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Wintry Valentines Weekend Potential ?

00z Euro definitely a step in the right direction here. The big problem all winter is no model consistency. A step forward this run, but the question is can we keep stepping forward tomorrow or do we follow the trends all winter and take a lateral step or a step backward on the next set of runs?

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WRAL says that snow lovers in the triangle will be disappointed about this Sunday system as “our northern communities” will see this most of the snow if there is any. How often do we here that in the Raleigh area? Haha. I know the models are all over the place and of course it still bears watching... and watch we will do as we’ve seen this movie before and always with different endings.


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Trough looks alot better vs last run.
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Here's Bernie Rayno's idea for this storm. He says he may have to include DC and Philly, but this is this the highlighted area for snow potential. He focuses on the 500mb pattern for alot of storms. He doesn't think the out to sea solution is likely right now.
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Be interesting to watch how this unfolds on the RDPS as our system will get inside 90hrs latter today. Some models do well with certain patterns/weighted features at times than others. This season that might be/might not be the case as to why the RDPS has been killing it for my neck of the woods. Here's the 6z run . It might just be the case where everything has been so NS dominated, that it has the leg up on all the others, higher skill set. Notice that 2 contour NS vort.

500hv.conus.png
 
NCSNOW said:
Be interesting to watch how this unfolds on the RDPS as our system will get inside 90hrs latter today. Some models do well with certain patterns/weighted features at times than others. This season that might be/might not be the case as to why the RDPS has been killing it for my neck of the woods. Here's the 6z run . It might just be the case where everything has been so NS dominated, that it has the leg up on all the others, higher skill set. Notice that 2 contour NS vort.

500hv.conus.png
Click to expand...
The piece of energy at the top of the trough in Southern Canada is key. The further west it can hang back, the better the chance of the trough going neutral or even negative tilt causing the surface low to be closer to the coast IMO.

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stephend122080 said:
Here's Bernie Rayno's idea for this storm. He says he may have to include DC and Philly, but this is this the highlighted area for snow potential. He focuses on the 500mb pattern for alot of storms. He doesn't think the out to sea solution is likely right now.
6739daed934a4785ccb6eb1bc38eb44b.jpg


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Click to expand...
Very close to what I said a few days ago just chew off the western edges by 4 counties and spot on actually. I can’t believe some are saying Raleigh is out of the game when actually they are in a more favorable spot than say Boone!
 
NCSNOW said:
Be interesting to watch how this unfolds on the RDPS as our system will get inside 90hrs latter today. Some models do well with certain patterns/weighted features at times than others. This season that might be/might not be the case as to why the RDPS has been killing it for my neck of the woods. Here's the 6z run . It might just be the case where everything has been so NS dominated, that it has the leg up on all the others, higher skill set. Notice that 2 contour NS vort.

500hv.conus.png
Click to expand...
06z RGEM is most similar to the 00z UKMET but the overall trend seems to be heading this direction with that strong, possible closed ULL diving out of Manitoba/Ontario playing a bigger role. KMA went the most nuts with this idea. Manitoba Mauler time?!

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RAH thoughts, seems I've read this story before

The critical forecast elements here remain the same. 1)Just how far
offshore the coastal low develops; 2) the evolution(timing,
magnitude, and track)of the trailing upper wave/trough into the
region; 3) How much, if any interaction will occur between these 2
features.

Based on latest guidance, the models have the coastal low too far
offshore to be a major player for central NC. Thus, the bulk of
precip/forcing will have to come from the upper trough. In this
case, thermal profiles initially would support rain through
midday/early afternoon. However, cooling, aloft and in the low-
levels, would yield increasing probabilities for a change-over to
snow during the mid/late afternoon and into the evening. The big
question then is that once the atmosphere is cold enough to support
all snow, will we have enough liquid qpf to get any measurable snow
before precip ends. Right now, it does not look good for measurable
snow across central NC.
 
SD said:
That ukmet run was so close to being something special but imo we need to open up the wave in the lakes and feed it into the back of the trough
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Yeah it needs some cold air injected into it, almost see a comma head trying to get going just looking at the 700mb RH map. It was very close to something

700rh.conus.png
 
SD said:
That ukmet run was so close to being something special but imo we need to open up the wave in the lakes and feed it into the back of the trough
Click to expand...
I agree. If the wave stays open and strong, perhaps it drives hard to the south and can catch the southern piece. An alternative/KMA solution is that the wave can stay open a tad longer and then close off and become the main system. The KMA has had the same solution the past two runs, with the 00z run a good bit further south. If it could take another jog south....I feel like I've made these if and but statements 1000x since joining this board already (embarrassing myself I suppose).
 
Hypsometric said:
I agree. If the wave stays open and strong, perhaps it drives hard to the south and can catch the southern piece. An alternative/KMA solution is that the wave can stay open a tad longer and then close off and become the main system. The KMA has had the same solution the past two runs, with the 00z run a good bit further south. If it could take another jog south....I feel like I've made these if and but statements 1000x since joining this board already (embarrassing myself I suppose).
Click to expand...
It's been nice to get snow so far this winter but frustrating that we have missed on what I thought could have been at least 1 6-10 type event if not 2 but the fast flow really tempered them down to what they were. I'm surprised in this flow that we haven't gotten a power house wave embedded that really went crazy but maybe the steep height gradient between the WC ridge and cold vortex in east Canada is shearing and accelerating everything so that's just not possible. Even with this storm you can see how easy it would be to dive energy into the base of the trough, tilt it, and really wind up a big low but is the flow just too fast to do so? Any semblance of -nao or a big system in SE Canada to clog the flow would be incredibly helpful
 
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