Wintry Winter 25-26 Winter Battle Zone

[griteater]

Someone jog my memory without having to dive deep into past Forums, but the last disruption of the polar vortex happened in December of last year right? then we had the few week lag period which gave us the active Winter storm pattern in January. But the actual event happened in the December correct?

Also, how well did guidance forecast the disruption last November for December?

The SPV was actually stronger than normal all last winter and we had the big cold blast in Jan. Last winter was a bit unusual though as there was a big disconnect between the troposphere and the stratosphere. Sometimes that happens though.

But the strat is just one tool in the toolbox. It's difficult though to have prolonged Greenland blocking episodes if the lower stratosphere (100mb) isn't weaker than normal, so that's what we're shooting for.





Here's the image from 2010-2011. Can see the weaker than normal lower stratosphere from mid-Nov to late Jan

 

[Mitch West]

The SPV was actually stronger than normal all last winter and we had the big cold blast in Jan. Last winter was a bit unusual though as there was a big disconnect between the troposphere and the stratosphere. Sometimes that happens though.

But the strat is just one tool in the toolbox. It's difficult though to have prolonged Greenland blocking episodes if the lower stratosphere (100mb) isn't weaker than normal, so that's what we're shooting for.

View attachment 176558



Here's the image from 2010-2011. Can see the weaker than normal lower stratosphere from mid-Nov to late Jan

View attachment 176559

Ahhh got ya. I thought there was connection to what was mentioned above. Totally wrong I guess! haha

 

[griteater]

Here are the 5 Cool ENSO / La Nina Decembers since the late 70's that had a coherent MJO wave roll out of Phase 7 and into 8-1-2 (with varying levels of amplitude) which is what I think we are going to see this December (but no guarantees of course). Each one was cold to very cold east of the Rockies

 

[GaWx]

Here are the 5 Cool ENSO / La Nina Decembers since the late 70's that had a coherent MJO wave roll out of Phase 7 and into 8-1-2 (with varying levels of amplitude) which is what I think we are going to see this December (but no guarantees of course). Each one was cold to very cold east of the Rockies

View attachment 176560

View attachment 176561

View attachment 176562

View attachment 176563

View attachment 176564

View attachment 176565

View attachment 176566

Hey Grit, very nice analysis!

I want to ask you about whether you should consider adding two other Decembers:

1. 1981:
- like 1985 and 1989, ENSO was cold neutral
- On the MJO chart below, you can see it coherently went from 7 to 8 to 1 in the 2nd half of Dec. Then in Jan it moves out of 1 into 2 on Jan 5th with Jan 7th the last day in phase 2. So, a good portion of this was in Dec.

Dec:


Jan:


2. 1974:

- was La Nina
- this was the first Dec. for which MJO data was available. There’s no chart for it, but the text is there. I copied 12/16-29 because it shows that that period started in phase 7 and then coherently went through 8-1-2 (with mainly moderate intensity) 12/20-29:

1974 12 16 -0.57059002 0.59700698 7 0.82582700 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind
1974 12 17 -0.48232999 0.69856101 7 0.84890199 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind
1974 12 18 -0.36357000 0.71566701 7 0.80272198 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind
1974 12 19 -0.50213999 0.67306399 7 0.83973598 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind
1974 12 20 -0.94752997 0.73516202 8 1.1992800 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind
1974 12 21 -1.2667900 0.49437299 8 1.3598400 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind
1974 12 22 -1.4928600 0.41040900 8 1.5482500 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind
1974 12 23 -1.4189500 -0.18106000 1 1.4304500 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind
1974 12 24 -1.4376301 -0.36104000 1 1.4822700 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind
1974 12 25 -1.3505800 -0.54887998 1 1.4578600 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind
1974 12 26 -1.0854100 -0.86048001 1 1.3851200 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind
1974 12 27 -0.72742999 -1.0168999 2 1.2502900 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind
1974 12 28 -0.49579999 -0.72926003 2 0.88183898 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind
1974 12 29 -0.26330999 -0.53425997 2 0.59562302 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind

 

[hendrik]

Just did ~an hour and a half of some good old number crunching (referring to my earlier message). While doing that I made a spreadsheet with the combined daily pna, nao, and ao values all together, which (to my knowledge) was not readily available before, so there's that.

