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Wintry Winter 25-26 Preszn discussion

MichaelJ said:
This guy uses very sophisticated analysis tools, after all, he has a dartboard on the wall and that is a tried and true accurate diagnostic tool
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Winter forecasting is pretty much a dart throw...with the exception of the SE, of course, where you can go warmer than normal and less snowfall than normal, and you'd be right about 80% of the time.

I absolutely hate Winter Battle Zone. Ever since that came out a few years ago, that has reliably been one of the stupidest winter forecast labels.
 
Rain Cold said:
Winter forecasting is pretty much a dart throw...with the exception of the SE, of course, where you can go warmer than normal and less snowfall than normal, and you'd be right about 80% of the time.

I absolutely hate Winter Battle Zone. Ever since that came out a few years ago, that has reliably been one of the stupidest winter forecast labels.
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B-rad, is that you?? SnoMG
 
Rain Cold said:
Winter forecasting is pretty much a dart throw...with the exception of the SE, of course, where you can go warmer than normal and less snowfall than normal, and you'd be right about 80% of the time.

I absolutely hate Winter Battle Zone. Ever since that came out a few years ago, that has reliably been one of the stupidest winter forecast labels.
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It's just what I said out here... The stuff that has been hyped up for the last few winters was nothing the biggest snowstorm came out of nowhere 😂 and I'm seeing the same thing this year everyone just assumes it'll be a good winter because of ___

And I think somewhere between here and there for sure is always a basically permanent battle zone in winter most of time. Like why do people make such a big deal about it

Gotta get those clicks and people asking what it means I guess
 
Rain Cold said:
Winter forecasting is pretty much a dart throw...with the exception of the SE, of course, where you can go warmer than normal and less snowfall than normal, and you'd be right about 80% of the time.

I absolutely hate Winter Battle Zone. Ever since that came out a few years ago, that has reliably been one of the stupidest winter forecast labels.
Click to expand...
I've been wondering this for years ever since that deluded Direct Weather guy started his winter "forecasts", erm, wishcasts. What even is the "winter battle zone"? If it's supposed to be where freezing rain/rain/snow mix occurs most often, then he places it too far south every single time. Even places like DC and NYC get the majority of their winter precip as rain. The battle zone should be in Connecticut or southern Mass, perhaps
 
Csa said:
I've been wondering this for years ever since that deluded Direct Weather guy started his winter "forecasts", erm, wishcasts. What even is the "winter battle zone"? If it's supposed to be where freezing rain/rain/snow mix occurs most often, then he places it too far south every single time. Even places like DC and NYC get the majority of their winter precip as rain. The battle zone should be in Connecticut or southern Mass, perhaps
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MichaelJ said:
Battle zone just pinpoints the demarcation line between snow/ice/sleet and of course our favorite RainCold, er I mean ColdRain. Guess which one most of NC falls in?😜
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But as Csa correctly states above, a large majority of precip during most winters in much of the SE falls as rain and a majority in the Mid-Atlantic falls as rain in many winters. However, most forecasters showing a “Battlezone” almost always seem to have it in portions of the Carolinas, TN, GA, AL, and MS. That’s almost always too far south. It’s a vague term, regardless, as @Rain Cold implies.
 
I've said this before, I like reading winter forecast (especially if its cold/snowy for me). But after many years, I've learned nobody has a sure method to determine the dominate winter patter. Sure ESNO is a key indicator, but that always has surprises (..is it la nina?) and many time blocking episodes can totally turn a warm winter pattern to a cold/snow (historic) pattern. So again, I'll wait for the first of December and start looking two weeks out.

Edit: ENSO
 
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FallsLake said:
I've said this before, I like reading winter forecast (especially if its cold/snowy for me). But after many years, I've learned nobody has a sure method to determine the dominate winter patter. Sure ESNO is a key indicator, but that always has surprises (..is it la nina?) and many time blocking episodes can totally turn a warm winter pattern to a cold/snow (historic) pattern. So again, I'll wait for the first of December and start looking two weeks out.
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I get posting what one will think will happen off of long term models for enso but it’s ridiculous to see these “predictions” months out when the exact dynamics are hard to tell 2 days out! I don’t think there is enough known about specific patterns/setups for anyone to get excited or worried about anything until it’s close to your doorstep in any type of weather. I.E. Winter/Severe/Hurricane. It’s a crap shoot!
 
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