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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Stevo24 said:
Are you still expecting a flip to a pretty decent pattern beginning January?
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It's going to take a while for real cold air to seep back into the pattern, especially after this warm period zaps a lot of the snow cover to the north. Circulation pattern looks favorable but idk if the cold air will be there.
 
Webberweather53 said:
No wonder it's been so quiet in here the last several days.

If you were hoping to see some snow before January, I honestly can't think of a crappier pattern than this one.
Plenty cold enough for cold rain, but nowhere near cold enough to snow.

Not surprised at all though, this is pretty in line w/ what I was saying in here earlier this week & is par for the course for big El Niños.


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Just out of curiosity… how warm do you think the southeast might get? A month ago, I fully expected to see temperatures approaching December 2015… of course that hasn’t played out. Looking at the 500mb charts for later this week and leading up to Christmas, I would think that temperatures at the surface would be a a good bit warmer than what the modeled output is showing.
 
Chazwin said:
Just out of curiosity… how warm do you think the southeast might get? A month ago, I fully expected to see temperatures approaching December 2015… of course that hasn’t played out. Looking at the 500mb charts for later this week and leading up to Christmas, I would think that temperatures at the surface would be a a good bit warmer than what the modeled output is showing.
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It doesn't look as warm as 2015, which had a ridge rooted over the SE US. This year we have lot of systems cutting through the subtropics that'll keep our temps in check. Lots of upper 50s - maybe 60s type days, perhaps 70F or two thrown in there, but I wouldn't expect the 80s we had in 2015.
 
Itryatgolf said:
Looks like kicking can down the road will continue for foreseeable future.
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When I heard strong El Nino, I kept all the chips I had in my pocket. Have 0 invested expectation wise. Learned my lesson with these. You look for a window to score and take what you can get. Which Ill be doing fully expecting minimal return. They are the toughest to get cold in here and stay.
 
NCSNOW said:
When I heard strong El Nino, I kept all the chips I had in my pocket. Have 0 invested expectation wise. Learned my lesson with these. You look for a window to score and take what you can get. Which Ill be doing fully expecting minimal return. They are the toughest to get cold in here and stay.
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I agree. Hope for at least a few week opportunity for enough cold and snow at some point this winter
 
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