W
WSW
Guest
North Alabama would be a better choice me thinks.
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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Even if we don't see much out of this in the short-term, seeing this pattern crop up on a consistent basis in December during an El Niño has historically been a harbinger of a cold/snowy winter.
What do you mean by that. That it usually repeats itself before winter is over?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Most of the El Nino winters that produced a mean -NAO in December eventually turned into big, blockbuster winters for this board.
Some examples:
1939-40, 1963-64, 1968-69, 1976-77, 1977-78, 1987-88, 2002-03, & 2009-10
NOAA 20CRv3 NAO Index (1836-2015)
Yikes! Those are some epic analog years in there.
I still remember the 63 New Year's Eve snow in New Orleans lol.
tennessee storm
Member
Winter s. In the mid 70s we’re totally epic around here …. Big snows
Those are some seriously big dog winters. 1939-40 sticks out speaking for Atlanta because January 1940 was the month/year they saw their biggest snowfall on record (just over 10 inches). To this day I don’t think Atlanta has surpassed that number. (Airport really got screwed during Superstorm ‘93 with 4 inches) Which is kinda pathetic when you compare that to other southern cities in the decades since that have had higher snowfall totals from a single storm. Hell, I think Macon got around 17-18 inches from the Feb ‘73 winter storm.?
tennessee storm
Member
If I’m not mistaken, most those winters Webber mentions had a December with average to above average temps … so warm December is t really a bad thing . Fact seems like me cold December never leads to a cold n snowy January and February
Itryatgolf
Member
Never say never. It's happened before. The 70s winters are legendary for a reason because they were epic and probably won't be repeated for a long time
But it has been a long time and most of us are due.
tennessee storm
Member
Well to be honest with you , it’s been a long time lol
Um, trust me. It has been a long time. We're due!
Really nothing crazy want showing up on modeling. Overall 0-2F AN. Could change, but damn, seeing this sort of longwave pattern already showing up, it’s impressive 
tennessee storm
Member
Nothing wrong with an average December. Things start get into motion later December
Id imagine with the initial ridge trying to flare under the -NAO in response to heights dropping out west, and the active STJ, we’re gonna get a Dixie set up soon with a souped up southern stream wave and a nice boundary somewhere separating polar pacific air, and air straight out the gulf
Itryatgolf
Member
This looks decent 
Big in the Carolinas too..
Several big storms yearly back then,
Also true Miller A's.
When it snowed in Dallas it meant ATL was going to get snow also,
Areas N of these metros were Golden.
The Glory years...
Through 88 maybe 93???
Itryatgolf
Member
Forums would be incredibly bogged down all day and night. Lots of zanex needed ?
I notice the GEFS continues to shorten the early December mild period. Roughly a 5-day period, the 2nd to the 7th at or above normal.