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Wintry Winter 25-26 Preszn discussion

Raining Sideways Family Guy GIF by Nashville SC
 
Leaning towards a weak nina declining throughout the season but it should still largely behave like a nina. Jet extensions/lack of from mid December to late January likely determine the overall character. Should get a nice mid to late December ridge pump into AK, I am concerned its too far W this year and we are largely biased toward ridging with potentially some wedge action. I do think the region does hit another big one but that's always at random, hard to get through a nina without a big system somewhere in the region.
 
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In a rare turn of events even I believe this is the year most of us cash in on a long overdue major winter storm. Either that or it’s a brutally hot winter. Now that I’m typing this let’s just go with a brutally hot winter storm and instead of snow fireballs fall from the sky and lava covers the ground.
 
Our best storm last year came out of nowhere(and was the biggest snow day in 14 years at the airport). We didn't have a winter storm warning. School was open...

Go figure 🤣

The hype always underperforms here or the cold becomes the bigger story
 
I'm giddy upped for this upcoming winter with the ENSO forecasted state of affairs as of right now. Be hard to top last January temp wise. None the less, Ill hold off on making any calls this soon. But from 100 days out till go time, ENSO state looks like it will be in our favor and not a handicap, like it is so often.
I'm enjoying this Below normal August to much right now. Barely hit 90 degrees for just 1 day and on the verge of setting a record for sub 80 degree days for this month. Suffocation Season is over early this year! Onto fall
 
If Pensacola gets 8 inches of snow, I'll quit the forums for good.
That feeling when the Florida panhandle has more snow than you do over the last three years…

(Although last winter here was actually solid still, three 1”+ snows including a warning criteria in late February.)
 
Another warmer than average winter , the norm these days
The good news is it can be warm all winter, but all we need is a short period where it isn’t to cash in and exceed our yearly snowfall averages. Of course, a warmer winter gives us less shots at it, but in some ways I’d rather have a warm, wet winter than a cold, dry one.
 
I have my doubts as to whether this image will ever happen again during my lifetime, but I will gladly take a storm that produces an inch this winter! January 21, 2025 will forever live in infamy (of a good kind) with February 9-10, 1973 and February 26, 1914 as days when the southern half of Georgia got obliterated with snow!
 

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For Ames:
November:T: -2 P - A
December: T 0 P AA
January:T : -4 P: B
February T: -5 P :N
March T:-1 P: AA
Winter as a whole Temp -3 ( of normal)
Snow 45” for Ames/Des Moines
Go Cyclones
 
I'll take an average winter over above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation any day of the week. Hopefully some of that very cold, snowy weather just to the northwest of the Upper South will move southeast and give us in the Southeast a winter we can write home about.
 
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