Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

[Billypg70]

Feels like it's always about getting lucky when it comes to getting snow here.

Timing is the only Holy Grail of Winter Weather in the SE !
Timing is and always will be more crucial than any pattern.
I'll die on that hill...

 

[tennessee storm]

Timing is the only Holy Grail of Winter Weather in the SE !
Timing is and always will be more crucial than any pattern.
I'll die on that hill...

can remember good ole winters before climate change came...it wasnt hard get good snows then, just matter of how many vs will it snow now these days.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yikes

 

[Southern Track]

Yikes View attachment 139446

Yikes is right. Not trending in the right direction.

 

[Webberweather53]

I would really love to figure out why this tends to happen. It seems to me that we regularly default to a nina like Aleutian Ridge/Western trough H5 pattern no matter the enso state the last decade.

This year, it's already being discussed around the web that, although this is a strong nino, there's competing forcing that mutes the enso and has shown nina like forcing. So why is that? Is it the overall hot oceans? Northern pacific heat causing ridging there? Constant indian ocean heat? This warming of the oceans has me thinking that perhaps we may be living in a time period that has no analog past the last 10 years or so. And that what we're seeing is the new normal.

In case you missed this post from 11 days ago.

The same physical processes working to retract the Pacific Jet Stream & generate Western Canada blocking/+PNA in early January will also try to drop a mean trough over the western half of the CONUS as we approach mid-January.

Although the prototypical -PNA pattern will be significantly muted & smeared in this case for obvious ENSO-related reasons (i.e. I wouldn't expect a particularly persistent or intense SE US ridge here (if at all)).... ...this large-scale signal is definitely legit, esp. given the forthcoming collapse of the +IOD that'll help enhance the expression of Indian Ocean-related convective + downstream circulation anomalies.

This is the kind of pattern we need to see to restore the snow pack over the northern tier of the US going into our prime window for winter weather (late Jan-early Feb)


View attachment 138775

View attachment 138778

View attachment 138776

View attachment 138777

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I’d there’s one thing consistent, it’s the mountains getting a hit off this system

 

[Webberweather53]

The southern Appalachians are usually the most likely to cash relative to normal snowfall-wise in Nino winters. Hard to get the cold air here

 

[LukeBarrette]

I’d there’s one thing consistent, it’s the mountains getting a hit off this system View attachment 139447View attachment 139448View attachment 139449

System tried to cut at first which was pretty hilarious

 

[Myfrotho704_]

System tried to cut at first which was pretty hilarious

Getting picked up off waveguide by the deep trough in the western US

 

[tennessee storm]

I’d there’s one thing consistent, it’s the mountains getting a hit off this system View attachment 139447View attachment 139448View attachment 139449

good to be located in the higher elevtions in strong nino winters

 

[strongwxnc]

System tried to cut at first which was pretty hilarious

Yeah, the SLP also jumped all over the place once it entered the coast at HR 120.

 

[SnowNiner]

In case you missed this post from 11 days ago.

Right, for this year based on the IOD this was expected as your post mentioned, thanks. My question is more comprehensive; every year, some cycle competes with nino status and/or defaults to a GOA ridge/western trough. Why is that? The last 10 years, we don't seem to have stubborn eastern troughs, it's always out west for one reason or another. Just looking for an underlying issue that's causing what we're seeing every year. Constant high SST's in the northern pacific, Indian Ocean? Bigger question, probably not easy answers, but I think whatever it is it's what we're really fighting against each year.

 

[LukeBarrette]

No cold air on the Euro

 

[WSW]

I’d there’s one thing consistent, it’s the mountains getting a hit off this system View attachment 139447View attachment 139448View attachment 139449

Finally below 32 for a change.

 

[WSW]

View attachment 139459
No cold air on the Euro

Colder than previous run. Still some snow for parts of Virginia.

 

[WSW]

good to be located in the higher elevtions in strong nino winters

ALWAYS good to be at some elevation.

 

[Brent]

The Euro has been all over the place but this run of course finally bullseyes me ?

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Here's another nice graph, but now showing 3-week moving average "major" snowstorm count for the mid-Atlantic & NE US for moderate-strong El Niño & La Niña winters only.

We don't usually flip the script towards cold/snowy in Nino winters like this til about the last week of January.

I.e. the clock doesn't really start ticking to score big dogs in winters like this til about January 25th or so.

People need to take a chill pill.

View attachment 139444

That analysis is for the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. What about the southeast and deep south?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Heavy rain is coming

 

[Webberweather53]

That analysis is for the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. What about the southeast and deep south?

The Carolinas aren’t much different