For the sake of my sleep schedule the write-up will have to wait until tomorrow, but it should be interesting at least. I'll include the resources in there if anyone would like.

Starting to seem like the pieces are really coming together for a productive winter down here. Fingers crossed.

 

[SnowNiner]

Thing about December is that we have a lot of things on our side right now.

1. La Nina climo
2. La Nina / -QBO
3. Weaker than normal SPV
4. Favorable MJO

All of those favor colder than normal temperatures. The whole month may not average cold, but it would be an upset loss if we don't see a good chunk of it colder than normal

Here's today's SPV zonal wind chart. Can see how the SPV is weaker than normal into late Dec. Hopefully, the more important lower strat at 100 hPa (100mb) is even weaker than what is showing here as that would help promote blocking episodes

View attachment 176556

Thanks Grit! I’m pretty convinced we’re in for a decent December considering all the things we have going for us, especially with the likelihood of the MJO progressing in a way the leads to favorable pacific. You and Webb have given a lot of evidence that we’re on the right course there. That in itself is enough for me to have positive expectations, and I really appreciate those valuable insights.

Im just trying to temper my excitement considering past periods that seemed to have so many elements going for it only for things to fall apart. Was it 2 February/Marchs ago? I remember similar positive expectations that didn’t pan out. The mjo didn’t progress, the jet didn’t cooperate and we ridged and torched. But that’s every February and March now.

Keeping hope alive!

 

[GaWx]

There are 5 major SSW events on record between Nov 24th and Dec 7th:

-1958
-1965
-1968
-1981
-1987

Here’s the Dec temp. anomaly map: E US mainly 1-2 F BN


Here’s the Jan temp. anomaly map: E US mainly 2-4 BN, which incorporates extreme cold in places during 1966 (late), 1982 (mid) and 1988 (early):


Here’s the Feb temp. anomaly map: E US NN


So, the coldest month regarding E US anomalies was Jan and the warmest was Feb. Feb. might have been even warmer (warmer than normal) had 4 of these 5 winters not been during El Niño, which tends to favor cold in the 2nd half of winter vs La Nina’s colder 1st half.

All of this is telling me that should the late Nov major SSW actually occur, the coldest month in the E US could easily be Jan rather than Dec, which makes sense considering an assumed several week lag. But, of course, that would remain to be seen especially considering La Niña often favoring Dec as the coldest anomalywise.

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-SSW-and-SFW-event-onset-date-year-and-type-identified-in-the-NCEP-NCAR-dataset-The_tbl1_267063738

 

[tennessee storm]

Thanks Grit! I’m pretty convinced we’re in for a decent December considering all the things we have going for us, especially with the likelihood of the MJO progressing in a way the leads to favorable pacific. You and Webb have given a lot of evidence that we’re on the right course there. That in itself is enough for me to have positive expectations, and I really appreciate those valuable insights.

Im just trying to temper my excitement considering past periods that seemed to have so many elements going for it only for things to fall apart. Was it 2 February/Marchs ago? I remember similar positive expectations that didn’t pan out. The mjo didn’t progress, the jet didn’t cooperate and we ridged and torched. But that’s every February and March now.

Keeping hope alive!

Still say December at worst
Will be average temps these ssw events don’t always work in our favor…

 

[SnowNiner]

Still say December at worst
Will be average temps these ssw events don’t always work in our favor…

I usually don't much stock in SSWs at all either. But I've never seen one this early. Analogs Larry shared are eye opening, so I'm very interested to say the least. There's at least a chance that with all these overlapping elements on top of one another December could be one to remember. But it's too early to tell imo.

 

[Ollie Williams]

I will admit that S2S forecasting is not something I am as knowledgeable about as some others on here - I wish I had the time to dig into the literature. However, I was speaking with some graduate students and Dr. Sarah Larson, who started at State just after @Webberweather53 left, and is our resident expert on ENSO and S2S predictability. The consensus from them is that since the MJO lag generally is ~20 days out, it is often challenging to distinguish the MJO from noise as it heads east, and it's like playing a game of telephone. Be cautious not to become overly confident in relying on the signals.

That said, the ECMWF weeklies have a slight SER pop-up, so hopefully the MJO prevails over the Nina signal.

