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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Chazwin said:
It’s not really that simple. The MJO has been in low amp for a while now and it looks like it’s headed for COD in about 10 days. Also remember that the MJO was in great phases last winter from about mid January on and things still stayed very mild.
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When it got into higher amp 3, we got that three day ice/sleet storm end of January early February here
 
Our met is saying warm through the 10th then "all bets are off" but like I said too I'm seeing some very bullish winter forecasts here. People are predicting more snow in December than we got in total last winter ?
 
I'm very intrigued by the upcoming period of -NAO that's showing up in early December.

El Niño winters that produce -NAOs (or even neutral ones for that matter) in December often end up being rather cold and snowy over the eastern US.

Really feels like a lot of my initial thoughts & expectations for this winter (esp early on) have been turned on its head to some degree, in a very positive way
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm very intrigued by the upcoming period of -NAO that's showing up in early December.

El Niño winters that produce -NAOs (or even neutral ones for that matter) in December often end up being rather cold and snowy over the eastern US.

Really feels like a lot of my initial thoughts & expectations for this winter (esp early on) have been turned on its head to some degree, in a very positive way
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I remember you put up a chart a couple weeks ago that showed that strong El Niños often have a colder than average period over the first days of December. Then things as expected go mild after that. I wonder if we might be able to cash in on something as the pattern breaks down… something that we often see.
 
Brent said:
I mean just because its warm doesn't mean there won't be cold days shrugs and who knows there's gonna be a snowstorm not far away this weekend when it's been pretty warm this month
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Yeah. I would say that February 2014 is a great example of that for my area. I finished that month 2 degrees above average, but had a total of 11 inches of snow from 2 storms in 3 days during a week long cold spell in the middle of the month. The rest of the month was well above average. I still think that when December is said and done a lot of us will be 2-3 degrees above average just based on how strong El Niños tend to play out. However I can’t overlook the indicators that are showing in the teleconnections for the 1st week of the month…-NAO, -AO, slightly +PNA, and low amp MJO moving through phases 2-3 and possibly in the COD. I said the other day that if it were the end of December going into New Year’s, I would think very likely that the southeast would have some winter storm chances… it would be harder here early in the month, but certainly not impossible.
 
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