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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

You can sorta see that typical mid january warm up(el nino canon) in the way that the departures from normal start rising toward mid month on the weeklies and the GEFS extended. One thing I have noticed is the weeklies want to nearly tank the EPO while GEFS extended isnt showing that.

It's nothing to panic about. Mid January thaws are pretty typical. Right now, I think I wouldnt be shocked to see some -4 or -5 departures from Christmas to close to King day.
 
BullCityWx said:
You can sorta see that typical mid january warm up(el nino canon) in the way that the departures from normal start rising toward mid month on the weeklies and the GEFS extended.

It's nothing to panic about. Mid January thaws are pretty typical. Right now, I think I wouldnt be shocked to see some -4 or -5 departures from Christmas to close to King day.
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You are correct. Even that great 2009-2010 winter had that mild 2 week period in the middle of January before that great pattern set up late in the month and for most of February.
 
BullCityWx said:
You can sorta see that typical mid january warm up(el nino canon) in the way that the departures from normal start rising toward mid month on the weeklies and the GEFS extended. One thing I have noticed is the weeklies want to nearly tank the EPO while GEFS extended isnt showing that.

It's nothing to panic about. Mid January thaws are pretty typical. Right now, I think I wouldnt be shocked to see some -4 or -5 departures from Christmas to close to King day.
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Of course, if this SSW breaks in our favor, this is all very subject to change.
 
feel like i've seen this trend a lot the last few years- negatively tilted bomb in the 5-7 day range adds a couple of degrees of positive tilt per run until the 'bomb' option is off the table. it still creates impactful weather but i think there's been a notable absence of high impact low pressure systems last few winters. even with the mega-front before christmas last year- that looked like it could be a historic midwest/great lakes system until it... wasn't. not saying it wasn't impactful, but the potential was very high. same deal here- current guidance shows substantial severe risk- but guidance from a few days ago showed something much fiercer. unclear to me whether this is bona fide or if it's always like this but sure feels like every system lately has the edges sanded off as we approach t-0
 

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I'm having a real hard time seeing anything significant wintry weather outside the mountains prior to January. Even though we may have a +PNA of some sort initially and deep-layer temperatures may be below average, there honestly isn't a ton of true cold air around that's needed to deliver a big winter storm for the board, at least through basically the rest of this month. A few models have tried to hint at a glancing blow of colder air before the +EAMT induced jet extension takes over, but I don't really buy it yet (when it comes to snow).

We're going to need the Alaskan Vortex to begin backing away towards the Aleutians before some real cold air starts getting dumped into the CONUS.

Heading into the Holidays, I'm much more concerned about severe weather, especially for the Deep South & Gulf Coast states.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm having a real hard time seeing anything significant wintry weather outside the mountains prior to January. Even though we may have a +PNA of some sort initially and deep-layer temperatures may be below average, there honestly isn't a ton of true cold air around that's needed to deliver a big winter storm for the board, at least through basically the rest of this month. A few models have tried to hint at a glancing blow of colder air before the +EAMT induced jet extension takes over, but I don't really buy it yet (when it comes to snow).

We're going to need the Alaskan Vortex to begin backing away towards the Aleutians before some real cold air starts getting dumped into the CONUS.

Heading into the Holidays, I'm much more concerned about severe weather, especially for the Deep South & Gulf Coast states.
Click to expand...
Do you see any “true” cold air coming in January and February?
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm having a real hard time seeing anything significant wintry weather outside the mountains prior to January. Even though we may have a +PNA of some sort initially and deep-layer temperatures may be below average, there honestly isn't a ton of true cold air around that's needed to deliver a big winter storm for the board, at least through basically the rest of this month. A few models have tried to hint at a glancing blow of colder air before the +EAMT induced jet extension takes over, but I don't really buy it yet (when it comes to snow).

We're going to need the Alaskan Vortex to begin backing away towards the Aleutians before some real cold air starts getting dumped into the CONUS.

Heading into the Holidays, I'm much more concerned about severe weather, especially for the Deep South & Gulf Coast states.
Click to expand...
It can also be pointed out that the MJO doesn’t really favor anything in the next couple weeks either. It’s running through phases 4-7. It is going low amp and possibly into the COD which should prevent an all out extended torch. The good news is that it’s hitting phase 8 late in the month when many of us can score in a marginal set up.
 
GEFS run had one member with 3-4 ft of snow from one storm. I had a hard time not posting it. Forgive me

5C5RSim.png
 
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