 

[griteater]

I will admit that S2S forecasting is not something I am as knowledgeable about as some others on here - I wish I had the time to dig into the literature. However, I was speaking with some graduate students and Dr. Sarah Larson, who started at State just after @Webberweather53 left, and is our resident expert on ENSO and S2S predictability. The consensus from them is that since the MJO lag generally is ~20 days out, it is often challenging to distinguish the MJO from noise as it heads east, and it's like playing a game of telephone. Be cautious not to become overly confident in relying on the signals.

That said, the ECMWF weeklies have a slight SER pop-up, so hopefully the MJO prevails over the Nina signal.
View attachment 176583

My thinking in the linked post here was that -EPO / +PNA would be favored more in mid-Dec to early Jan, but there are a myriad of things that go into the pattern (of course), and I of course could be wrong.

..."The MJO passing thru phases 7-8-1-2 in the early December to early January timeframe should favor increasing AK and western North America ridging (-EPO / +PNA) in the mid-December to early January timeframe."

Wintry - Winter 25-26 Winter Battle Zone

I wonder if this will possibly go something like 1998-99 did. If so, someone in NC and SC may be in for a MAJOR icestorm in late Dec or early Jan. Maybe both months just like that winter. yeeeahh, I fell like this presents ice stormy somewhere later on.

southernwx.com

 

[griteater]

Hey Grit, very nice analysis!

I want to ask you about whether you should consider adding two other Decembers:

1. 1981:
- like 1985 and 1989, ENSO was cold neutral
- On the MJO chart below, you can see it coherently went from 7 to 8 to 1 in the 2nd half of Dec. Then in Jan it moves out of 1 into 2 on Jan 5th with Jan 7th the last day in phase 2. So, a good portion of this was in Dec.

Dec:
View attachment 176571

Jan:
View attachment 176572

2. 1974:

- was La Nina
- this was the first Dec. for which MJO data was available. There’s no chart for it, but the text is there. I copied 12/16-29 because it shows that that period started in phase 7 and then coherently went through 8-1-2 (with mainly moderate intensity) 12/20-29:

1974 12 16 -0.57059002 0.59700698 7 0.82582700 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind
1974 12 17 -0.48232999 0.69856101 7 0.84890199 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind
1974 12 18 -0.36357000 0.71566701 7 0.80272198 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind
1974 12 19 -0.50213999 0.67306399 7 0.83973598 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind
1974 12 20 -0.94752997 0.73516202 8 1.1992800 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind
1974 12 21 -1.2667900 0.49437299 8 1.3598400 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind
1974 12 22 -1.4928600 0.41040900 8 1.5482500 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind
1974 12 23 -1.4189500 -0.18106000 1 1.4304500 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind
1974 12 24 -1.4376301 -0.36104000 1 1.4822700 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind
1974 12 25 -1.3505800 -0.54887998 1 1.4578600 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind
1974 12 26 -1.0854100 -0.86048001 1 1.3851200 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind
1974 12 27 -0.72742999 -1.0168999 2 1.2502900 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind
1974 12 28 -0.49579999 -0.72926003 2 0.88183898 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind
1974 12 29 -0.26330999 -0.53425997 2 0.59562302 WH04_method:_OLR_&_NCEP_wind

Thank you! Didn't realize we had that MJO data for 1974. Yeah, I didn't include Dec 1981 because it was later with the progression, but it does fit well

 

[hendrik]

Can someone provide (or link to) an update on the current ENSO situation? Not entirely sure what we are looking for or where we are headed, but I'd like to be able to follow it.

 

[griteater]

Can someone provide (or link to) an update on the current ENSO situation? Not entirely sure what we are looking for or where we are headed, but I'd like to be able to follow it.

The weekly ENSO update report from NOAA is good: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produ...ng/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

And: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

Climate Prediction Center - ONI

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

 

[Chazwin]

I usually don't much stock in SSWs at all either. But I've never seen one this early. Analogs Larry shared are eye opening, so I'm very interested to say the least. There's at least a chance that with all these overlapping elements on top of one another December could be one to remember. But it's too early to tell imo.

Even without a SSW, we still have a very weak PV with indicies lining up very favorably expecially with being in a LaNina

 

[Rain Cold]

These Decembers in Nina years can definitely have some big cold air outbreaks for the US in general and for us in the East. I know it will happen at some point.

