Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

[packfan98]

Here's JB's video for today:

 

[Stormdoc]

More recently I remember 2009/10 was painful for RDU, still a good winter on the average, but witnessed storm after storm from December on nailing Roxboro and places North repeatedly.

 

[Snowman63]

There was also a Major Storm for parts of Northwest MS and Memphis before Christmas that year. I believe I found a report a couple days ago that stated there was still 10 inches of snow on the ground for Memphis, Christmas Day.

Yes, Memphis received 14" of snow on December 23,1963 and also recorded a record low of -13 on December 24, 1963. This was the 1st of two Winter storms that month; the next one was further South-East covering Alabama and Middle Tennessee.

Here is a video of the December 23, 1963 snow in Memphis.

 

[Kylo]

More recently I remember 2009/10 was painful for RDU, still a good winter on the average, but witnessed storm after storm from December on nailing Roxboro and places North repeatedly.

And southeast of us too.

 

[MichaelJ]

Here is the new Pioneer Model forecast which greatly resembles the EPS

 

[Snowfan]

Here is the new Pioneer Model forecast which greatly resembles the EPS

Holy crap that’s cold!

 

[SnowNiner]

And southeast of us too.

Yeah, there's always a lot of talk about 09-10 but I don't remember it being that great for CLT either. I think we had 2-3 events but they were pretty minor, nickel and dimes. February 26-27 2004 was my jam.

 

[Jon]

Here is the new Pioneer Model forecast which greatly resembles the EPS

I believe the pioneer “model” aka a whole bunch of years thrown into a climate composite and called a model, hasn’t done well since they started it. It’s always too cold (imagine that)

Last year’s:

Reality:

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[ForsythSnow]

I believe the pioneer “model” aka a whole bunch of years thrown into a climate composite and called a model, hasn’t done well since they started it. It’s always too cold (imagine that)

Last year’s:

Reality:

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Looks more like a general idea of temperature differences that should be reduced in severity. It's only existed a few years right? Any other years we can compare?

 

[SnowNiner]

I believe the pioneer “model” aka a whole bunch of years thrown into a climate composite and called a model, hasn’t done well since they started it. It’s always too cold (imagine that)

Last year’s:

Reality:

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

AKA, weenie analog model. Going to go ahead and not expect that 500 pattern either.

 

[Jon]

Looks more like a general idea of temperature differences that should be reduced in severity. It's only existed a few years right? Any other years we can compare?

I wouldn’t say busting 1.5-2C widespread for the entire US is a general idea, but I guess it could have busted extremely warm or something so I get it.

It is new. I think there’s a couple more years you could compare (at least one more)...the problem is obvious. The big red blob under Greenland that never happened in reality. The “pioneer model” has a bunch of years with a -NAO that never happened.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Jon]

Another example Winter 2016-17

Pioneer Model

Reality

This isn’t pioneer but it’s still Bastardi

Lesson: JB has a cold bias. Lol

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I love how due we are here in the upstate. I feel something brewing this year

Another example Winter 2016-17

Pioneer Model

Reality

This isn’t pioneer but it’s still Bastardi

Lesson: JB has a cold bias. Lol

JB said the Pioneer model does better with cold winters. Idk. We shall see

 

[NoSnowATL]

I love how due we are here in the upstate. I feel something brewing this year

JB said the Pioneer model does better with cold winters. Idk. We shall see

That’s like saying a thief like open doors.

 

[Jon]

I love how due we are here in the upstate. I feel something brewing this year

JB said the Pioneer model does better with cold winters. Idk. We shall see

They’re basically saying “our model works when winter is cold because we always forecast cold winters”


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Storm5]

To hell with the pioneer, what do the French and German models show ??? models for everyone !!!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Brent]

I don’t know what the hell happened in December of 1963 . But from what Webber and others have posted , if J.B. nails this I will 100 percent slosh in the Tub with him because the general theme from most is December will be above normal temp wise

its 1 of only 3 winters there's been more than a foot of snow here(looks like it was January 1964 here actually)

All in

 

[Tarheel1]

Looks like the pioneer model has some algorithms from the DGEX!

 

[SD]

I really want to see where we are in reality around Thanksgiving and what the models are spitting out for early December. The ridging across the north Pacific into Alaska and the arctic circle along with the Scandinavian ridge has me intrigued.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

 

[cd2play]

Had to shower after watching it.

Why shower, when you can slosh in the tub?