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Wintry Winter 25-26 Winter Battle Zone

Rain Cold said:
That's not very good for us. But it doesn't really have to be. A perfect pattern 2 weeks from now is not all that helpful anyway. Mid-December on into January is when we should be hoping things evolve correctly for us.

One thing of note on @Myfrotho704_ 's images is that the arctic looks good. I don't really like how far the ridging signal is out west (off the west coast). That usually looks good in the means, but if we are seeing a ridge off the west as we get closer in, I guarantee you those light blue colors over the Southeast will turn yellow and red UNLESS blocking is favorably located and of adequate strength up in eastern Canada. That is my hope. Either that or the ridge out west slides east. I thing both of those things happen with time.

These look better today to me, so I'm digging that.

View attachment 176623

View attachment 176624
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Just about to say that about the western ridge, it looked too far west, likely causing the cold dump to texas. But that's way out there anyway and changes are 100%.

Step one looks pretty certain though, cold will be on our continent and to our north at least. = Win.
 
Bigedd09 said:
Really not liking the stout SE ridge late month into December. Those are tough to overcome
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That's likely going to happen as we continue to get to & progress through phase 7. Cold is not going to drop East first. It's going to hammer down on the West. Just got to keep the progression going.
 
The 12/13 extended GEFS/EPS are both headed for phase 8 mid-Dec. For those wondering how often E US cold has been associated with phase 8 in Dec (whether well outside, just outside, near, or inside the circle), here’s the breakdown of 3+ day long phase 8 periods in Baltimore as a representative (centrally located) E US city:


For 3+ day long phase 8 (includes inside circle): 23 periods (* La Niña)

12/20-22/1974: +1

12/19-31/1975: -4*

12/14-17/1976: -2

12/10-15/1977: -6

12/16-18/1979: -5

12/26-28/1981: -2

12/8-10/1982: -6

12/19-23/1986: -3

12/2-6/1988: +1*

12/1-4/1989: -9

12/9-18/1989: -16

12/2-4/1990: +6

12/1-7/1991: +1

12/9-14/1991: +8

12/9-12/1992: 0

12/20-25/1995: -8*

12/15-17/2000: 0*

12/21-25/2001: -1

12/5-9/2002: -15

12/1-3/2007: -4*

12/6-9/2009: -4

12/20-22/2009: -7

12/21-24/2017: +5*

———


Before analyzing the temperatures, note how the frequency of 3+ day long Dec phase 8 periods has plunged since 2009:

-During 1974-2009, there were 22 three+ day long phase 8s through the 36 Decs or a frequency of 0.61/Dec.

-But during 2010-2024, there was only ONE 3+ day long period or a mere 0.07/Dec, which is a minuscule 1/9 as often as that for 1974-2008!

-The longest drought during 1974-2009 was a mere 4 Decs. But during 2010-24, there have been two 7 Dec droughts!

-So, based on this, although I’m hoping the latest extended EPS/GEFS are correct in projecting a 3++ day long phase 8 this Dec, I’m taking it with a grain for now.

——————

Now to analyze the Baltimore temps for the 23 three+ day Dec phase 8 periods 1974-2024:

-# of periods: MB 4 (17%), B 10 (43%), NN 6 (26%), A 2 (9%), MA 1 (4%)

-So, there have been nearly 5 times as many B/MB periods as A/MA periods!

-The average daily anomaly was -4 over the 112 days.
 
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SimeonNC said:
Question, when was the last time we had a SSW in general? Because I feel like one hasn't happened in a while.
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No it has happened recently. During DJF there were several in 2023-4 and there also were two in Feb of 2023. 20-21 had 3.

But the last one on Dec or earlier was way back in 2001! The last one in Nov was way back in 1968!
 
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