This Nina is pretty week and will be fading, so I certainly wouldn't base the rest of the season on it.

 

[Webberweather53]

I will admit that S2S forecasting is not something I am as knowledgeable about as some others on here - I wish I had the time to dig into the literature. However, I was speaking with some graduate students and Dr. Sarah Larson, who started at State just after @Webberweather53 left, and is our resident expert on ENSO and S2S predictability. The consensus from them is that since the MJO lag generally is ~20 days out, it is often challenging to distinguish the MJO from noise as it heads east, and it's like playing a game of telephone. Be cautious not to become overly confident in relying on the signals.

That said, the ECMWF weeklies have a slight SER pop-up, so hopefully the MJO prevails over the Nina signal.
View attachment 176583

Yeah the SE US ridge makes sense at the end of November here.

Anything that can generate appreciable and consistent convective heating west of the international dateline is going to be very effective at producing a -EPO/+TNH pattern a lot of the time.

Here’s what Dec-Jan-Feb phase 7 composite of the OLR MJO Index (OMI) OLR (shaded) & 200 hPa streamfunction anomalies looks like. Notice the wave train that arcs away from the West Pac heating anomalies with ridging over Alaska & a deep trough near the Hudson Bay.



This is reasonably close to what the EPS weekly forecast shows in the first week of December




I also regressed the University of Maryland OLR monthly dataset onto the CPC’s EP/NH index (a close cousin to the EPO). Notice the significant -OLR anomalies between 150-180E over the equatorial Pacific





Typically, the kind of winters that are the most efficient at producing -EPO patterns like the one we are seeing in early December are ones where the low frequency ENSO state in the Pacific is somewhere between a “modoki”/central Pacific El Niño & La Niña, or has +SSTa focused west of the Int’l dateline ~150E-180E.

A lot of the time, you’ll also notice many of these winters with big -EPOs are followed by El Niño in the subsequent year because this subtle eastward shift in the warm pool that forces them can be favorable to the onset of El Niño.

2013-14 is a quintessential example of this.

Notice the +SSTa focused west of the International Dateline and the corresponding -OLRa centered around 150E longitude in the equatorial Pacific. This

 

[Bigedd09]

So it's official. We are punting early December now? Lol

 

[Tsappfrog20]

Yeah the SE US ridge makes sense at the end of November here.

Anything that can generate appreciable and consistent convective heating west of the international dateline is going to be very effective at producing a -EPO/+TNH pattern a lot of the time.

Here’s what Dec-Jan-Feb phase 7 composite of the OLR MJO Index (OMI) OLR (shaded) & 200 hPa streamfunction anomalies looks like. Notice the wave train that arcs away from the West Pac heating anomalies with ridging over Alaska & a deep trough near the Hudson Bay.
View attachment 176590


This is reasonably close to what the EPS weekly forecast shows in the first week of December

View attachment 176591


I also regressed the University of Maryland OLR monthly dataset onto the CPC’s EP/NH index (a close cousin to the EPO). Notice the significant -OLR anomalies between 150-180E over the equatorial Pacific

View attachment 176593



Typically, the kind of winters that are the most efficient at producing -EPO patterns like the one we are seeing in early December are ones where the low frequency ENSO state in the Pacific is somewhere between a “modoki”/central Pacific El Niño & La Niña, or has +SSTa focused west of the Int’l dateline ~150E-180E.

A lot of the time, you’ll also notice many of these winters with big -EPOs are followed by El Niño in the subsequent year because this subtle eastward shift in the warm pool that forces them can be favorable to the onset of El Niño.

2013-14 is a quintessential example of this.

Notice the +SSTa focused west of the International Dateline and the corresponding -OLRa centered around 150E longitude in the equatorial Pacific. This

View attachment 176596


View attachment 176595

Eric I’m so thankful for all of the information that you give us! I am learning so much from you and others!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Bigedd09]

Yeah the SE US ridge makes sense at the end of November here.

Anything that can generate appreciable and consistent convective heating west of the international dateline is going to be very effective at producing a -EPO/+TNH pattern a lot of the time.

