iGRXY
Member
I like below temps but anytime I see one of these with “winter battleground” on it I throw it out the window. That’s lazy predictions.Well, we got Bob on our side.
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Wintry Winter 25-26 Preszn discussion
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Brent
Member
I've pretty much quit believing seasonal forecasts anyway
They can't even predict next month....
And like I said before out here last winter the best storms came out of nowhere anyway and the two winters before that we had a snow hole around us during the best storm of the year with a winter storm warning
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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We hug!Well, we got Bob on our side.
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Well, we got Bob on our side.
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Below is his 2018-9 winter precip. forecast. From it:
1. “Winter Battle Zone” area: The battle was won in Dec with a major snow during Dec. in the GSP area, much of NC (at least Charlotte, Asheville, GSO, RDU), and much of VA. But E NC, most of TN, and most of N GA, N AL, and N MS lost the battle.
2. “Icy Winter” area: I couldn’t find any ice or snow
3. “Wet Winter” zone had mainly AN rainfall. So that verified well. Actually, much of the south centered on TN had a wet winter.
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There are actually a good amount of decent analogs in this list. When I put out my analogs it was actually slightly bn here way bn for you
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The song Cold Rain and Snow that the Grateful Dead covers describes the winter weather perfectly that occurs along the transition line that runs along 40 in the RDU area during many of our winter storms. By the way, that song was written by a North Carolina native.
Agreed. I have seen "winter battleground" and "Icey" for my forecast time and time again and I'm still waiting on that ice for twenty years.
JHS
Member
There are some very nice ones on there. 1978-79, 1981-82, 1993-94, and 2013-14 stand out to me. This board would be happy with any of them I think, even 1993-94 which did not have much snow, but did have 2 fairly significant ice events. Most on here probably do not remember the 1978-79 and 1981-82 winters, but they were both very nice with multiple big events.
BOOM!
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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That map is absolute garbage!
MichaelJ
Member
I think the winter will be pretty normal and pedestrian in the SE. Snow depends on SO many factors to make it here, nobody has any clue how much we get, if any. Patterns of cold or warm CAN be discerned at times but the variables involved with them producing snow south of Virginia are a crap shoot
NCSNOW
Member
For Greensboro I'm in the camp we we wind up -1 to possibly -2 BN temp wise for the winter and Snowfall right on climo avg. Which after the past few seasons, I will gladly take.
Refreshing we don't have to deal with enso major signals, in either direction.
I think our biggest hurdle outside of Timing, if we have one will be qpf slightly BN, especially 1st half of winter ( Dec1-Jan 15 ).
Refreshing we don't have to deal with enso major signals, in either direction.
I think our biggest hurdle outside of Timing, if we have one will be qpf slightly BN, especially 1st half of winter ( Dec1-Jan 15 ).
tractor girl
Member
Does anyone know what the Wooly Worm is predicting this year? I usually see at least one in my yard every year and this year so far I haven't seen one. Seriously though, with the La Nina weakening over the US and shifting into a more neutral phase, this could mean good things about the upcoming 2025-2026 winter for the Southeastern US. This might also make long range forecasting more challenging than it already is.
Keep in mind that RONI (relative ONI that takes into account how warm the overall global tropical waters are), which has recently been ~0.3 C cooler than ONI, is forecasted to be in legit weak La Niña territory. Same probably for MEI. (I assume you’re aware of MEI.)
Just sitting here thinking about the upcoming winter. I’m ready like I haven’t been in a while. Ready to track something. Let’s do it fellas.
1993-4 had a light to moderate ZR on MLK Day (Jan 17th) from Athens to the far E/NE burbs of ATL as I recall. ATL itself had very little. I was in Smyrna then and saw light icing.