Wintry Winter Mischief For Upper SE 3/12/18

[Brick Tamland]

Wow, NAM is not backing down. Increasing the totals a lot. Maybe this will be a surprise one. WRAL has me in the trace to 2 inches. I would take it.

 

[Xtreme Weather]

sunny skies and temps well above freezing the roads should be fine.

So which is it?

He has no clue just rambles it would seem... Anyway

 

[Webberweather53]

The ECMWF busted bad on the high today in RDU, supposed to get to about 50 only about 45F thus far, even the HRRR was 3-4F too warm. Looks like the models messed up the in-situ/hybrid CAD that's become entrenched over the state.

 

[Tarheel1]

Just make sure you wake up early so that you will see it before it melts. With temps between 45 and 50 tomorrow in North TN it will be a distant memory by afternoon.

You’re such a tool! How much did you see in Wimpianapolis?

 

[Tarheel1]

The ECMWF busted bad on the high today in RDU, supposed to get to about 50 only about 45F thus far, even the HRRR was 3-4F too warm. Looks like the models messed up the in-situ/hybrid CAD that's become entrenched over the state.
View attachment 4450

Yeah, hell, I was supposed to be 55, sitting at 46

 

[pcbjr]

You’re such a tool! How much did you see in Wimpianapolis?

Now, now ... This sorta shˆ† belongs American ...

 

[packfan98]

18z RGEM

 

[Tarheel1]

18z RGEM

LOL! 1.5” for CLT, 0 for RAH! Glad I’ve known since Feb, this would only be rain for me!

 

[SoutheastRidge]

sunny skies and temps well above freezing the roads should be fine.

So which is it?

They are saying 6-10" of snow possible, followed by sunny skies and temps in the 40s in KY. I imagine most of it will be melted by afternoon.

 

[cd2play]

They are saying 6-10" of snow possible, followed by sunny skies and temps in the 40s in KY. I imagine most of it will be melted by afternoon.

In other words, 6-10 inches of snow amounting to ONE snow day for schools up there.

 

[Tarheel1]

Not sure if this has been posted, but from WxSouth:

 

[SoutheastRidge]

View attachment 4451 Not sure if this has been posted, but from WxSouth:

I wonder why his map doesn't show what the colors mean. I'm going to just guess the pink indicates 3-6".

 

[Jon]

Latest HRRR for rush hour tomorrow....

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[pcbjr]

View attachment 4451 Not sure if this has been posted, but from WxSouth:

1 and 1/2 states too far north ...

 

[ForsythSnow]

Just too warm here sadly. Also just a little dry.

 

[pcbjr]

Just too warm here sadly. Also just a little dry. View attachment 4454

 

[Rain Cold]

Latest HRRR for rush hour tomorrow....

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Can we get that band to stall out for a few hours, please?

 

[cd2play]

I didn't know that I was starving til I tasted you

 

[GaWx]

Yeah, I’m hoping for snow tv with a slushy heavy dusting to a half inch on the high end.

Probably a dumb question, but what is "snow tv"? I've heard of snowy reception on a TV channel.

 

[pcbjr]

Probably a dumb question, but what is "snow tv"? I've heard of snowy reception on a TV channel.

Probably doesn't accurately answer the question, but ...

 

[Tarheel1]

I wonder why his map doesn't show what the colors mean. I'm going to just guess the pink indicates 3-6".

Pink = roof collapses

 

[Brick Tamland]

Latest HRRR for rush hour tomorrow....

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Yikes!

 

[Kylo]

The 18z Hires RGEM gets snow/sleet down further south and east as the NAM.

 

[Tarheel1]

Probably a dumb question, but what is "snow tv"? I've heard of snowy reception on a TV channel.

Watching it fall from the sky, with no effects! No accums, no issues! Just “ watching” it fall

 

[Brick Tamland]

Can we get that band to stall out for a few hours, please?

Yeah, even if it doesn't stick, it would be great to see. And gives us a good excuse to leave work early.

 

[Brick Tamland]

The 18z Hires RGEM gets snow/sleet down further south and east as the NAM.

Wow, it and the NAM show a good hit.

 

[packfan98]

Probably a dumb question, but what is "snow tv"? I've heard of snowy reception on a TV channel.

Watching it fall from the sky, with no effects! No accums, no issues! Just “ watching” it fall

Mack got it right. The Mid Atlantic folks started using the term a couple of years back.

 

[ForsythSnow]

I think the models may be underestimating the precip in the back side. Seems per radar to be more than even the current HRRR run.

 

[olhausen]

Just make sure you wake up early so that you will see it before it melts. With temps between 45 and 50 tomorrow in North TN it will be a distant memory by afternoon.

I'll just watch it tonight since I don't usually go to bed until 2:30 am most nights.

 

[RBR71]

Latest HRRR for rush hour tomorrow....

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Whether this accumulates much or not the potential for a brief period of heavy snow is intriguing to say the least. Maybe some fat pancakes during rush hour in Raleigh, no bueno lol

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[Brick Tamland]

Whether this accumulates much or not the potential for a brief period of heavy snow is intriguing to say the least. Maybe some fat pancakes during rush hour in Raleigh, no bueno lol

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Yeah, worst possible time for the heaviest snow.

 

[deltadog03]

I am so out of the loop on this one. Hope y’all see some wintry precipitation

 

[Webberweather53]

Omg. Omega is practically going off the charts in the DGZ.

 

[packfan98]

Omg. Omega is practically going off the charts in the DGZ.
View attachment 4456

That dot you took the sounding from is right over my house. Looks like fun! LET THE HRRR HALLUCINATIONS BEGIN!!!!

 

[Brick Tamland]

Keep saying we do better with these events that evolve over time as we get closer to zero hour.

 

[Tarheel1]

That dot you took the sounding from is right over my house. Looks like fun! LET THE HRRR HALLUCINATIONS BEGIN!!!!

Doesn’t the HRRR suck? Or is that just until it shows snow over your house?

 

[ForsythSnow]

Omg. Omega is practically going off the charts in the DGZ.
View attachment 4456

Except for the dry air, looks a little less here as the edge of what I could call the non existent band is going through. Any chance that there could actually be precipitation or is it just energy? Seems too dry to me.

 

[Webberweather53]

More HRRR porn.



Yeah umm this is definitely thundersnow mixed w/ graupel

 

[Webberweather53]

Except for the dry air, looks a little less here as the edge of what I could call the non existent band is going through. Any chance that there could actually be precipitation or is it just energy? Seems too dry to me.
View attachment 4458

Certainly not out of the question a couple isolated snow showers show up esp over extreme NE GA, the CVA is going to be extremely intense w/ this ULL.

 

[Jon]

Except for the dry air, looks a little less here as the edge of what I could call the non existent band is going through. Any chance that there could actually be precipitation or is it just energy? Seems too dry to me.
View attachment 4458

Energy. You can tell with the dew point and temp lines are far apart, there's no relative humidity or moisture in the atmosphere there. In Webb's image you can see these lines on top of one another, from the ground all thew way up to 500mb, showing full saturation of the column with moisture. From there, you can see Omega maxed out in the DGZ, very heavy snowfall per the sounding.