Interesting!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I came across this video..
Bring It!
PAY atten @ 2:20
Winter forecasting is pretty much a dart throw...with the exception of the SE, of course, where you can go warmer than normal and less snowfall than normal, and you'd be right about 80% of the time.This guy uses very sophisticated analysis tools, after all, he has a dartboard on the wall and that is a tried and true accurate diagnostic tool
B-rad, is that you?? SnoMGWinter forecasting is pretty much a dart throw...with the exception of the SE, of course, where you can go warmer than normal and less snowfall than normal, and you'd be right about 80% of the time.
I absolutely hate Winter Battle Zone. Ever since that came out a few years ago, that has reliably been one of the stupidest winter forecast labels.
Winter forecasting is pretty much a dart throw...with the exception of the SE, of course, where you can go warmer than normal and less snowfall than normal, and you'd be right about 80% of the time.
I absolutely hate Winter Battle Zone. Ever since that came out a few years ago, that has reliably been one of the stupidest winter forecast labels.
I've been wondering this for years ever since that deluded Direct Weather guy started his winter "forecasts", erm, wishcasts. What even is the "winter battle zone"? If it's supposed to be where freezing rain/rain/snow mix occurs most often, then he places it too far south every single time. Even places like DC and NYC get the majority of their winter precip as rain. The battle zone should be in Connecticut or southern Mass, perhapsWinter forecasting is pretty much a dart throw...with the exception of the SE, of course, where you can go warmer than normal and less snowfall than normal, and you'd be right about 80% of the time.
I absolutely hate Winter Battle Zone. Ever since that came out a few years ago, that has reliably been one of the stupidest winter forecast labels.
I've been wondering this for years ever since that deluded Direct Weather guy started his winter "forecasts", erm, wishcasts. What even is the "winter battle zone"? If it's supposed to be where freezing rain/rain/snow mix occurs most often, then he places it too far south every single time. Even places like DC and NYC get the majority of their winter precip as rain. The battle zone should be in Connecticut or southern Mass, perhaps
Battle zone just pinpoints the demarcation line between snow/ice/sleet and of course our favorite RainCold, er I mean ColdRain. Guess which one most of NC falls in?![]()
I get posting what one will think will happen off of long term models for enso but it’s ridiculous to see these “predictions” months out when the exact dynamics are hard to tell 2 days out! I don’t think there is enough known about specific patterns/setups for anyone to get excited or worried about anything until it’s close to your doorstep in any type of weather. I.E. Winter/Severe/Hurricane. It’s a crap shoot!I've said this before, I like reading winter forecast (especially if its cold/snowy for me). But after many years, I've learned nobody has a sure method to determine the dominate winter patter. Sure ESNO is a key indicator, but that always has surprises (..is it la nina?) and many time blocking episodes can totally turn a warm winter pattern to a cold/snow (historic) pattern. So again, I'll wait for the first of December and start looking two weeks out.
I am going wilh a full blow torch this upcoming winter. Hate say …. That’s my call. I m not liking what I see in artic region. Hopefully change soon
I'll take that map and call it a winter. It's been a few years since the KRDU area has seen more than six inches of snow accumulation during a winter.13/14 redux incoming!! Lets cook View attachment 174888
I would take last year's winter weather again:I'll take that map and call it a winter. It's been a few years since the KRDU area has seen more than six inches of snow accumulation during a winter.
We ask birdman
Yep, I think even in a relatively snowy place like Boston, the majority of winter precip actually falls as rainfall.But as Csa correctly states above, a large majority of precip during most winters in much of the SE falls as rain and a majority in the Mid-Atlantic falls as rain in many winters. However, most forecasters showing a “Battlezone” almost always seem to have it in portions of the Carolinas, TN, GA, AL, and MS. That’s almost always too far south. It’s a vague term, regardless, as @Rain Cold implies.
the X is only for Central and South Florida.Should probably take the X off of Florida after last winter.
the X is only for Central and South Florida.
Not a chance.13/14 redux incoming!! Lets cook View attachment 174888
This year, we get the Miami Mauler, 2-4” of snow on Miami Beach before changing over to rain. 4-8” in Homestead, lake effect snow off Lake Okeechobee enhances snow totals right around thr lake, bringing totals nearby to nearly a foot. Key West mixes with wet snow early on and gets a coating. Some say they haven’t seen this much fresh powder in Miami since the 70s! Sounds insane, but 8-10” of snow in Pensacola would’ve sounded about as insane this time last year.![]()
You must live in high elevations …. it’s been way above average forGet ready for +PNA winter. This is just what the doctor ordered to keep the Jet stream buckeling in the east. Why we have seen the coolest August and September in my lifetime, that I can recollect.
The only place that's apparently been way BN is the upstate to greensboro. Its been nice here but nothing that's eye popping for this time of yearYou must live in high elevations …. it’s been way above average for
Most Tennessee. Even East Tennessee
The west pacific is much warmer than in 13-14, which is reason why it won't be remotely close to that winter imoNot a chance.
Interesting that this article mentions that warm blob is in the same location as the one going into 2013-2014 which keeps coming up on analogsGet ready for +PNA winter. This is just what the doctor ordered to keep the Jet stream buckeling in the east. Why we have seen the coolest August and September in my lifetime, that I can recollect.
You have an analog year to recommend?The west pacific is much warmer than in 13-14, which is reason why it won't be remotely close to that winter imo