• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Brent

Member
Joined
Dec 9, 2016
Messages
10,830
Reaction score
20,812
Location
Tulsa Oklahoma
View attachment 138066View attachment 138067
I'm not the smartest guy in the world, but with a ridge over Alaska, nw Canada and somewhat of a -nao, why aren't the models colder? Is it just too early in the season?😒

I mean I guess it could be too early but I just said it in the other thread too the models notoriously struggle with arctic air. I don't think anything is etched in stone yet. Didn't Halloween trend colder in the final days.. it definitely did here
 

Wild Weather Monger

Between, Ga. Halfway "between" Atlanta&Athens
Supporter
Joined
Jan 14, 2021
Messages
979
Reaction score
2,636
Location
Between, Ga.
GEFS extended at the start of astronomical winter. Not too shabby. It would seem rumors of a warm December are on thin ice.
gfs-ens_z500a_namer_131.png
 

Rain Cold

Shields Up
Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
15,401
Reaction score
41,853
Location
Raleigh, NC
View attachment 138066View attachment 138067
I'm not the smartest guy in the world, but with a ridge over Alaska, nw Canada and somewhat of a -nao, why aren't the models colder? Is it just too early in the season?😒
-PNA. Idk what the index reads, numerically speaking, but a trough back in the SW pumps a ridge off the SE setting up a...dun dun dun...winter battle zone.
 

SnowNiner

Member
Joined
Nov 14, 2017
Messages
1,426
Reaction score
2,774
Location
Troutman, NC
View attachment 138066View attachment 138067
I'm not the smartest guy in the world, but with a ridge over Alaska, nw Canada and somewhat of a -nao, why aren't the models colder? Is it just too early in the season?😒

It's a generally good look, but to me, the orientation of the western ridge is tilted in such a way that it's wanting to tuck the colder flow more into the west/midwest. SE ridge is muted but there so yeah. Western trough wants to trough.
 

SD

Staff member
Administrator
Moderator
Joined
Jan 4, 2017
Messages
27,483
Reaction score
70,391
Location
Chalybeate Springs, NC
View attachment 138066View attachment 138067
I'm not the smartest guy in the world, but with a ridge over Alaska, nw Canada and somewhat of a -nao, why aren't the models colder? Is it just too early in the season?😒
Flow across the US gets accelerated and is zonal with the energy dropping into the 4 corners. This slows fronts and keeps the core of the cold to our N and W. Eventually the cold will bleed in but this isn't a dump the arctic into the SE look. That said if we can repeat this look later on in the cold season the snow and ice printer would go brrr, this time of year though it's 48-52 type days and 25-30 nights with occasional cold rain for our parts of the region
 

Rain Cold

Shields Up
Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
15,401
Reaction score
41,853
Location
Raleigh, NC
Flow across the US gets accelerated and is zonal with the energy dropping into the 4 corners. This slows fronts and keeps the core of the cold to our N and W. Eventually the cold will bleed in but this isn't a dump the arctic into the SE look. That said if we can repeat this look later on in the cold season the snow and ice printer would go brrr
Throw some blocking into SE Canada through Greenland and we'll have some late nights for sure.
 

Chazwin

Member
Joined
Dec 12, 2018
Messages
3,415
Reaction score
8,109
Location
Wingate, NC
GEFS extended at the start of astronomical winter. Not too shabby. It would seem rumors of a warm December are on thin ice.
gfs-ens_z500a_namer_131.png
It certainly wouldn’t be out of the question to have a quick cold shot or two even during a mild months. I just still think, like most do that December will end up mainly mild. I still hold to what I said the other week that I think there’s a better chance that we have a December 2015 repeat than having snow outside the mountains during the month.
 

NCSNOW

Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2016
Messages
8,388
Reaction score
15,746
Daily CFS observation which now gets out to December 23rd. It has done a 180 from past couple of runs. Below 850's for our area through December, especially week 2 and week 3. I need to start monitoring the weeklies, see which way they are pointing the needle. It's possible we get a better looking Atlantic and some good blocking help in December. Jury is out, but it will be a nice unexpected surprise for all if this develops and becomes the norm December.
 
Top