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Wintry Winter 25-26 Preszn discussion

MichaelJ said:
This guy uses very sophisticated analysis tools, after all, he has a dartboard on the wall and that is a tried and true accurate diagnostic tool
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Winter forecasting is pretty much a dart throw...with the exception of the SE, of course, where you can go warmer than normal and less snowfall than normal, and you'd be right about 80% of the time.

I absolutely hate Winter Battle Zone. Ever since that came out a few years ago, that has reliably been one of the stupidest winter forecast labels.
 
Rain Cold said:
Winter forecasting is pretty much a dart throw...with the exception of the SE, of course, where you can go warmer than normal and less snowfall than normal, and you'd be right about 80% of the time.

I absolutely hate Winter Battle Zone. Ever since that came out a few years ago, that has reliably been one of the stupidest winter forecast labels.
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B-rad, is that you?? SnoMG
 
Rain Cold said:
Winter forecasting is pretty much a dart throw...with the exception of the SE, of course, where you can go warmer than normal and less snowfall than normal, and you'd be right about 80% of the time.

I absolutely hate Winter Battle Zone. Ever since that came out a few years ago, that has reliably been one of the stupidest winter forecast labels.
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It's just what I said out here... The stuff that has been hyped up for the last few winters was nothing the biggest snowstorm came out of nowhere 😂 and I'm seeing the same thing this year everyone just assumes it'll be a good winter because of ___

And I think somewhere between here and there for sure is always a basically permanent battle zone in winter most of time. Like why do people make such a big deal about it

Gotta get those clicks and people asking what it means I guess
 
Rain Cold said:
Winter forecasting is pretty much a dart throw...with the exception of the SE, of course, where you can go warmer than normal and less snowfall than normal, and you'd be right about 80% of the time.

I absolutely hate Winter Battle Zone. Ever since that came out a few years ago, that has reliably been one of the stupidest winter forecast labels.
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I've been wondering this for years ever since that deluded Direct Weather guy started his winter "forecasts", erm, wishcasts. What even is the "winter battle zone"? If it's supposed to be where freezing rain/rain/snow mix occurs most often, then he places it too far south every single time. Even places like DC and NYC get the majority of their winter precip as rain. The battle zone should be in Connecticut or southern Mass, perhaps
 
Csa said:
I've been wondering this for years ever since that deluded Direct Weather guy started his winter "forecasts", erm, wishcasts. What even is the "winter battle zone"? If it's supposed to be where freezing rain/rain/snow mix occurs most often, then he places it too far south every single time. Even places like DC and NYC get the majority of their winter precip as rain. The battle zone should be in Connecticut or southern Mass, perhaps
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MichaelJ said:
Battle zone just pinpoints the demarcation line between snow/ice/sleet and of course our favorite RainCold, er I mean ColdRain. Guess which one most of NC falls in?😜
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But as Csa correctly states above, a large majority of precip during most winters in much of the SE falls as rain and a majority in the Mid-Atlantic falls as rain in many winters. However, most forecasters showing a “Battlezone” almost always seem to have it in portions of the Carolinas, TN, GA, AL, and MS. That’s almost always too far south. It’s a vague term, regardless, as @Rain Cold implies.
 
I've said this before, I like reading winter forecast (especially if its cold/snowy for me). But after many years, I've learned nobody has a sure method to determine the dominate winter patter. Sure ESNO is a key indicator, but that always has surprises (..is it la nina?) and many time blocking episodes can totally turn a warm winter pattern to a cold/snow (historic) pattern. So again, I'll wait for the first of December and start looking two weeks out.

