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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

We had 3 winters in a row over a foot of snow in the late 80s wow and one year has been a big analog for this winter here

I mean 2009-2011 did it here but still to see that again would be quite something ?
 
Here's why I'm really intrigued by this bout of -NAO we're seeing the next few weeks:

Does early winter NAO behavior tell us anything about its behavior later in winter (Jan-Mar) during El Niños?! ?

The data says yes! ?


The relationship is positive (they reinforce each other) & it's significant-very significant.

This means that a more negative/or less positive NAO in December begets an even more negative NAO in January-March when an El Niño is present. This is objectively a very good early sign for cold/snowy winter in the SE US & mid-Atlantic states.


Below is the December vs January-March averaged 500mb correlation (R) for El Niño winters only, since 1855 in NOAA's 20th Century Reanalysis Version 3 (NOAA 20CRv3). I applied a 30-year sliding base period that lagged by 20 years to . Notice that areas contoured and stippled in white are where the correlations are significant at the 99% level. This basically says that there's a < 1 % probability that the correlation between December NAO & January-March NAO in El Niño winters occurs simply by chance.


Dec_JFM_Nhem_500mb_El_Nino_Correlation_crop.png


Dec-Mar 500mb correlation w/ the -NAO (for a sanity check & comparison purposes).
Dec_JFM_Nhem_500mb_NAO_Correlation_crop.png





I've also looked at MSLP data in NOAA 20CRv3, because it's directly assimilated into the reanalysis model & thus tends to be the most reliable variable to look at. Not surprisingly, it supports the 500mb data w/ very significant correlation between Greenland & Scandinavia. This corresponds pretty well w/ the SLP loadings for the -NAO too (like the 500mb data).


Dec_JFM_Nhem_SLP_El_Nino_Correlation_crop.png




Dec-Mar MSLP correlation w/ the -NAO.

Dec_JFM_Nhem_SLP_NAO_Correlation_crop.png
 
Well my first chance at some flakes at least maybe

Saturday Night
Rain in the evening, then rain and snow likely after midnight. Cold with lows in the lower 30s. Northeast winds around 5 mph, becoming northwest 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
 
Itryatgolf said:
View attachment 138144
I think this is just preliminary but what are yalls thoughts so far?
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It’s showing warming high in the stratosphere which is a good thing, but it will take multiple rounds of warming in order to hit the Strat PV really hard. Can see here on the chart the predicted weakening of the zonal winds at 10mb at 60 deg N latitude. This would have to weaken much further to 0 in order for it to be considered an official SSW. But again, attacks on the SPV and weakening are a good thing

0F44CBF6-5804-4BF5-9880-513516F141A2.png
 
griteater said:
It’s showing warming high in the stratosphere which is a good thing, but it will take multiple rounds of warming in order to hit the Strat PV really hard. Can see here on the chart the predicted weakening of the zonal winds at 10mb at 60 deg N latitude. This would have to weaken much further to 0 in order for it to be considered an official SSW. But again, attacks on the SPV and weakening are a good thing

View attachment 138146
Click to expand...
So I guess the ensembles and op runs that have been showing warming is what happens throughout late fall /winter that leads to more of a STRETCHING of the pv that if the warming continues, it could lead to a SSW event later? Want to make sure I understand that correctly lol.
 
CaryWx said:
Maybe not that soon but a Happy New Year could be in the works
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Imo its entirely possible that the MA up to the NYC metro or even inland areas like Charleston to Pittsburgh through Albany could see a good storm before the solstice, even the mountains of Virginia and NC could cash in.

Us in the south outside of the mountains will probably wait until New Years like you said.
 
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Itryatgolf said:
So I guess the ensembles and op runs that have been showing warming is what happens throughout late fall /winter that leads to more of a STRETCHING of the pv that if the warming continues, it could lead to a SSW event later? Want to make sure I understand that correctly lol.
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Correct. It’s akin to seeing a strong hurricane that is wound up tight weaken. Things like dry air entrainment, wind shear, and interactions with land masses weaken hurricanes. A strong hurricane will encounter those along its path and weaken, but in between those encounters, it will recover some or all of its strength back. In comparison, periodic heat flux coming from the troposphere and up into the stratosphere are the obstacles for the Strat PV trying to gain and maintain its strength.,,and the stronger and more prolonged the heat flux is, the weaker the Strat PV will be
 
LukeBarrette said:
GFS is definitely picking up on a wave around the Dec 5th timeframe. Last 3 runs it shows a shortwave moving towards the east coast from the center of the country.
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The only thing I’m having a hard time with the gfs lately is the 2m temps. The 6z this morning was about 10 or so degrees off with what verified. Then you have the CMC which will probably verify too cold. I don’t have much faith in any of them at a day much less 10.
 
jeremyt said:
The only thing I’m having a hard time with the gfs lately is the 2m temps. The 6z this morning was about 10 or so degrees off with what verified. Then you have the CMC which will probably verify too cold. I don’t have much faith in any of them at a day much less 10.
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The CMC has been horrible in the 8-10 day range lately. For example 9 days before Thanksgiving it had highs in the 30s to low 40s for most of the Carolinas outside of the mountains. Then last weekend it was saying this cold shot that we have coming up was going to be a full on Arctic blast with most of the Midwest having their first sub-zero lows of the season and the much of the Piedmont dropping to the low to mid teens.
 
Chazwin said:
The CMC has been horrible in the 8-10 day range lately. For example 9 days before Thanksgiving it had highs in the 30s to low 40s for most of the Carolinas outside of the mountains. Then last weekend it was saying this cold shot that we have coming up was going to be a full on Arctic blast with most of the Midwest having their first sub-zero lows of the season and the much of the Piedmont dropping to the low to mid teens.
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Agreed, but the GFS seems too warm lately, based off runs and what’s happened or local forecast temps. I don’t have the euro so I can only see what people post here.
 
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