Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

[WSW]

I like to give it bout February 17 …. Been my cutoff date chasing winter storms for my area … then bring on my spring severe weather ….

NO severe weather please.

 

[SNOWMANN]

So, what we gather from the data is this, if it doesn't snow in January, then February and March are off the table as well. Interesting that Webber is going against data that is 150 years old. Bet he is banking on us getting some snow that last week in January.

Around the 20th book it!!!

 

[SD]

I stop looking for snow around Thanksgiving and get the garden planted by Christmas

 

[Tarheel1]

The surface look one day farther would be encouraging:
View attachment 139352

Gets cold at hour 384

 

[LickWx]

I stop looking for snow around Thanksgiving and get the garden planted by Christmas

Hey man I hate to break it to you but if you are doing greens you really shouldn’t plant any later than October if you want to be picking collards in December! Smh. No wonder your yard always looks so dead

 

[Avalanche]

Hey man I hate to break it to you but if you are doing greens you really shouldn’t plant any later than October if you want to be picking collards in December! Smh. No wonder your yard always looks so dead

The creasy greens are already coming up. It’s usually late Jan before they do

 

[Webberweather53]

Pretty much what I've been talking about for weeks here.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Pretty much what I've been talking about for weeks here.

View attachment 139436

Feels like it's always about getting lucky when it comes to getting snow here.

 

[CaryWx]

So I guess the SSWE is just a pipe dream now?

 

[NCSNOW]

So I guess the SSWE is just a pipe dream now?

Yes and doesnt matter if mjo is in phase 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8, cod. For years its always an aurgument for whatever phase it is in verse whatever background state, not favorable. Seriously the needle moves so much,dont even know what to root for mjo wise.
It always boils down to timing , luck. Odds in our favor before the tullips come up this year.

 

[accu35]

I’m perfectly fine with the weather we have. Enjoy what you have now because it could be worse.

 

[SD]

So I guess the SSWE is just a pipe dream now?

It happenining but it doesn't look like the spv will split instead it'll just be bumped around/elongated/weakened. Better than it spinning like a top over the pole but really takes a little shine off my late Jan and Feb expectations. It'll be interesting to see if another warming takes shape around week 2/3 which for our location wouldn't be terrible for mid to late feb

 

[tennessee storm]

Feels like it's always about getting lucky when it comes to getting snow here.

Welcome to the south eastern part of the country lol

 

[LukeBarrette]

Feels like it's always about getting lucky when it comes to getting snow here.

Well that’s always the truth on this board

 

[Webberweather53]

Here's another nice graph, but now showing 3-week moving average "major" snowstorm count for the mid-Atlantic & NE US for moderate-strong El Niño & La Niña winters only.

We don't usually flip the script towards cold/snowy in Nino winters like this til about the last week of January.

I.e. the clock doesn't really start ticking to score big dogs in winters like this til about January 25th or so.

People need to take a chill pill.

 

[Twister]

Feels like it's always about getting lucky when it comes to getting snow here.

Well I mean it is the SE, What do you really expect?

Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk

 

[cyclogent]

Needing to be lucky is like a national thing lately, not just the SE. Vast majority of the country in the same boat.

 

[Webberweather53]

Needing to be lucky is like a national thing lately, not just the SE. Vast majority of the country in the same boat.

View attachment 139442
View attachment 139443

Looks like we're about to begin fixing that next week (as expected).

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Needing to be lucky is like a national thing lately, not just the SE. Vast majority of the country in the same boat.

View attachment 139442
View attachment 139443

Um…where is the place with 300 feet of snow cover?

 

[SnowNiner]

don’t think many want to hear this, but later week 1-week 2 of jan and maybe even a little further past that, it doesn’t look pretty pattern wise. Tropical forcing looks to slow significantly for a while in the Indian Ocean due to the weakening +IOD, which will give it more oomph as well. (basically the IO losing influence from the El Niño). The MJO slowing over the Indian Ocean for the next week and beyond is gonna favor a retracted pacific jet past next week and the semi-permanent Okhotsk low, which favors GOAK ridging/-PNA. Given the HLB/-NAO, the SE ridge might be put at bay at times, but it probably will show up at times. It’s honestly a pretty nina esque look

I would really love to figure out why this tends to happen. It seems to me that we regularly default to a nina like Aleutian Ridge/Western trough H5 pattern no matter the enso state the last decade.

This year, it's already being discussed around the web that, although this is a strong nino, there's competing forcing that mutes the enso and has shown nina like forcing. So why is that? Is it the overall hot oceans? Northern pacific heat causing ridging there? Constant indian ocean heat? This warming of the oceans has me thinking that perhaps we may be living in a time period that has no analog past the last 10 years or so. And that what we're seeing is the new normal.