Here’s what Dec-Jan-Feb phase 7 composite of the OLR MJO Index (OMI) OLR (shaded) & 200 hPa streamfunction anomalies looks like. Notice the wave train that arcs away from the West Pac heating anomalies with ridging over Alaska & a deep trough near the Hudson Bay.
View attachment 176590


This is reasonably close to what the EPS weekly forecast shows in the first week of December

View attachment 176591


I also regressed the University of Maryland OLR monthly dataset onto the CPC’s EP/NH index (a close cousin to the EPO). Notice the significant -OLR anomalies between 150-180E over the equatorial Pacific

View attachment 176593



Typically, the kind of winters that are the most efficient at producing -EPO patterns like the one we are seeing in early December are ones where the low frequency ENSO state in the Pacific is somewhere between a “modoki”/central Pacific El Niño & La Niña, or has +SSTa focused west of the Int’l dateline ~150E-180E.

A lot of the time, you’ll also notice many of these winters with big -EPOs are followed by El Niño in the subsequent year because this subtle eastward shift in the warm pool that forces them can be favorable to the onset of El Niño.

2013-14 is a quintessential example of this.

Notice the +SSTa focused west of the International Dateline and the corresponding -OLRa centered around 150E longitude in the equatorial Pacific. This

View attachment 176596


View attachment 176595

Another Feb 2014 storm would be nice

 

[griteater]

Yeah the SE US ridge makes sense at the end of November here.

Anything that can generate appreciable and consistent convective heating west of the international dateline is going to be very effective at producing a -EPO/+TNH pattern a lot of the time.

Here’s what Dec-Jan-Feb phase 7 composite of the OLR MJO Index (OMI) OLR (shaded) & 200 hPa streamfunction anomalies looks like. Notice the wave train that arcs away from the West Pac heating anomalies with ridging over Alaska & a deep trough near the Hudson Bay.
View attachment 176590


This is reasonably close to what the EPS weekly forecast shows in the first week of December

View attachment 176591


I also regressed the University of Maryland OLR monthly dataset onto the CPC’s EP/NH index (a close cousin to the EPO). Notice the significant -OLR anomalies between 150-180E over the equatorial Pacific

View attachment 176593



Typically, the kind of winters that are the most efficient at producing -EPO patterns like the one we are seeing in early December are ones where the low frequency ENSO state in the Pacific is somewhere between a “modoki”/central Pacific El Niño & La Niña, or has +SSTa focused west of the Int’l dateline ~150E-180E.

A lot of the time, you’ll also notice many of these winters with big -EPOs are followed by El Niño in the subsequent year because this subtle eastward shift in the warm pool that forces them can be favorable to the onset of El Niño.

2013-14 is a quintessential example of this.

Notice the +SSTa focused west of the International Dateline and the corresponding -OLRa centered around 150E longitude in the equatorial Pacific. This

View attachment 176596


View attachment 176595

That's a cool image Eric. Is that out on the MJO OMI site somewhere?

 

[MRKEVIN7575]

That's a cool image Eric. Is that out on the MJO OMI site somewhere?

View attachment 176600

Imo, if the niña still leans east based just based on subsurface, i think it will be colder than one thinks for this winter.

 

[Webberweather53]

That's a cool image Eric. Is that out on the MJO OMI site somewhere?

View attachment 176600

Thanks! Yeah you can find this image at the bottom of the NOAA ESRL MJO indices page under “composites”

https://psl.noaa.gov/mjo/

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Westerly QBO from the Singapore sounding yesterday.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Webberweather53]

Gotta build the glacier

 

[griteater]

Westerly QBO from the Singapore sounding yesterday.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The 30mb down to 50mb layer is typically what is used in various correlations for seasonal forecasting. This is a well-entrenched negative QBO this winter and that sounding will be the same day after day. It's a slow change. We'll probably be well-entrenched in the positive phase next winter - that'd be my quick guess

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

The 30mb down to 50mb layer is typically what is used in various correlations for seasonal forecasting. This is a well-entrenched negative QBO this winter and that sounding will be the same day after day. It's a slow change. We'll probably be well-entrenched in the positive phase next winter - that'd be my quick guess

Thanks for clarifying Grit, I’m trying to learn more about QBO, MJO, etc. I’ve seen some really informative posts here lately, thanks to all!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Rain Cold]

Can someone tell me why when you run the 5 day average temps for the CFS, it is showing almost all negative anomalies for much of the nation through the end of December, but when you run the monthly output for the month of December (the seasonal run, which also updates daily), it shows mostly positive temperature anomalies? What am I missing?

