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Misc Winter 22-23 Whamby and Banter Thread Part 2

DadOfJax said:
Look at you, posting a summary of the whole event and quoting something I said before the event even began to go anywhere. Clown.

That’s typical of a fro though
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I don’t wanna be that guy & maybe it’s just me, but the last part of this comment sounds kinda racist. “Typical of a fro”? What is that supposed to mean? Hopefully mods delete your post & give ya a timeout
 
IMO, there's a line between being a wishcaster, being an optimist, being pragmatic, and being a bittercaster. I'd say you're coming off more like a bittercaster than I'm coming off as a wishcaster.

No where have I said that I think this is a great pattern for winter weather and I think we score. You, however, have repeatedly gone on and on about how horrible the upcoming pattern is for SE winter weather, to the point of saying you'd punt the next month of prime climo.
 
I'm just telling you objectively what I see, if you don't like it so, be it, but that's just how I see things going forward & I've generally been right this winter. If anything, I've actually been too optimistic.

Next question.

rburrel2 said:
IMO, there's a line between being a wishcaster, being an optimist, being pragmatic, and being a bittercaster. I'd say you're coming off more like a bittercaster than I'm coming off as a wishcaster.

No where have I said that I think this is a great pattern for winter weather and I think we score. You, however, have repeatedly gone on and on about how horrible the upcoming pattern is for SE winter weather, to the point of saying you'd punt the next month of prime climo.
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rburrel2 said:
and fyi, I don't think you're bittercasting, I like reading your input. But I also don't like being incorrectly labeled a wishcaster in this circumstance.
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300+ hour ensemble means are always going to look "average" due to increasing dispersion w/ range damping the mean vs where it will end up in reality. A -PNA pattern is not an "average" pattern in general for the SE US. It's one of the warmest ones we can get.

Might get one or two random cold shots thrown into the mix, but in general it's likely going to be mild-well above normal as a whole (like it has been in January so far).
 
The initial point I brought up in the main thread is true and factual... The ensemble means are mostly average, to slightly above average on temps/heights... and they're way above average on precip. At face value that's not the worst look in the world.

Do we wind up torching more than they're showing, or do we torch worse out past 300-360 hrs? maybe so... I just pointed out what they're showing as of right now.
 
rburrel2 said:
The initial point I brought up in the main thread is true and factual... The ensemble means are mostly average, to slightly above average on temps/heights... and they're way above average on precip. At face value that's not the worst look in the world.

To we wind up torching more than they're showing, or do we torch worse out past 300-360 hrs? maybe so... I just pointed out what they're showing as of right now.
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Well that's the problem, you don't take those at face value because you know ensemble means are always going to look damped w/ increasing range, mainly due to timing differences of individual waves within models. If you actually want to derive what the anomalies would look like if the forecast rolled forward in time you have to correct the amplitude of the signal & make the forecast relative to other 300+ hour forecasts.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I don’t wanna be that guy & maybe it’s just me, but the last part of this comment sounds kinda racist. “Typical of a fro”? What is that supposed to mean? Hopefully mods delete your post & give ya a timeout
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Maybe you should have stayed away when you left other day. But we all knew you would be back and being your same ole self. You just can't stay away can you? Most know his statement wasn't being racist! Good grief Dude you're the one that has issues.

Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk
 
Snownut said:
Maybe you should have stayed away when you left other day. But we all knew you would be back and being your same ole self. You just can't stay away can you? Most know his statement wasn't being racist! Good grief Dude you're the one that has issues.

Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk
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Fro didn’t see it that way from what I can tell
 
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