Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

[Wild Weather Monger]

I know it's been mentioned quite a bit, but it will be until at least end of December before things change and that depends on progression of the mjo and we need a pacific reset somehow some way. December's really are notorious as being warm in niños. Alot of opinions at American Weather on how things evolve.

I'm not so sure the SE averages much if at all above normal for December when all is said and done. We'll go into the last third of the month slightly above after transient cool and warm periods and depending on how fast and intense the end-of-month cooldown begins will tell the tale.

 

[griteater]

Dec 5 - My thoughts on the upcoming weather pattern. Decided to go 10-30 day instead of 15-35 as I want to see the extended periods at least get into the regular ensemble range

 

[WSW]

My thoughts on the upcoming weather pattern. Decided to go 10-30 day instead of 15-35 as I want to see the extended periods at least get into the regular ensemble range

I love that you're doing this.

 

[CaryWx]

My thoughts on the upcoming weather pattern. Decided to go 10-30 day instead of 15-35 as I want to see the extended periods at least get into the regular ensemble range

Looks like we've regressed a bit or the typical "delayed" look.

 

[WSW]

Looks like we've regressed a bit or the typical "delayed" look.

Delayed but not denied?

 

[Oconeexman]

My thoughts on the upcoming weather pattern. Decided to go 10-30 day instead of 15-35 as I want to see the extended periods at least get into the regular ensemble range

Thanks Grit...love the meters!

 

[tractor girl]

I love grits, and Grit's forecast graphics.

 

[WSW]

I love grits, and Grit's forecast graphics.

I love his forecast, but not the grits part.

 

[J.C.]

I'm not so sure the SE averages much if at all above normal for December when all is said and done. We'll go into the last third of the month slightly above after transient cool and warm periods and depending on how fast and intense the end-of-month cooldown begins will tell the tale.

It would take a monumental cold period to negate this week for the total of December. Through four days KATL is +10.

 

[WSW]

It would take a monumental cold period to negate this week for the total of December. Through four days KATL is +10.

Yep. IAD is +6.9

 

[jeremyt]

Oh the optimism now. I thought winter was going to be a dumpster fire, straight heat and no possibility of winter weather because December has been normal!

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

It would take a monumental cold period to negate this week for the total of December. Through four days KATL is +10.

Not really. The month is only 5 days old.

I do agree that December winds up a bit above normal, but torch? I think not.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

I think I would temper expectations with regards to timing of a pattern change. In years past it seemingly has always been modeled 1-2 weeks too fast. I think the first 10 days of January are probably a good time to expect a shift

 

[griteater]

Euro Seasonal update for Jan-Feb. Impressive if it can verify

 

[weatherfide]

January would probably deliver for even my area with that look. I hope it holds.

 

[griteater]

Yall remember when we talked about that big high in Siberia? Cold high pressure diving into SE Asia is usually a good launching point for processes that lead to cold east of the Rockies (Today's Euro Weeklies here)

 

[griteater]

Euro Weeklies at 500mb from Dec 14-21 to Jan 13-20

 

[Itryatgolf]

Yall remember when we talked about that big high in Siberia? Cold high pressure diving into SE Asia is usually a good launching point for processes that lead to cold east of the Rockies (Today's Euro Weeklies here)

View attachment 138342

I think we would want to see it within 10-15 days out to feel more comfortable with it happening or moving up in time. I am hoping your correct.

 

[BullCityWx]

Best one of these I’ve seen in a minute

 

[Stevo24]

View attachment 138350Best one of these I’ve seen in a minute

Can someone explain what this means iv never understood this map.