• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter Mischief For Upper SE 3/12/18

packfan98 said:
Most Triad county schools are closed. I think there's too many unknowns at this point. It's going to snow hard and begin to pile up somewhere for a short period of time. Some school systems have already caught lots of flack earlier in the year when they didn't dismiss in time. Better safe than sorry, but I'm sure some will complain that they cancelled schools because it rained.
Click to expand...
Simulated radar, looks like that was a good call! About 1-4pm, most of the triad gets hammered hard during that time, don’t want busses on roads with 2” an hour rates and thundersnow!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Big bust for Roanoke VA! Calling for 3-5”, based on radar and live coverage, not even a dusting!
Click to expand...

Could see it coming early yesterday and throughout all the model runs all day and evening that kept getting drier. We went from over an inch in qpf in almost every solution Sat to down to barely .5 last night with some drier.

That being said, we did make it to 32/30 (to my surprise) in my hood which is 200 feet above the valley floor and have at least 1.5 on elevated surfaces. Yea,we can only hope we get a decent band that sets up and hangs a little longer. HRRR shows a decent bad but it is a little east of here so need a little help. I think mby will make 3 but will be gone before I get home from work so:(

edit, EURO below .4 total qpf so hard to get a winter storm with that and borderline temps.
 
I’ve been looking at the 5H maps. It looks like the ULL is going to make a perfect pass for the western piedmont. It’s trended much further south from a few days ago. I guess that slow moving 50-50 block is doing its job.
 
packfan98 said:
This should be interesting. All of the models have the dynamic lift and area of greatest snowfall in the southern part of the Triad. Here's a recap of the current modeling. The maps show 10:1 which won't happen, but you can see the similarity.
09z hrrr
sn10_acc.us_ma.png

nam 3k
sn10_acc.us_ma.png

12k nam
sn10_acc.us_ma.png

RGEM
sn10_acc.us_ma.png

GFS
sn10_acc.us_ma.png

I don't have the Euro, but I saw where it had a widespread area of 4+ inches over the Triad.
Click to expand...
NWS issued an advisory as far east as my area but with the exception of The NAM most modeling struggling to get Frozen precip this far east. Definitely precip rate driven so I'm assuming as it translates East loses some punch and I'd be lying if I didn't say I'm going to be upset with you if you get 4 or 5 in and I get nada. Lol

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
Just switched to snow in Mt. Airy in Surry County. Foothills looks to have switched over. Line marching south and east towards Pilot Mountain and King. Scheduled to reach the NW Triad between 10 and 11am.
 
Greensboro & Raleigh have consistently been on the colder side of guidance thus far today and yesterday certainly something worth watching down the line, because a degree or so may make all the difference.
Screen Shot 2018-03-12 at 7.27.23 AM.png
Screen Shot 2018-03-12 at 7.26.53 AM.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
You're sitting in amazing spot right now tbh, I hope you score big here!
Click to expand...
Thanks! How are the dynamics and ULL looking to you this morning? Still a shot at thundersnow? If that happens, it will pile up with 2" an hour rates, even on the roads. Temp right now is 33, much colder than progged yesterday.
 
Jon said:
Would be stupid not to considering the impacts and omega/DGZ crosshairs, after all that has a high predictability in WSW over WWA events. Lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Latest hrrr run supports this potential to the east. Previous run did not.
sn10_acc.us_ma.png
 
packfan98 said:
Thanks! How are the dynamics and ULL looking to you this morning? Still a shot at thundersnow? If that happens, it will pile up with 2" an hour rates, even on the roads. Temp right now is 33, much colder than progged yesterday.
Click to expand...

Yeah nothing has really changed overall since yesterday, very strong CVA & isentropic upglide underneath this ULL will be the primary forcing mechanisms for lift as it passes to our south, models are still apparently mishandling the in-situ CAD entrenched over most of central NC as surface temps are cooler than forecast in many spots over the north-central piedmont.
Screen Shot 2018-03-12 at 7.40.47 AM.png
 
Things look good this morning to a least see some snow here. Would be great to get those high rates and experience thundersnow here.
 
Congrats to those that see snow . I'm currently at 30,000 feet on way to the DC area where I will be on flurry watch later today . I tried telling them they were screwed because I was coming
51ed6acedf892b4f21c2059cd037c151.jpg


Sent from my SM-J327VPP using Tapatalk
 
Matthew East just posted this on Facebook.

Sleet has made it as far south as Lincolnton and Statesville as of 8:15am. Snow in Kernersville in Forsyth County.
 
Here's my 2nd and final crack at this storm. Snow/sleet may fall very quickly underneath this deformation band in parts of the north-central piedmont potentially leading to isolated power outages and slushy roads esp in/around the Triad.
March 12-13 2018 NC Forecast Snowmap 2.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top