Ron Burgundy
Member
I don’t usually remember other members’ posts, but I remember Brick’s that night. It reminded me of when Clark Griswald found out Wally World was closed.
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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
NoSnowATL
Member
Lets Freakin GO!!
I sure hope the CFS is onto something. The period from around December 10th through January is my favorite time of year for winter weather. A much higher chance of prolonged cold with low sun angle and long nights to keep potential snow around longer than later in the winter. Not to mention the always hoped-for chances of a White Christmas.
Brent
Member
I'm still liking mid month here... And one of our mets predicted the first real snowfall then so I'm very curious to see if it pans out ? I'm not at all holding my breath but there has been a signal
NCSNOW
Member
The 0z CFS looks stellar once again mid month up until a couple days before Christmas. Then proceeds to wet the bed from there on out, horrific looking. Yesterdays runs where Golden. See if it changes its tune back latter today. As long as Grit and Fro are feeling optimistic Last week Dec into Jan for a favorable pattern, that is 100x more dependable than looking into the CFS magic 8 ball for clues. Plus the weeklies are still in our corner as well.
Tarheelwx
Member
I seem to remember that the level of optimism, weeklies, and other long range models this time last year had everyone pushing their chips to the middle of the table. Then over a period of 1-2 weeks, the wheels fell off and everything started getting pushed back and we ended up with a dumpster fire. Here’s to hoping Tuesday night’s CFS is correct and last night’s isn’t the beginning of a bad trend.
TW
TW
Honestly last December, the pattern really did develop the way the models were showing. It just simply didn’t deliver because everything ended up getting suppressed which is always a danger with cold periods in La Niña. Personally, I’m still not believing that the southeast scores outside of the mountains during December. The pattern looks to me like it’s more of cold snap followed by mild weather and repeat. Given that some people, including myself, were thinking that December was going to be an absolute blowtorch like 2015, that is looking like less and less of possibility everyday. Either way, I still think it will be just after the New Year, maybe just before if we’re lucky before pattern that could produce develops.
griteater
Member
Expanding high pressure in Siberia is usually a good first step toward getting it colder in our world in a few weeks
I also like seeing the low pressures to the east of Greenland allowing the high pressures to set up just to the west and keeping the -NAO west based.Expanding high pressure in Siberia is usually a good first step toward getting it colder in our world in a few weeks
Anyone here with knowledge of the QBO? Is this easterly weakening just a blip?
East qbo favors colder and more strat activityAnyone here with knowledge of the QBO? Is this easterly weakening just a blip?
Itryatgolf
Member
Meh, to my limited k owledge self, I e seen the cold build over there and just stay put all winter! It loves to just stay and fester on that side of the world and for whatever reason, is hard to get over hereExpanding high pressure in Siberia is usually a good first step toward getting it colder in our world in a few weeks
griteater
Member
The key zone is 30mb down to 50mb. The QBO is in as good a position as it could possibly be. If we have troubles this winter, it won't be because of the QBO. The positive values below 50mb are from the previous positive QBO phase. That is, each phase decends thru the stratosphere (i.e. over time it works itself from higher up in the stratosphere, say 10mb, to lower, say 50mb). The positives starting to show up near 10mb is the next positive phase of the QBO that will descend as well...but it's a fairly slow process
IMO it definitely doesn’t hurt to see that cold buildup over there, but I also never like to depend on it to get cold airmasses here. The only way that we see any of it is with a strong cross polar flow that has been few and far between in recent years. Even if we get one, we run the risk of suppression like last year around Christmas. I much rather put my hopes on snowpack and cold building up over NW Canada and the Alaskan north slope and then get a decent western ridge to push it southeast
griteater
Member
Yeah the Siberian high tends to be part of the process that adds amplification into the pattern as momentum kicks off E Asia...and then in this case is supplemented with El Nino and the MJO working from the W Pac into the E Pac....and that amplification builds those ridges that are needed into AK and W Canada
Itryatgolf
Member
You always want the Pacific on your side instead of just the Atlantic for colder weather imo
Thanks so much.
The QBO isn't something I've paid enough attention to in the past. I've been intrigued with it this season as well as the NAO given the rumblings about one or more SSW events in this el nino year.