Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

[Stevo24]

Yes

How far out would you say you can trust the MJO forecasting?

 

[Webberweather53]

How far out would you say you can trust the MJO forecasting?

The MJO circulation doesn't look fundamentally any different than it did a few weeks ago in general. There are a host of reasons why the RMM index will show nothing, when in reality something is still there.

 

[Itryatgolf]

The MJO circulation doesn't look fundamentally any different than it did a few weeks ago in general. There are a host of reasons why the RMM index will show nothing, when in reality something is still there.

Olr charts really are the way to go for the most accuracy

 

[NCSNOW]

Need to get rid of that low parked off Alaska coast. Never moves. disappears. Its the road block and culprit for torching North America. Its parked there because the super pac jet is what creates and sustains it.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

From the glass is half full club, while the time frame around Christmas isn't looking very promising at this time, the New Year looks primed to ring in a new, more wintry pattern with the MJO progged to a very favorable look and a higher than usual chance of a SSWE to shake things up right on cue for prime-climo.

 

[tennessee storm]

Need to get rid of that low parked off Alaska coast. Never moves. disappears. Its the road block and culprit for torching North America. Its parked there because the super pac jet is what creates and sustains it.

Save on heating bills. More money in our pocket way I look at it. It’s a win

 

[NCSNOW]

Latest from JB: 12/11/23

Pattern change coming between the 20th and 30th. The JMA has been in support of our opposite last year idea ( remember Christmas cold then no winter, this year opposite) strongest 500 dn over the east Jan Feb opposite last winter






9:44 AM · Dec 11, 2023
·
11.8K
Views

 

[Mitch West]

Latest from JB: 12/11/23

Pattern change coming between the 20th and 30th. The JMA has been in support of our opposite last year idea ( remember Christmas cold then no winter, this year opposite) strongest 500 dn over the east Jan Feb opposite last winter




9:44 AM · Dec 11, 2023
·
11.8K
Views

The JMA? Lawd..

 

[rburrel2]

Never a good sign when 22-day JMA maps are getting posted.

 

[CaryWx]

Latest from JB: 12/11/23

Pattern change coming between the 20th and 30th. The JMA has been in support of our opposite last year idea ( remember Christmas cold then no winter, this year opposite) strongest 500 dn over the east Jan Feb opposite last winter




9:44 AM · Dec 11, 2023
·
11.8K
Views

 

[griteater]

Dec 11: Thoughts on the pattern ahead...

 

[CaryWx]

Dec 11: Thoughts on the pattern ahead...

For the next 30 days anyway....

 

[tennessee storm]

For the next 30 days anyway....

At least that … yep

 

[Chazwin]

Dec 11: Thoughts on the pattern ahead...

This is my thinking too. Kinda like December 2015, there’s just too much mild Pacific air flooding into the continent the next couple weeks. As I’ve said before, I kinda expect modeled temps to start trending warmer for the end of this week and going forward. While I do see signs that the pattern starts to shuffle close to New Year’s, like January 2016 it’s going to take a couple weeks to get enough cold air to build back up. BTW… I’ve said it before while you always prefer to see the PNA positive, it’s far from the only important thing… it’s been positive for nearly two weeks and looks to stay that way through the two as well. Despite that the east and really most of the lower 48 is gonna torch

 

[Itryatgolf]

This is my thinking too. Kinda like December 2015, there’s just too much mild Pacific air flooding into the continent the next couple weeks. As I’ve said before, I kinda expect modeled temps to start trending warmer for the end of this week and going forward. While I do see signs that the pattern starts to shuffle close to New Year’s, like January 2016 it’s going to take a couple weeks to get enough cold air to build back up. BTW… I’ve said it before while you always prefer to see the PNA positive, it’s far from the only important thing… it’s been positive for nearly two weeks and looks to stay that way through the two as well. Despite that the east and really most of the lower 48 is gonna torch

I hope we have more opportunities than Jan and Feb 2016 here but time will tell

 

[Tarheel1]

Dec 11: Thoughts on the pattern ahead...

I told y’all this edition would be sad! ?

 

[Tarheel1]

This is how sad this pattern is! Brown Christmas incoming!

 

[Chazwin]

I hope we have more opportunities than Jan and Feb 2016 here but time will tell

We did have fairly good storm in late January 2016 and most of February was quite cold as well…with northern NC Piedmont getting a snowfall around Valentine’s Day

 

[tennessee storm]

I hope we have more opportunities than Jan and Feb 2016 here but time will tell

I take my chances like 2016

 

[NCSNOW]

This is my thinking too. Kinda like December 2015, there’yous just too much mild Pacific air flooding into the continent the next couple weeks. As I’ve said before, I kinda expect modeled temps to start trending warmer for the end of this week and going forward. While I do see signs that the pattern starts to shuffle close to New Year’s, like January 2016 it’s going to take a couple weeks to get enough cold air to build back up. BTW… I’ve said it before while you always prefer to see the PNA positive, it’s far from the only important thing… it’s been positive for nearly two weeks and looks to stay that way through the two as well. Despite that the east and really most of the lower 48 is gonna torch

You usually dont see a low parked in neutral on the coast of Alaska , weeks on end with a + pna. Thats why.