Edit: ENSO
 
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FallsLake said:
I've said this before, I like reading winter forecast (especially if its cold/snowy for me). But after many years, I've learned nobody has a sure method to determine the dominate winter patter. Sure ESNO is a key indicator, but that always has surprises (..is it la nina?) and many time blocking episodes can totally turn a warm winter pattern to a cold/snow (historic) pattern. So again, I'll wait for the first of December and start looking two weeks out.
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I get posting what one will think will happen off of long term models for enso but it’s ridiculous to see these “predictions” months out when the exact dynamics are hard to tell 2 days out! I don’t think there is enough known about specific patterns/setups for anyone to get excited or worried about anything until it’s close to your doorstep in any type of weather. I.E. Winter/Severe/Hurricane. It’s a crap shoot!
 
weather bubba said:
I'll take that map and call it a winter. It's been a few years since the KRDU area has seen more than six inches of snow accumulation during a winter.
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I would take last year's winter weather again:

Mid-January 2025:
1757719785920.png

Late January 2025:
1757719845949.png

February 2025:
1757719923321.png

We also had a couple of small (non impactful) events.
 
Occasionally, the upper air alignment across and about the continent has amplified, with ridging in the -EPO, +PNA, -AO, and -NAO positions. Deep polar intrusions have formed and dug southward, with the most recent covering the eastern two-thirds of North America. The cooler values last about four days, and it seems probable that another cPk regime could influence the nation in the upcoming 11-15 and/or 16-20 day time frame. If elongation of these trends occur as we head through the autumn and into winter, this could mean a colder outcome. The La Nina episode will likely peak in February, then start to go toward a positive-neutral environment in Sector 3.4 around and after April 1. Climatology on such developments does not assure a cold winter; do not make the mistake of using one synoptic or index parameter to make a prediction. But looking at this set-up, there is an increasing chance that the 10 year run of mostly mild national winters could end.






Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Sunday, September 14, 2025 at 2:15 A.M. CT​
 
GaWx said:
But as Csa correctly states above, a large majority of precip during most winters in much of the SE falls as rain and a majority in the Mid-Atlantic falls as rain in many winters. However, most forecasters showing a “Battlezone” almost always seem to have it in portions of the Carolinas, TN, GA, AL, and MS. That’s almost always too far south. It’s a vague term, regardless, as @Rain Cold implies.
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Yep, I think even in a relatively snowy place like Boston, the majority of winter precip actually falls as rainfall.
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
the X is only for Central and South Florida.
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This year, we get the Miami Mauler, 2-4” of snow on Miami Beach before changing over to rain. 4-8” in Homestead, lake effect snow off Lake Okeechobee enhances snow totals right around thr lake, bringing totals nearby to nearly a foot. Key West mixes with wet snow early on and gets a coating. Some say they haven’t seen this much fresh powder in Miami since the 70s! Sounds insane, but 8-10” of snow in Pensacola would’ve sounded about as insane this time last year. 😂
 
superjames1992 said:
This year, we get the Miami Mauler, 2-4” of snow on Miami Beach before changing over to rain. 4-8” in Homestead, lake effect snow off Lake Okeechobee enhances snow totals right around thr lake, bringing totals nearby to nearly a foot. Key West mixes with wet snow early on and gets a coating. Some say they haven’t seen this much fresh powder in Miami since the 70s! Sounds insane, but 8-10” of snow in Pensacola would’ve sounded about as insane this time last year.
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LOL. I was in South Beach on February 4th this year drinking Mojito’s at an outside bar at 10pm wearing shorts and sweating. Came back home on February 16th and got the huge snow here in Elizabeth City on the 20th.
 
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jrips27 said:
🙄
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Is this a real post by Maue?
I can’t believe a reputable pro met would post something like this. I mean even Joe B. wouldn’t do this.
If I didn’t know better, I would have thought this was posted by an imposter. I wonder if his account was hacked.
 
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GaWx said:
Is this a real post by Maue?
I can’t believe a reputable pro met would post something like this. I mean even Joe B. wouldn’t do this.
If I didn’t know better, I would have thought this was posted by an imposter. I wonder if his account was hacked.
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At the very least this looks to be from about 8 months ago. This has nothing to do with this upcoming winter.
 
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