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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Itryatgolf said:
You always want the Pacific on your side instead of just the Atlantic for colder weather imo
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While I do agree with this for the most part, it’s definitely possible for a great Atlantic to overcome a meh Pacific when “ homegrown” cold air is building up. The two biggest snowstorms that I have personally experienced here in the Charlotte area occurred with a negative PNA… January 1988 and February 2004
 
Chazwin said:
While I do agree with this for the most part, it’s definitely possible for a great Atlantic to overcome a meh Pacific when “ homegrown” cold air is building up. The two biggest snowstorms that I have personally experienced here in the Charlotte area occurred with a negative PNA… January 1988 and February 2004
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January 1988 was big southern slider. That was a great setup we had
 
Itryatgolf said:
ao must have been negative
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Nope. It was a +AO, +NAO, and a -PNA. The only things from a cold standpoint that was favorable was a strong PV push southward to meet up with a very moist STJ that was transferring moisture from all the way back towards Hawaii. The MJO was in a favorable phase as well. I’ve said before everything about that winter was horrible from a teleconnections standpoint and how mild overall it was. We just had incredibly lucky timing at peak early January climo to produce a storm that is still unforgettable for those of us that experienced it.
 
Chazwin said:
While I do agree with this for the most part, it’s definitely possible for a great Atlantic to overcome a meh Pacific when “ homegrown” cold air is building up. The two biggest snowstorms that I have personally experienced here in the Charlotte area occurred with a negative PNA… January 1988 and February 2004
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Chazwin said:
Nope. It was a +AO, +NAO, and a -PNA. The only things from a cold standpoint that was favorable was a strong PV push southward to meet up with a very moist STJ that was transferring moisture from all the way back towards Hawaii. The MJO was in a favorable phase as well. I’ve said before everything about that winter was horrible from a teleconnections standpoint and how mild overall it was. We just had incredibly lucky timing at peak early January climo to produce a storm that is still unforgettable for those of us that experienced it.
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Look at 87-88 in that chart0b22105a51132cf4ad17bcc734d5ce08.jpg
 
Last 10 runs (1 run / day) of Euro Weeklies for Dec 26 to Jan 2...

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griteater said:
My thoughts on the upcoming weather pattern and its potential for winter weather in the Southeast and Southern Mid-Atlantic

1UcZWdM.png
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This is probably one of the best put together graphics I've ever seen. Incredibly easy to read & understand. I hope you do updates on this over the coming weeks!
 
Mitch West said:
This is probably one of the best put together graphics I've ever seen. Incredibly easy to read & understand. I hope you do updates on this over the coming weeks!
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Appreciate that feedback Mitch. Thank you. I try to have a little fun along the way with this crap. I would like to continue
 
There must be some severely negative AO and NAO GEFS extended members. The spread goes from +3 all the way to -6.5 on the AO and +2 down to nearly -5 on the NAO. This would be valid for the end of December/Early January. The EPO looks similar to the numbers of the NAO.

You end up with those indicies in that shape with an active STJ, you are cooking with gas.
 
griteater said:
My thoughts on the upcoming weather pattern and its potential for winter weather in the Southeast and Southern Mid-Atlantic

1UcZWdM.png
Click to expand...

Nicely done grit, appreciate seeing your thoughts. Curious though with the pacific on our side end of the month (potentially, we'll see), -nao, ao, enhanced stj, and colder than average, what it would take to get very good and fantastic ratings? Colder?

And I'd also ask you give rain cold the template so he could do a wamby parody for the outlook with appropriate cynicism. ?
 
SnowNiner said:
Nicely done grit, appreciate seeing your thoughts. Curious though with the pacific on our side end of the month (potentially, we'll see), -nao, ao, enhanced stj, and colder than average, what it would take to get very good and fantastic ratings? Colder?

And I'd also ask you give rain cold the template so he could do a wamby parody for the outlook with appropriate cynicism. ?
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Thank you Niner. Just a little gun shy and don't want to throw a pick 6 on the opening play of the game...but yeah, I'd say the meter will go up if the look improves and confidence goes up. I'd like this end of year look better if it were a month later (better for Nino and SE climatology)

Planning to do these every 5 days, only looking at the Day 15 to 35 timeframe. So, the first 5 day period will roll off each time, etc...i.e. this is a longer range, broad-based outlook. That's the plan anyway. Of course, "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." - Mike Tyson
 
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