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Wintry Winter 26-27

I'm interested to see the next QBO reading. If it takes a significant drop, that would be good.

Yeah Dave Tolleris with WxRisk said it’s only went above 14 a handful of times in the last 100 years or whatever so odds are it’ll come down some which will be interesting
It will very likely still be +5 or higher at 30 mb through Feb and could even still be ~+10 at 30 mb (the level which is most followed) even in Feb based on my own analysis of past patterns and what’s going on now. My best guess right now for it to first go <0 is ~May. This is why I feel that 2015-6, 1982-3, and 1957-8 are easily the best analogs for super Ninos.

History:
IMG_2888.jpeg

Recent pointing to +5+ at 30 mb through Feb per historical patterns:
IMG_2888.jpeg
 
It will very likely still be +5 or higher at 30 mb through Feb and could even still be ~+10 at 30 mb (the level which is most followed) even in Feb based on my own analysis of past patterns and what’s going on now. My best guess right now for it to first go <0 is ~May. This is why I feel that 2015-6, 1982-3, and 1957-8 are easily the best analogs for super Ninos.

History:
View attachment 199094

Recent pointing to +5+ at 30 mb through Feb per historical patterns:
View attachment 199095
Larry, if we get cold in late February or march, it will mainly benefit north of most of us, especially with increasing sunlight. Higher elevations may do okay. Hopeful we can get shifts or changes that would help us more than people think currently
 
The one thing I’d be interested to see is how this stratospheric warming event impacts December.

Certainly on the board that we get something less torch-y and more like 1997 than the canonical mega torch super Nino composite

All it would take is for one of these in-situ -NAO blocks in the extended to get anchored to the stratosphere and it would be hard to get rid of it
 
The one thing I’d be interested to see is how this stratospheric warming event impacts December.

Certainly on the board that we get something less torch-y and more like 1997 than the canonical mega torch super Nino composite

All it would take is for one of these in-situ -NAO blocks in the extended to get anchored to the stratosphere and it would be hard to get rid of it
Still say December wind up above average temp wise . January average . February will be below average …. Sticking to my winter prediction. The ssw events don’t always work in our favor be honest
 
The one thing I’d be interested to see is how this stratospheric warming event impacts December.

Certainly on the board that we get something less torch-y and more like 1997 than the canonical mega torch super Nino composite

All it would take is for one of these in-situ -NAO blocks in the extended to get anchored to the stratosphere and it would be hard to get rid of it
IMG_2486.gif
IMG_2487.png👀
 
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