dismiss 2 hours early. Durham, Orange, and Person already announced. Wake is always the last to decide.
 
Latest HRRRRRRRrrr gets the r/s line right to the edge of Wake and goes POOF. So much for the improving trend.
 
Accumulating.
 

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Rain Cold said:
Latest HRRRRRRRrrr gets the r/s line right to the edge of Wake and goes POOF. So much for the improving trend.
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I think it's struggling with thermal profiles, rates, etc... my opinion, b/c the frozen comes back with vengeance just east of you and continues to improve east (ahem mby lol)
 
metwannabe said:
I think it's struggling with thermal profiles, rates, etc... my opinion, b/c the frozen comes back with vengeance just east of you and continues to improve east (ahem mby lol)
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Hopefully so. It's weird. It just makes a complete gap around Wake Co. Hopefully, it's what you said.
 
Rain Cold said:
Hopefully so. It's weird. It just makes a complete gap around Wake Co. Hopefully, it's what you said.
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Heat island in full effect? Hopefully this will improve for you, we know it's precip driven so could see some snow "islands" with it
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ForsythSnow said:
36 and still nothing. Oh well, I guess after these freezes, it's the end of winter. Good luck to everyone in NC today!
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I saw some graupel mixing with the rain about an hour ago before I left for work. It was definitely unexpected.
 
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