Brick Tamland
Member
I mean outside the mountains
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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Itryatgolf
Member
I'm not the smartest guy in the world, but with a ridge over Alaska, nw Canada and somewhat of a -nao, why aren't the models colder? Is it just too early in the season??
Brent
Member
I mean I guess it could be too early but I just said it in the other thread too the models notoriously struggle with arctic air. I don't think anything is etched in stone yet. Didn't Halloween trend colder in the final days.. it definitely did here
GEFS extended at the start of astronomical winter. Not too shabby. It would seem rumors of a warm December are on thin ice.
-PNA. Idk what the index reads, numerically speaking, but a trough back in the SW pumps a ridge off the SE setting up a...dun dun dun...winter battle zone.
SnowNiner
Member
It's a generally good look, but to me, the orientation of the western ridge is tilted in such a way that it's wanting to tuck the colder flow more into the west/midwest. SE ridge is muted but there so yeah. Western trough wants to trough.
Flow across the US gets accelerated and is zonal with the energy dropping into the 4 corners. This slows fronts and keeps the core of the cold to our N and W. Eventually the cold will bleed in but this isn't a dump the arctic into the SE look. That said if we can repeat this look later on in the cold season the snow and ice printer would go brrr, this time of year though it's 48-52 type days and 25-30 nights with occasional cold rain for our parts of the region
It certainly wouldn’t be out of the question to have a quick cold shot or two even during a mild months. I just still think, like most do that December will end up mainly mild. I still hold to what I said the other week that I think there’s a better chance that we have a December 2015 repeat than having snow outside the mountains during the month.GEFS extended at the start of astronomical winter. Not too shabby. It would seem rumors of a warm December are on thin ice.
NCSNOW
Member
Yea the CFS for what its worth on last nights run, keeps us zonal with trough out west late week 1 through early week 3.
NCSNOW
Member
However, you just never know!
W
WSW
Guest
Zonal bad. No zonal for you.
Honestly this is probably the thing that would have the biggest chance of making the warm December outlooks bust.
Itryatgolf
Member
If he is even remotely close in being correct I suppose. People on Twitter are constantly changing their opinions daily and it's difficult to believe them alot
NoSnowATL
Member
tractor girl
Member
Shift that NNW about 400 miles and it's a little more realistic
NCSNOW
Member
Daily CFS observation which now gets out to December 23rd. It has done a 180 from past couple of runs. Below 850's for our area through December, especially week 2 and week 3. I need to start monitoring the weeklies, see which way they are pointing the needle. It's possible we get a better looking Atlantic and some good blocking help in December. Jury is out, but it will be a nice unexpected surprise for all if this develops and becomes the norm December.
Itryatgolf
Member
The euro weeklies used to run every Monday and Thursday but now every day I believe
griteater
Member
Paul Roundy's tropical forcing tool (base tropical forcing + MJO) is matching up nicely with the Euro Weeklies. Mild with E Pac trough in 2nd and 3rd week of Dec before a transition to +PNA pattern late Dec into early Jan
Both loops here in 3 day increments from Dec 5 to Dec 29.
Both loops here in 3 day increments from Dec 5 to Dec 29.
or...ignore all the totals 3" or less and cut the rest of the totals in half and it would seem more likely