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Wintry Winter 2021-2022 predictions

We're still in midsummer and there's already the start of the annual hyping of winter? Yawn. All thoughts now should be toward swimming pools , sand, and bikinis. Besides, most people here don't like it cold.

But since this is for predictions I predict this winter will average 25+ degrees colder than this summer in most of the SE.
 
Bham 99 said:
If we go to a la Nina I'm happy with that... I am scarred from our past El Nino's the last two out of three years. Plus it rains too much.
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Honestly I’m becoming more convinced that Climate Change (whether the cause is man-made or not), is leading to different solutions on set ups than what we’ve seen in the past. For example, going into last year’s LaNina you could pretty much bank on with it coming out of a Nino that we should have seen a lot of SE cold and multiple snow/ice chances the first half of winter to turnover to a much milder 2nd half with a torch setting in by late February… instead we got basically average the whole winter.
As far as this winter is concerned, I’m not sold on a LaNina yet, as I’m seeing a lot to indicate that we could see a near neutral ENSO for much of the winter. If a LaNina does develop I don’t think the typical rules for a 2nd year Niña will mean all that much. I’m seeing a lot of reasons to believe that the source regions of NW Canada and Alaska will not take as long to build up cold air as it has in recent years…. Most of those areas are seeing temperatures very close if not just below average this summer whereas the last couple years they have been setting heat records. If I had to guess right now, I think many of us in the southeast will see a lot of swings to the temps where we do see some shots of actual arctic air, but on the flip side there should be periods of mild air as well and temperatures end up close to average overall. The key to the staying power on the milder periods of course will be how much the SER is able to flex… if the ENSO does stay neutral going into the winter we should see a very active STJ that would help keep the SER at bay.
 
Chazwin said:
Honestly I’m becoming more convinced that Climate Change (whether the cause is man-made or not), is leading to different solutions on set ups than what we’ve seen in the past. For example, going into last year’s LaNina you could pretty much bank on with it coming out of a Nino that we should have seen a lot of SE cold and multiple snow/ice chances the first half of winter to turnover to a much milder 2nd half with a torch setting in by late February… instead we got basically average the whole winter.
As far as this winter is concerned, I’m not sold on a LaNina yet, as I’m seeing a lot to indicate that we could see a near neutral ENSO for much of the winter. If a LaNina does develop I don’t think the typical rules for a 2nd year Niña will mean all that much. I’m seeing a lot of reasons to believe that the source regions of NW Canada and Alaska will not take as long to build up cold air as it has in recent years…. Most of those areas are seeing temperatures very close if not just below average this summer whereas the last couple years they have been setting heat records. If I had to guess right now, I think many of us in the southeast will see a lot of swings to the temps where we do see some shots of actual arctic air, but on the flip side there should be periods of mild air as well and temperatures end up close to average overall. The key to the staying power on the milder periods of course will be how much the SER is able to flex… if the ENSO does stay neutral going into the winter we should see a very active STJ that would help keep the SER at bay.
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How do you think the Pacific is going to cooperate this year?
 
Bham 99 said:
How do you think the Pacific is going to cooperate this year?
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While I doubt the Pacific will be great throughout the winter, just based on the law of averages we really should get some help at times…. I mean let’s keep in mind that a lot of folks outside the mountains are really overdue now for solid winter storm… especially south of I-40 and of course even more so south of I-85. I keep thinking that eventually we’ve got to be able to see another Southern Slider overrunning event.
 
Chazwin said:
While I doubt the Pacific will be great throughout the winter, just based on the law of averages we really should get some help at times…. I mean let’s keep in mind that a lot of folks outside the mountains are really overdue now for solid winter storm… especially south of I-40 and of course even more so south of I-85. I keep thinking that eventually we’ve got to be able to see another Southern Slider overrunning event.
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One year, sooner or later, the I-20 to I-85 corridor, will have another blockbuster storm, like Jan ‘11
 
Chazwin said:
Honestly I’m becoming more convinced that Climate Change (whether the cause is man-made or not), is leading to different solutions on set ups than what we’ve seen in the past. For example, going into last year’s LaNina you could pretty much bank on with it coming out of a Nino that we should have seen a lot of SE cold and multiple snow/ice chances the first half of winter to turnover to a much milder 2nd half with a torch setting in by late February… instead we got basically average the whole winter.
As far as this winter is concerned, I’m not sold on a LaNina yet, as I’m seeing a lot to indicate that we could see a near neutral ENSO for much of the winter. If a LaNina does develop I don’t think the typical rules for a 2nd year Niña will mean all that much. I’m seeing a lot of reasons to believe that the source regions of NW Canada and Alaska will not take as long to build up cold air as it has in recent years…. Most of those areas are seeing temperatures very close if not just below average this summer whereas the last couple years they have been setting heat records. If I had to guess right now, I think many of us in the southeast will see a lot of swings to the temps where we do see some shots of actual arctic air, but on the flip side there should be periods of mild air as well and temperatures end up close to average overall. The key to the staying power on the milder periods of course will be how much the SER is able to flex… if the ENSO does stay neutral going into the winter we should see a very active STJ that would help keep the SER at bay.
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Who knows,but if I'm being honset, I have accepted that those us east of the Mountains might not get a "real winter" for a long time, where we actually get true arctic cold and winter storms deep into the south .The SER has been the dominant feature and Pacific hasn't favorable for us in a while. I find it hard to belive that much will fundamentally channge in the 2021/22 winter. Summer isn't even over yet,so things can change,but it's best to safe,so I will just go with warmth and no snow/cold for people south of the I-40 corrdior areas regarding the east of the mouantains,tho the 2021/22 winter in the western SE(west of the mountains) might be interesting, just like Feb of this year.
 
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