 

[Webberweather53]

An oldie tweet from mine but relevant once again as we move from late Nov into early Dec.

This is what happens when you autocorrelate large -EPO events in winter:



Eventually, nearly 2 weeks after the -EPO peaks in winter, what usually kicks the core of the cold eastward (if it’s not there already) is the +EPO that’s generated as cross-polar flow behind the retreating ridge drops a trough into Alaska. This helps to extend the exit region of the pacific jet, flattening and nudging the GOA ridge into the Western US. The NAO also tends to become more negative again

 

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies have a stronger SE ridge than prior runs even though they show it weakening through the month. They (I look at the maps direct from the ecmwf source) are not showing persistent cold in the E US, especially Mid-Atlantic and more especially in the SE. Heart of the cold is Chicago W and SW.

Dec 1-7 is significantly warmer than prior runs with AN temps SE thanks to a strong SE ridge. Dec 8-14 is slightly warmer than the prior run though the SE ridge is weakening. The ridge slowly weakens the rest of the month. But again, the SE ridge was weak on most runs prior to this.

 

[Stevo24]

Today’s Euro Weeklies have a stronger SE ridge than prior runs even though they show it weakening through the month. They (I look at the maps direct from the ecmwf source) are not showing persistent cold in the E US, especially Mid-Atlantic and more especially in the SE. Heart of the cold is Chicago W and SW.

Dec 1-7 is significantly warmer than prior runs with AN temps SE thanks to a strong SE ridge. Dec 8-14 is slightly warmer than the prior run though the SE ridge is weakening. The ridge slowly weakens the rest of the month.

This is great news! Thanks for the update!

 

[MRKEVIN7575]

This is great news! Thanks for the update!

I guess it helps build snow pack up north, which could lead to better things later

 

[griteater]

Given La Nina / -QBO / Current Stratosphere Conditions / MJO Progression - broadly speaking, tonight's GFS Extended forecast gives a good approximation of how I think the pattern will progress across North America from late November into mid-December, but I would delay it about 5 days or so. That's my best guess.

Images here are for Nov 23-30, Nov 30 - Dec 7, Dec 7-14

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Given La Nina / -QBO / Current Stratosphere Conditions / MJO Progression - broadly speaking, tonight's GFS Extended forecast gives a good approximation of how I think the pattern will progress across North America from late November into mid-December, but I would delay it about 5 days or so. That's my best guess.

Images here are for Nov 23-30, Nov 30 - Dec 7, Dec 7-14

View attachment 176612

View attachment 176613

That look on the 3rd slide of the GEFS is typically when winter storms occur for the EC, I do like that trough around Hawaii could sneak us some energy through the western ridge once the cold is established

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

View attachment 176614View attachment 176615View attachment 176616View attachment 176617

The similarities of the patterns to December 2000 is really interesting. +PNA,-QBO,-AO should yield core of the cold over the Great Lakes, Plains, Rockies first and then shift SE with time IMO.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Bigedd09]

Really not liking the stout SE ridge late month into December. Those are tough to overcome

 

[NCSNOW]

Really not liking the stout SE ridge late month into December. Those are tough to overcome

Problem solved; Seriously I wouldn't pay any attn to any day 15 prog, especially right now. Seen models pull so many head fakes since July in regards to H5 days 7-14.

 

[NCSNOW]

Ive seen worse

 

[Rain Cold]

Ive seen worse

View attachment 176621
View attachment 176620
View attachment 176622

That's not very good for us. But it doesn't really have to be. A perfect pattern 2 weeks from now is not all that helpful anyway. Mid-December on into January is when we should be hoping things evolve correctly for us.

One thing of note on @Myfrotho704_ 's images is that the arctic looks good. I don't really like how far the ridging signal is out west (off the west coast). That usually looks good in the means, but if we are seeing a ridge off the west as we get closer in, I guarantee you those light blue colors over the Southeast will turn yellow and red UNLESS blocking is favorably located and of adequate strength up in eastern Canada. That is my hope. Either that or the ridge out west slides east. I thing both of those things happen with time.

These look better today to me, so I'm digging that.